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The Dunning-Kruger Dunning-Kruger Effect

No, you’re not seeing a misprint or typo. But good on you for not not missing that.

TL;WR

If you’ve never even read the abstract from David Dunning and Justin Kruger’s “Unskilled and Unaware of it” but still insist on referring to the Dunning-Kruger Effect to try and dunk on someone, there’s a good chance you fall under its purview.

Or in simpler terms: if the shoe fits, don’t eat it.

WTF is the Dunning-Kruger Effect?

There’s a line in a W.B.Yates poem about this graph.

In a nutshell—which probably isn’t the best way to reference anything in the domain of Psychology—it’s about as simple as the political opinions of your cousin the YouTube scholar: people in general, suck at estimating how good they are at something. But people who don’t know much, don’t know they don’t know much, because they don’t know enough to know what they don’t know.

Aww you know what, fuck it, here’s the actual abstract:

People tend to hold overly favorable views of their abilities in many social and intellectual domains. The authors suggest that this overestimation occurs, in part, because people who are unskilled in these domains suffer a dual burden: Not only do these people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it. Across 4 studies, the authors found that participants scoring in the bottom quartile on tests of humor, grammar, and logic grossly overestimated their test performance and ability. Although their test scores put them in the 12th percentile, they estimated themselves to be in the 62nd. Several analyses linked this miscalibration to deficits in metacognitive skill, or the capacity to distinguish accuracy from error. Paradoxically, improving the skills of participants, and thus increasing their metacognitive competence, helped them recognize the limitations of their abilities.

Abstract from Kruger, J., & Dunning, D. (1999). Unskilled and unaware of it: how difficulties in recognizing one’s own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments.

Now that you’ve read the abstract, you may or may not be less-dumb, but at least you’re better than an assload% of the people who whip out a reference to the Dunning-Kruger effect in an argument on Facebook, as if it’s just another way of calling someone dumb. More importantly, intelligence notwithstanding, you’re less-ignorant. And in some respects that’s vastly more important of a character attribute than any ascribed to intelligence.

That’s right, being ignorant isn’t a crime. It’s not even a vice a lot of the time considering the overwhelming amount of information generated on a daily basis—the number of things you don’t know, and will never know, grows as the seconds tick by. The trick—especially when it comes to social media—is to know when you’re ignorant, and shutting the hell up on the topic until you’re up to speed on it.

Just say “Dumbass”

Look, we get it, the culture war is always escalating and you need better weapons to fight it—regardless of whether you’re on the side of forward progress, or on the side of dragging our species back into the trees to fear the darkness and fling shit at each other. But if you really want to call someone stupid, just fucking call them stupid. There are a lot of great ways to do this, created a long time ago specifically to address the situation you’re probably dealing with right now. Use one of them instead. Trying to make yourself look like some sort of galaxy brained-potato using an academic term you don’t have the best grasp on is only going to backfire and make you look dumber than the idiot you’re arguing with.

If you’ve actually taken a course on cognitive psychology and/or can read academic papers without your eyes glazing over, you’re probably okay. But you’re not the best person to judge that.

Sources and More Info

Kruger, J., & Dunning, D. (1999).Unskilled and unaware of it: how difficulties in recognizing one’s own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments. Journal of personality and social psychology77(6), 1121

Ehrlinger, J., Johnson, K., Banner, M., Dunning, D., & Kruger, J. (2008). Why the unskilled are unaware: Further explorations of (absent) self-insight among the incompetent. Organizational behavior and human decision processes, 105(1), 98-121.

Almost 1/5th of American Kids Are Now “The Fat Kid”

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80’s kids will remember “Chunk” from The Goonies. Well that affable little Hawaiian-shirted, truffle shuffler is now rapidly becoming the template for young Americans; and we’re not just talking about the basic training washout “Boogaloo” crowd. Although… yeah.

Exhibit A -hole.

But unlike the 80’s where everyone rode bikes all day smuggling aliens, vying for the role of “lovable chubby guy” in the friends group is now becoming significantly more competitive.

The poor, understaffed souls at the Centers for Disease Control just released findings from their health survey program, measuring participants’ height and weight. This particular data comes from surveys done in 2017 and 2018, with more than 2800 American children represented by respondents.

19.3% of kids ages 2 to 19 are obese, up from 18.5% in the 2015-2016 national survey. While the increase isn’t statistically significant in the sense that it indicates an upward trend, it does show that we’re certainly not seeing a reduction in cases of childhood obesity despite massive public health and information campaigns targeting it.

The Skinny About the Fat

It’s worth keeping in mind a few other things:

First, fortunately, children are still less likely to be obese than adults. See the following figure. However, an astute reader will notice that this implies that this is almost entirely a behavior-related condition, and one that is made worse over time by poor choices.

Overweight and Obesity

Next, and perhaps more pressing is the effect of the current pandemic on overweight and obese children. With kids at home and unable to participate in sports or even recess, the likelihood this trend is going to reverse is low; especially when considering the likelihood of parents trying to juggle home schooling in between Zoom meetings. Stuffing a Hot Pocket into your toddler’s screaming face isn’t anyone’s definition of good parenting, but we can understand the temptation.

Too on-the-nose?

And that’s just factoring in those parents who are fortunate enough to have jobs where they can work from home. For the ones who are essentially shit out of luck and relying on savings or unemployment checks, garbage food is generally cheaper in many cases, if not simply more convenient.

In before “bUt thEY caN jUsT eaT BeANs aNd rICe”. Yeah buddy, we know. We all know. Some of us actually lived that childhood.

Editorial: No Really – Wash Your Goddamn Hands

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Let’s just start this off properly. I’m not an epidemiologist, a virologist, or an expert in pandemics or infectious disease. But neither are you so shut the fuck up and wash your hands. No, seriously, wash your hands right now. Put down the phone, pull up your pants, and go wash your hands.

And later, when it’s been a few minutes, wash them again. Wash them every chance you get. Also, stop touching your face.

Special exceptions granted for extraordinary circumstances

Why are we doing this now, three months after this pandemic started ramping up? That’s because you disgusting trash people are being weapons-grade idiots: Coronavirus parties in Kentucky, the Georgia Governor didn’t know asymptomatic (i.e, people without visible symptoms aka you…probably) could spread the virus, just Avengers-threat-level stupid.

You cousin-humpers voted for this mental munchkin.

For months, you have all been receiving gentle reminders about handwashing – adorable hamsters and cool infographics teaching you how to properly wash your hands. Even though that’s something all of you should have known how to do before. But you’re disgusting trash people, so I guess it can be forgiven. So why is washing your fucking hands so important? Well, let’s first talk about how the Coronavirus is spread: you (yes, you, reading this) are probably an asymptomatic carrier. Or maybe you’re symptomatic and an asshole by going out in public. Either way, in a pandemic lets assume we’re all carrying the virus or are interacting with people who are carrying the virus.

As an asymptomatic carrier, you breathe. Unfortunate for the rest of us in some cases, I know, but you do. When you breathe, you send out little droplets of disgusting nonsense from your lungs. These are invisible. These land on stuff. You touch stuff. Then, you touch your face. When you touch the virus, it settles on your hands like white people on an undiscovered continent. It builds houses, farms, irrigation ditches, skyscrapers, infrastructure. There’s probably a stock exchange where they sell futures on just how badly they can fuck you up once they get inside your body.

Needless to say, just imagine your disgusting, unwashed hands are early America and Coronavirus is an eager European power moving in and making it their own. Then you touch your face and your hands become the Mayflower, transporting all those hand-virus pilgrims to the promised land of your face. (Yes, I know the Mayflower went to America and not from America but just deal with it). And what does your face have? All sorts of awesome ways for a virus to enter your body and collectively fuck shit up. And yeah, you are probably saying “bUt iTs lEsS dEaDlY tHaN tHe fLu.” Well, first, no, second, fuck no, third, fuck you.

D: all of the above

And even if its not going to kill you there is a 20% chance it’ll put you in the hospital. It put a 30 year old marathoner on a ventilator. Do you run marathons? No?

Didn’t think so. [Editor’s note: combat dry-humping in BJJ for an hour is not marathon running.]

Contaminating a rock, circa 1620

So, enter soap. And water. What is soap? It’s a magnet. On one end, it binds to water. On the other end, it binds to fat (okay, lipids, but they’re basically the same thing for these purposes). That’s why its so good at cleaning oil-slicked ducks. If its good enough for those ducks, its good enough for your disgusting trash hands. Now, why is that important? Because most viruses and bacteria – including coronavirus – have a lipid layer/envelope/trench coat/whatever. That means that soap will bind to that layer and to water. And when you rinse the soap away the virus is taken with it.

If you managed to read this diagram without having a stroke, you’re probably not the people who need to read this article.

That’s a lame visual. Let’s try again:

Remember our cool little virus country that is set up on our hands every time we touch something? Imagine soap and water as a tidal wave of acid. It engulfs the country, it burns every last thing to the ground, and then it recedes back into the ocean. It takes everything with it – the bodies of the virus their stupid little houses, and even virus McDonalds. It’s Sherman’s March to the Atlantic. It’s scorched earth. It obliterates everything. “bUt I uSe hAnD sAnItiZeR”. Cool. Hand sanitizer is like poison gas. It kills everything it touches but it leaves the house, the bodies, and the McDonalds on your hand.

Something like this ridiculous weeb crap

Then, you go and touch you face like a disgusting trash person and now all of that is on your face. And guess what! There was one survivor, coughing and gasping, who limps its way into your body and BOOM – infected.

Is this what the kids are calling “Steampunk”?

So, wash your hands you disgusting trash people. We are at 300k cases in the United States. Stop being a fucking idiot and wash your hands. And if you’re one of the people who don’t think COVID-19 is serious enough to justify the measures we’ve taken, well, just pretend it’s practice for a pandemic that is deadly enough to get you to wash your fucking hands.

12 Coronavirus Quarantine And Updates

With the literal shit about to hit the figurative fan, Dr. Jason Goldsmith comes back on to provide information from the front lines about what to expect in the coming weeks, that you’re probably not getting from your chosen news source.

Wash your damn hands and stay your ass home.

Listen here:

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11 Comics And Culture With Steve Mix

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Have you ever thought about getting into comics? Well comic shop owner, writer, and combat veteran Steve Mix comes on the podcast to answer questions about where to start, the best new series out now, and the influence the medium has on the broader culture.

In rough order we discuss:

  • “Comicsgate” vs. Social Justice Warriors
  • Hypersexualization of comics
  • The ridiculous “CW-verse” including Legends of Tomorrow
  • Phrost ruining the audio by insisting everyone watch a clip from Legends of Tomorrow where they all turn into a giant furry muppet to fight Satan or something
  • Steve’s recommendation for new comics
  • Where to start reading for people new to the hobby
  • The government of China being an asshole
  • Saudi Prince Mohammad bin Salman having a big donkey ass
  • And Steve tells us some sitcom-worthy stories of running a comic shop.

As promised, for reference, here’s a picture of MBS and his big donk. Don’t bonesaw us bro.

Instead of a banana we’re using the world’s richest man, for scale

Listen Here:

Subscribe to the podcast here

The Art of Fighting BS Podcast on Spotify The Art of Fighting BS Podcast on iTunes The Art of Fighting BS Podcast on Google Play The Art of Fighting BS Podcast on Stitcher

Look at These Ignorant Dipshits

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No, we’re not even going to bother with a description. These people are ignorant, and they are dipshits. Here you go. Look at them:

Shut up.
I hate you.
Goddamnit.
Jesus christ
You’re cool, Petebut that asshole…
I want to address this guy with a foot in his “Full Moon”. Uranus.
la;ksdfj;lkjasdf
Imagine cancelling your face, fucko
You couldn’t project a baking soda volcano
This is literally a piss take.
♫ WORD SALAD: YUMMY YUMMY ♫
ALWAYS TRUST THE MEDICAL OPINION OF SOMEONE WHO CAN’T FUCKING SPELL “FLU” CORRECTLY FUCKING FUCK
GAR-LIC MY BALLS
THAT’S NOT HOW FUCKING pH WORKS YOU GODDAMN ;laskdfj STOMACH ACID. METABOLIC ALKALOSIS. YOUR MOTHER
YOU ARE CORDIALLY INVITED TO GO FUCK YOURSELF
Winner of Dipshittiest Dipshit? Why is this guy a thing?
I ONLY HAVE HALF A BOTTLE OF SCOTCH LEFT AND IT’S NOT CURING ME OF THESE IDIOTS
FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCK

10 COVID-19: Nature’s Way of Saying “OK Boomer”

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There is a lot of noise being made about the Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), especially now that the WHO has classified it as a pandemic. Dr. Jason Goldsmith, MD, PHD comes back on the show to explain the particulars and cut through the BS.

Also, we make some grim jokes. Because, of course we do.

Listen below or click the links to the right to subscribe and listen on your favorite podcasting platform.

Oh You’re an INTJ? STFU – The Myers-Briggs Test is BS

The Myers-Briggs Type Indicator is basically astrology for slightly-less-dumb people. Nonetheless, it’s probably the most popular personality assessment in the world. That’s a big f’n problem.

Whether you’re a Kyle or a Karen, a Chad or a sad virgin (INTJ), what you aren’t is a damn Dungeons and Dragons character that fits neatly into one of 16 classes with corresponding special abilities unique to each. That’s not how anything works, except maybe that failed saving throw against deception that caused you to fall for this bullshit in the first place (seriously, how low is your INT score?).

Someone rolled all 3s.

A Brief History of the BS

The MBTI was created by two ladies with a rudimentary college education. Katharine Cook Briggs had a degree in Agriculture, and Isabel Briggs Myers seems to have dropped out of college to get married. They’re often characterized as “housewives” in criticism of the MBTI, but to be charitable, that’s somewhat unfair. Both were, however, fans of the early psychologist Carl Jung, and based much of the test on his work.

And that’s the catch: Carl Jung was to Psychology what a Hot Pocket is to nutrition: sure, you might feel satisfied for a short period of time, but eventually it’ll become clear that it was—and you are now—filled with piping-hot garbage. Jung was into some hoakey shit including (and appropriately), Astrology, along with ESP, Telekinesis, and other force abilities.

Have you heard the tragedy of Darth Kermit the “Wise”?

You’d think that would be enough to make anyone with aspirations of being taken seriously as a scholar to distance themselves from Jungian concepts, but these things are precisely what attracts a lot of people to them in the first place. Some intellectuals, like Jordan Peterson (above), wrap themselves up in ephemeral Jungian gobbledygook to justify their own non-falsifiable beliefs. And that term describes much of Jung’s actual work in the field of Psychology after splitting from Freud: non-falsifiable, and consequently, low in external validity which is just a tiny bit necessary if you’re going to try and meddle in other people’s minds and lives. This isn’t about Jung though, so if some uncomfortable fee-fees are welling up from your Shadow, go clean your room, eat a plate of raw hamburger, and then read the rest.

This stock photo described itself as “Handsome suspicious man looking at camera”.

The Synchronicity of a Multi-million-dollar Industry

If you’ve ever taken an MBTI test at your workplace as a part of the employment process it might be a good idea to dust off the resume: you’re employed by idiots—and not just ordinary idiots, the special kind of idiots that fill out those ridiculous “Which Game of Thrones Character Are You?” questionnaires. If judgments are being made that affect people’s ability to pay for their rent, healthcare, and feed their children, shouldn’t they be based on actual science instead of bullshit?

Of course not, not when there’s money to be made selling that bullshit to people who should, but don’t, know better. The field of Personality Psychology is actually one of the most empirically-valid of all the disciplines, up there with Neuropsych and Behavioral Genetics. Yet the implementation of psychometrics outside of academia seems to lose something in translation when it hits the human resources departments, and perhaps chief among the examples of this is the widespread use of the MBTI in corporate America.

According to Lillian Cunningham at the Washington Post, CPP, the company with exclusive rights to the MBTI test, pulls in upwards of $20 million a year selling the bullshit test to under-informed, overpaid PowerPoint pushers.

This one described itself as “Bearded man in glasses feeling surprised”. Us too, buddy.

TL;DR (not a MB personality type)

The MBTI wasn’t created by actual psychologists, let alone personality experts: it was created by superfans of an early psychologist who had as many—if not more—bad ideas than good: Carl Jung. It’s basically the fan-fiction of personality tests.

The MBTI has poor external validity: it does not produce empirically-valid data that applies to practical, real-world use. It does, however, produce a bunch of money and wastes employee time.

It has garbage test-retest reliability: the same person taking the test multiple times can receive multiple results. If assigning letters to your co-workers is genuinely important to you it’d be just as useful to drop a can of alphabet soup off your workplace’s roof and read the sidewalk. It’d be significantly cheaper too.

If you, for some reason need to do a personality inventory on yourself or others, the most empirically-valid, reliable test is still the classic Five-Factor Model which scores people on Openness to Experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. Unfortunately, this doesn’t sort you into Hogwarts houses or assign you bonus character attributes; it just gives you scientifically valid data.

We should probably apologize to this guy for abusing our stock photo license deal

Further Reading

09 Blackmonk: SAMBO, Street Fighting, Punk Rock

What’s it like to have someone actually gouge your eye out AND grab your dudebits in a fight and still win that fight? This guy can tell you!

On this episode of The Art of Fighting BS podcast, we have an international SAMBO competitor who goes by the name of “Blackmonk” on the Bullshido forums. He’s also the frontman for the band Bullshit Detector, if that ain’t just f’n awesome.

We discuss what it’s like to compete overseas, the difference between how Americans and how Russians train, and he’s brought along a few grizzly war stories from the Austin punk rock scene.

Submessenger, Slideyfoot, Naszir, Blackmonk, and JNP