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  1. #11

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    Quote Originally Posted by BackFistMonkey View Post
    I don't believe that for a split second. They should have a much better idea. They have to have a better idea if they know its current location and speed. They may not know if it will break up completely but they know when and where it will start hitting the transition.
    I concur. No way you could design something as complex as a space lab, then figure out a way to get it into outer space, then while its up there get it to stay there (until now) and then have no idea where its going to crash.

  2. #12
    cualltaigh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BackFistMonkey View Post
    Also article (OP) was first posted October 13 2017 then reposted again yesterday with very little change in content.

    American sources (space.com) put this out this out on the 3rd of this month but are still using the ESA's location estimate and I still don't believe it.
    "China's Big Space Lab May Fall to Earth This Month"
    https://www.space.com/39862-china-ti...-estimate.html
    The latest ESA updates place re-entry between March 29 and April 9.







    http://blogs.esa.int/rocketscience/2...entry-updates/
    Dum spiro, spero.
    Tada gan iarracht.

  3. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kravbizarre View Post
    I concur. No way you could design something as complex as a space lab, then figure out a way to get it into outer space, then while its up there get it to stay there (until now) and then have no idea where its going to crash.

    You underestimate my people!

  4. #14
    BackFistMonkey's Avatar
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    Awesome thank you.
    I don't know why google was giving me a hard time on this one. Probly user error.
    I still don't understand their massive estimated impact zone. If they can see it from the ground they have to be able to plot it... unless it is spinning and randomly firing its stabilizers or leaking.

    The reports did say it (might?) has tetrazine on board so while it may be out of control or unresponsive it might still be doing things that are making projecting its entry difficult.



    Quote Originally Posted by cualltaigh View Post
    The latest ESA updates place re-entry between March 29 and April 9.







    http://blogs.esa.int/rocketscience/2...entry-updates/
    I don't mean to sound bitter, cold, or cruel, but I am, so that's how it comes out.
    BILL HICKS,
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  5. #15
    cualltaigh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BackFistMonkey View Post
    Awesome thank you.
    I don't know why google was giving me a hard time on this one. Probly user error.
    I still don't understand their massive estimated impact zone. If they can see it from the ground they have to be able to plot it... unless it is spinning and randomly firing its stabilizers or leaking.

    The reports did say it (might?) has tetrazine on board so while it may be out of control or unresponsive it might still be doing things that are making projecting its entry difficult.
    Given it's low earth orbit (~250km), Tiangong-1's orbital frequency (time it takes to do 1 lap around the earth) is around 90 minutes. Until they get the window of re-entry below a day, it could land anywhere within the green part of the map I linked. They'll have to refine that window down to a number of minutes in order to have a reasonably meaningful warning area.

    http://www.heavens-above.com/orbit.aspx?satid=37820
    Dum spiro, spero.
    Tada gan iarracht.

  6. #16
    BackFistMonkey's Avatar
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    OK I can now make out the path. Green on green doesn't do it for me at all. I wonder if the infograph in the OP article is the same way. I bet I have seen that pic or a version of it five times today and never once noticed the green paths... and have been irked about it all day, needlessly.

    I am now shamelessly blaming it on my eyes getting old but blues and greens have always been tricky for me. I just don't see them correctly. Aqua on teal gives me fucking fits.

    I had hoped the ESA had its **** together. It seems it does.

    This graphic is crazy now that I have taken a minute to look it over. X and Y are both dates, which is weird right off bat. I like how they did it.
    I don't mean to sound bitter, cold, or cruel, but I am, so that's how it comes out.
    BILL HICKS,
    1961-1994

  7. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by cualltaigh View Post
    The latest ESA updates place re-entry between March 29 and April 9.







    http://blogs.esa.int/rocketscience/2...entry-updates/
    ok panic over England isnt in the drop zone let it fall.
    King without a crown

  8. #18

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    Quote Originally Posted by ChenPengFi View Post
    You underestimate my people!
    China numba wahn

  9. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChenPengFi View Post
    You underestimate my people!
    I just assumed that they have carried out a calculation of cost to resolve vs cost for compensation for deaths and went with the cheaper option and that isn’t a race/nation specific comment as we see that thinking everywhere in the world these days.
    King without a crown

  10. #20
    cualltaigh's Avatar
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    This is a funky little tool, it's a real time tracker showing the current position of the satellite:

    http://www.n2yo.com/?s=37820
    Dum spiro, spero.
    Tada gan iarracht.

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