Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Great Recession part deuce?

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    #61
    Wassup, Dung. Should I get ready to buy or are we ef-ed?
    Combatives training log.

    Gezere: paraphrase from Bas Rutten, Never escalate the level of violence in fight you are losing. :D

    Drum thread

    Pavel Tsatsouline: kettlebell workouts give you “cardio without the dishonour of aerobics”.

    "Disliking someone is not evidence of wrongdoing or malfeasance or even bias." --Dung Beatles

    Comment


      #62
      Originally posted by Diesel_tke View Post
      Wassup, Dung. Should I get ready to buy or are we ef-ed?
      Me thinks it's the time to buy if hanging for the long run. Just a gut feeling, no claim of expertise.

      Sadly, I'm hardly liquid at this point. Planning to buy wife out and remain rather than relocate.
      Carter Hargrave's Jeet Can't Do

      http://www.bullshido.net/forums/showthread.php?t=31636

      Comment


        #63
        Originally posted by Dung Beatles View Post
        Well, clearly the disease is the worst part but hold on to your assets, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

        International markets are dropping like stones. The bump on Friday does not look like it's providing a stabilizing influence.

        I think we're set to see another big drop.

        Edit: It's 6:50am, DJIA has fallen −2,744.93 (11.84%) and hit the circuit breaker.

        So be glad you didn't buy anything. Just hold tight.
        See I am going to start posting again just for stock advice. I don't really know stocks at all but everyone is saying there will be a big opportunity soon.
        Lone Wolf McQuade Final Fight: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmrDe_mYUXg

        Comment


          #64
          Well, the market is so low that I don't think you'd have to wait much longer than two years to see a big boost no matter what happens.

          I think the real shock is going to come from Q2 and Q3 earnings reports.

          I expect big companies are going to have to have mass layoffs soon to cut overhead. Franchise restaurants, service industry and real estate financials are all going to fucking suck. Emergency refinancing is probably going to keep some players afloat.

          I'll put it to you this way: if you buy now, it probably will come roaring back by 2022 and this will have been a good place. I think the true low is closer to 17,000 or 18,000 but 21,000 is probably low enough to buy without much long term threat (beyond 2 years).

          Foreign markets are up right now so I expect tomorrow to have another bump which will last only as long as it takes for people to see what the early damage is to Q1 earnings reports. I think the market is still a little too optimistic with all the bailout tactics flying. It doesn't matter what the Federal Government does if unemployment is 20%. The market will crash and stay crashed at that level and that will roll through the banks in the form of mortgage, credit card and other loan defaults.
          "Pave the way for the little guy, Caligula!" Harry Solomon, September 28, 1999

          Comment


            #65
            I would consider looking into the pharmaceutical companies that manufacture anti-viral drugs and medical equipment like ventilators.

            They’ll be ramping up production soon I imagine.
            Shut the hell up and train.

            Comment


              #66
              The problem I keep bumping up against is that, fundamentally, if there isn't any consumption it doesn't matter what stimulus measures the Gov't takes.

              Economics is supply and demand. Right now we have a bunch of demand for some very limited things and not nearly enough demand for other things. Just like it doesn't matter how cheap you make swimming Trunks in Antartica, no one is going to buy them.

              See, without consumption the economy will continue to fail. The whole system is predicated on uninterrupted consumption with seasonal industries.

              Banks can't balance books with no income. Bonds don't hold their value if they are full of bad debts that won't be paid. See what I'm saying here?

              People are going to have to go back to doing the things they were doing before if the economy is going to recover. That's how that the whole things works.

              It's way too volatile but I don't think we've seen the bottom yet.
              "Pave the way for the little guy, Caligula!" Harry Solomon, September 28, 1999

              Comment


                #67
                Here's some perspective: as of right now, all the market gains under Trump are gone.

                The Dow is right where it was the week before he was inaugurated, January 2017.

                It's like somebody hit a big reset button.

                Except for Costco. They are on schedule to employ half of America. This will be my job soon.
                ​​​​​​
                '�I am no advocate of passivity,� Coffin Mott said in an 1860 speech. �Quakerism, as I understand it, does not mean quietism. The early Friends were agitators; disturbers of the peace; and were more obnoxious in their day to charges, which are now so freely made, than we are.�'

                My Glossary: https://www.bullshido.net/forums/sho...d.php?t=129294

                Comment


                  #68
                  Fed announces that unemployment may soar as high as 30%.

                  Futures fall maximum allowable. Expect a huge drop in the stock market tomorrow.
                  "Pave the way for the little guy, Caligula!" Harry Solomon, September 28, 1999

                  Comment


                    #69
                    Originally posted by Dung Beatles View Post
                    Fed announces that unemployment may soar as high as 30%.

                    Futures fall maximum allowable. Expect a huge drop in the stock market tomorrow.
                    It is not yet the time to talk about the next Depression?

                    If not...welcome to Costco.

                    I love you.
                    '�I am no advocate of passivity,� Coffin Mott said in an 1860 speech. �Quakerism, as I understand it, does not mean quietism. The early Friends were agitators; disturbers of the peace; and were more obnoxious in their day to charges, which are now so freely made, than we are.�'

                    My Glossary: https://www.bullshido.net/forums/sho...d.php?t=129294

                    Comment


                      #70
                      The Fed can print dollars as much dollars as the world needs.

                      It will be ok .
                      King without a crown

                      Comment


                        #71
                        Originally posted by W. Rabbit View Post

                        It is not yet the time to talk about the next Depression?

                        If not...welcome to Costco.

                        I love you.
                        No, any talk of a depression is still premature and any conjecture about it is an even worse kind of apocalypse fantasizing.

                        May not even really be possible UNLESS supply chains very badly to totally break down or this disease mutates to the point where we need to start on a new vaccine by the time we have a vaccine for this version.

                        If that's the case, we may have solved our energy and green house gas problem for a while because Americans and the rest of the world will have started to starve to death. If that crazy unlikely situation were to happen then I can't imagine realistic discussions of WW3 and multiple mass murder genocides would be very far behind.

                        If suddenly the US dollar spirals out of control into hyper deflation or hyperinflation, then sure. One thing is certain, you and me and almost everybody else are totally screwed and would likely end up paupers comparative to where we are now.
                        "Pave the way for the little guy, Caligula!" Harry Solomon, September 28, 1999

                        Comment


                          #72
                          OK. So this double speak by the Fed on the surface may sound reassuring but it could be potentially god damned insane.
                          '
                          "The Federal Reserve on Monday announced it would purchase an unlimited amount of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities in order to support the financial market. "
                          This is dangerous territory for a number of reasons. It could be halted any time because its the Fed but taken to extremes I don't like this shit at all.

                          I will note that it seems to be timed to influence the stock market this morning to offset the horrific 30% unemployment estimate from the US Gov't.

                          It's anybody's guess what the market will do today but I'm guessing that it will bounce.

                          https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fe...ams-2020-03-23
                          "Pave the way for the little guy, Caligula!" Harry Solomon, September 28, 1999

                          Comment


                            #73
                            As expected, stock futures bounced steeply as of a few minutes ago.

                            https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quot...DJIA%20FUTURES
                            "Pave the way for the little guy, Caligula!" Harry Solomon, September 28, 1999

                            Comment

                            Collapse

                            Edit this module to specify a template to display.

                            Working...
                            X