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    #46
    Originally posted by W. Rabbit View Post

    Not yet. This is the part where I wait for Dung to yell "BUY BUY BUY" and I start trying to capitalize (with what little capital I have) on Boeing's misfortune.

    I haven't traded in about 20 years, ever since I sunk my first paychecks into Sun Microsystems and lost them to the Void (not my fault, man. Who knew?).
    So, if the market hits 17,000. You can't fucking lose. Anything below that is probably safe as fuck. If the market does some crazy shit and hits 11,000 or lower put every fucking penny you have in it and eat Ramen noodles for the next X period of time. Every spare penny.

    I just wish this shit wasn't timed like it is because I was going to sell my house this year. I don't think that's going to happen now. This is fucking frustrating. I'm not liquid enough to seriously invest.
    "Pave the way for the little guy, Caligula!" Harry Solomon, September 28, 1999

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      #47
      Originally posted by Dung Beatles View Post

      Your future is fine. Beyond the collapse of civilization, your portfolio is going to recoup very soon. This is nasty bug, not the black death. The market will correct again and return to it's previous highs within a few years, if not a matter of months or weeks.
      That is how I am playing it. I keep wishing I had converted to cash or bonds, but I'm not going to retire for several more years, anyway.
      Falling for Judo since 1980

      "You are wrong. Why? Because you move like a pregnant yak and talk like a spazzing 'I train UFC' noob." -DCS

      "The best part of getting you worked up is your backpack full of irony and lies." -It Is Fake

      "Banning BKR is like kicking a Quokka. It's foolishness of the first order." - Raycetpfl

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        #48
        Originally posted by Dung Beatles View Post

        So, if the market hits 17,000. You can't fucking lose. Anything below that is probably safe as fuck. If the market does some crazy shit and hits 11,000 or lower put every fucking penny you have in it and eat Ramen noodles for the next X period of time. Every spare penny.

        I just wish this shit wasn't timed like it is because I was going to sell my house this year. I don't think that's going to happen now. This is fucking frustrating. I'm not liquid enough to seriously invest.
        Boeing is up 10% today. I wish I'd bought yesterday, but I think the market is still going to trend lower. What do you feel in your heart, "wait"?

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          #49
          Originally posted by W. Rabbit View Post

          Boeing is up 10% today. I wish I'd bought yesterday, but I think the market is still going to trend lower. What do you feel in your heart, "wait"?
          Alright, I didn't post this but there has been a $1.5 Trillion bailout to the bond market a couple days ago. That's what this bounce is about in combination with the declared state of emergency. Stock prices will probably continue to climb a bit.

          However, you have to take into account that this is all in anticipation of the problems to come.

          You could buy now in the hopes that this is the bottom and that those pandemic problems either won't materialize or won't be bad enough to dislodge prices. My gut says wait because we're only up to ~2,000 known infections so far (granted without anything close to adequate testing). It hasn't even really been two weeks yet since numbers hit four digits.

          Some states don't even have known cases yet. I'm betting they do have cases, just not known. If hospitals start filling up and school closures across the country are a t hing, that's when the stock market is really going to be tested.
          "Pave the way for the little guy, Caligula!" Harry Solomon, September 28, 1999

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            #50
            We are going to see some nasty supply chain shortages if people keep panic buying like this. I grew up poor so I already have enough beans and rice to eat for a year but most people don't have sufficient dry goods to see them through a long supply shortage spell. I've seen some pictures from the local grocery store and this kind of thing can't go on much longer. Stores may need to start enforcing rationing and purchase limits soon.

            If we hit a bad enough food commodity supply SNAFU you can kiss a stable stock market goodbye.
            "Pave the way for the little guy, Caligula!" Harry Solomon, September 28, 1999

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              #51
              It was the fights at Costco in NY and GA made me think of the Costo from Idiocracy.

              If half the nation is employed by Brawndo, and you start using water on the crops, the stock drops to zero, and the now unemployed half of the country comes after you for being such a dumbass.

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                #52
                Las Vegas strip begins shutting down resort venues:

                https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/co...ob-tw-enus-677

                Remember, as these resorts shut down, it will lead to layoffs. These layoffs are going to affect everything from local real estate prices to bankruptcies and will spread out to their parent companies. They will have to fire people and mothball entire parts of their business network in order to keep their books balanced.

                Many can probably afford to do this for a few weeks. Their best bet is that warm weather will bring back the crowds to recoup some but I wouldn't count on it until there is a vaccine.

                WHat's going to kill these business is that some won't be able to pay their liabilities: leases, mortgages, corporate credit cards which will lead to liens, foreclosures and an inability to get going again fast enough to outrun the consequences of unpaid debt when they re-open.

                I'm calling it now, this will be a real recession instead of a speed bump. There are too many unknowns to know how bad the virus is going to be but most businesses survive from sale to sale and the companies that run their real estate charge them based on what they believe they can take without driving everyone out of business.

                A small store in a midsize town shopping mall costs about $10,000 in rent every month. A store on the strip? Too much to go unpaid from savings for most people. When they fail, that debt will go into their credit and that will hit the bond market in a shock wave that will continue on into bankruptcy court.

                These shut downs, whether or not they're necessary, are going to hit state, federal and local economies like a bullet. Big towns will feel it the worst. When earnings reports start getting passed around expect the market to get another big shock.
                "Pave the way for the little guy, Caligula!" Harry Solomon, September 28, 1999

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                  #53
                  I don't know if the cure is worse than the disease. I'm just saying this can't keep up like it is without major long term financial fallout.
                  "Pave the way for the little guy, Caligula!" Harry Solomon, September 28, 1999

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                    #54
                    Originally posted by Dung Beatles View Post
                    I don't know if the cure is worse than the disease. I'm just saying this can't keep up like it is without major long term financial fallout.
                    Thats how i have been thinking this weekend too.

                    The only upside is that it is happening to everyone across the globe so in theory the existing global hierarchy may remain in tact.

                    The UK seams to be doing its own thing and being heavily criticized by all the others.

                    its a dangerous strategy but could protect our economy a little more than those that have shut down.

                    The world will never be the same after this,
                    King without a crown

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                      #55
                      Well, clearly the disease is the worst part but hold on to your assets, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

                      International markets are dropping like stones. The bump on Friday does not look like it's providing a stabilizing influence.

                      I think we're set to see another big drop.

                      Edit: It's 6:50am, DJIA has fallen −2,744.93 (11.84%) and hit the circuit breaker.

                      So be glad you didn't buy anything. Just hold tight.
                      Last edited by Dung Beatles; 3/16/2020 7:53am, .
                      "Pave the way for the little guy, Caligula!" Harry Solomon, September 28, 1999

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                        #56
                        There goes daughter #2's 529. She's enters college this fall and it was doing soooo well.
                        Carter Hargrave's Jeet Can't Do

                        http://www.bullshido.net/forums/showthread.php?t=31636

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                          #57
                          Originally posted by hungryjoe View Post
                          There goes daughter #2's 529. She's enters college this fall and it was doing soooo well.
                          I don't know what the rules are on a 529. Big moves down are often followed by rapid moves up when conditions improve. If she doesn't need to cash out then maybe it wouldn't be a bad idea for her to hold onto it and use slower moving college loan debt to finance tuition instead.

                          Then she could pay everything off all at once. I don't see lower than 5% growth in the market after we get over this plague.
                          "Pave the way for the little guy, Caligula!" Harry Solomon, September 28, 1999

                          Comment


                            #58
                            Originally posted by Dung Beatles View Post

                            I don't know what the rules are on a 529. Big moves down are often followed by rapid moves up when conditions improve. If she doesn't need to cash out then maybe it wouldn't be a bad idea for her to hold onto it and use slower moving college loan debt to finance tuition instead.

                            Then she could pay everything off all at once. I don't see lower than 5% growth in the market after we get over this plague.
                            I'll need to check the FAFSA requirements but your advice is solid.
                            Carter Hargrave's Jeet Can't Do

                            http://www.bullshido.net/forums/showthread.php?t=31636

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                              #59
                              Originally posted by Dung Beatles View Post

                              I don't know what the rules are on a 529. Big moves down are often followed by rapid moves up when conditions improve. If she doesn't need to cash out then maybe it wouldn't be a bad idea for her to hold onto it and use slower moving college loan debt to finance tuition instead.

                              Then she could pay everything off all at once. I don't see lower than 5% growth in the market after we get over this plague.
                              I was gonna say, it's never been a better time to take a loan out for school, especially with the interest freeze. Best case, some day in the future your debt gets cancelled/forgiven or you just pay it off as you can, worst case, you're paying historically low interest rates (if any, as of right now).

                              Don't spend your hard earned cash or investments on college tuition unless you have to, as in the Bursar is threatening to expel your kid, have to.

                              Financial aid alone put me through 10+ years of post secondary education, and I paid WAY more interest back then than I would today.

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                                #60
                                Boeing is down 17% on the day so far. How deep does the rabbit hole go....that's 60% in a month.
                                Last edited by W. Rabbit; 3/16/2020 9:12am, .

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