1. #1
    Wounded Ronin's Avatar
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    Demand for ammo soft?

    So a while back I bought some stocks in firearms companies thinking the prices would go up if a bunch of Democrats got elected. All gained a bit of value and I sold them except for Vista Outdoor, which would have wiped out the small amount of gain that I made had I sold it. So I held the stock but now it's fallen to like a quarter of its value. It's hilarious because Ruger, for example, is still doing much better. So, I was like, what the hell? What's wrong with Vista Outdoor?

    Then I found an article where the company claimed there was this prolonged period of unprecedented soft demand for ammo: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/am...tom-2019-02-07

    Shares of Vista Outdoor Inc. plunged to a record low in active trade Thursday, after the ammunition and outdoor recreation products seller missed sales expectations and cut its outlook, with Chief Executive Chris Metz indicating he didn’t know when the weakness would end.

    “This period of soft demand has persisted longer than any previous market cycle in recent history,” Metz said on the post-earnings conference call with analysts, according to a transcript provided by FactSet. “There’s simply no precedent for this trend.”

    He said the company has studied a series of data points in an attempt to get a read on the trend, including National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), point-of-sale data, consumer surveys and federal excise tax data. But whatever metric you choose, “we see a continued challenge,” Metz said.
    And I'm like, really? Why would demand for ammo be super soft? Do people not see gun control coming back as an election year issue?

    I'm just saying, if tens of thousands of rounds of ammo can disappear into America's garages the morning it's delivered to retailers just because of Barack Obama, it's illogical for the same thing not to happen with a Democratic party that is increasingly and extremely anti-firearm, to a greater extent than Obama ever was. You would think that if someone is afraid of that they would get ahead of the curb and start stockpiling now, if you assume that they exhibited stockpiling behaviors back then. Otherwise they would be inconsistent.

    I mean the stock price is literally like a quarter of what it used to be. I am left confused.

    If there's one thing that playing Fallout should have taught America, you can never have too much ammo!
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  2. #2
    Cassius's Avatar
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    I expect demand is soft because people who were worried about such things stocked up when the prolonged ammo shortage post Sandy Hook finally came to an end. I definitely stocked up in 2016 and have been replacing what I shoot since then. Vista Outdoors is also being run into the ground by a bunch of incompetents, so investor faith is really low.
    "No. Listen to me because I know what I'm talking about here." -- Hannibal

  3. #3
    Permalost's Avatar
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    If your other firearm stocks all went up, maybe the outlier company is just looking to blame outside forces for its low performance?

  4. #4
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    "You are wrong. Why? Because you move like a pregnant yak and talk like a spazzing 'I train UFC' noob." -DCS

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  5. #5
    Cassius's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BKR View Post
    Index Funds
    Fact. I stopped investing in individual stocks quite some time ago. And I'm mostly out of mutual funds too. Love me some ETFs.
    "No. Listen to me because I know what I'm talking about here." -- Hannibal

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