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    #31
    Originally posted by W. Rabbit View Post

    Good post, but it spawned a follow-up.

    If there have only been two depressions, and they are defined as you said, why so dubious?
    Because there is is much more relative wealth in circulation than there ever has been in the history of the world. There are faster moving and more reactive central banks. There is better infrastructure in place to speed recovery. This certainly could turn into a depression but that much wealth provides an awful lot of elasticity.


    Originally posted by W. Rabbit View Post
    Black Tuesday indicated the start of the Great Depression, followed by massive unemployment. So what's to say these massive, unprecedented slides couldn't signal something bad long term?
    They are loud warning sirens that people in the federal banks of every nation on earth need to be paying close attention to. If, for any reason, the mass casualties seen in Milan and Iran and Wuhan never materialize then, this could turn around quickly after a month or so of volatility.

    However, that's not what disease experts are saying, so it's a good idea to prepare for the worst. The talking heads on TV can't be trusted. They were blindsided in 2008, or at least acted the part, because they tried to prevent a panic sell off. They make their money based on market confidence and clearly can't be trusted. The fundamentals are what are important.

    Originally posted by W. Rabbit View Post
    Now in 2020, a lot of people now have the option to WFH. Google just forced their entire US workforce to go remote.

    But what happens when brick and mortar employees start losing jobs because people stay at home, shop on Amazon, etc?
    Businesses will start to fail. It will be begin with temporary lay offs and continue into bankruptcies unless they resume business operations.

    Originally posted by W. Rabbit View Post
    I guess what I'm asking, what are the positive signs that I as an investor would be encouraged by. Right now we are barely getting started with global infection rates.
    A stable bond market. Businesses staying open. Continued ability to pay your mortgage. Monetary stimulus policy. Plenty of food staples on the shelves at the grocery store. I just filled up my pantry with dry goods. Real estate prices staying high is a pretty good one. If real estate starts crashing because people can't pay their notes then we're in recession territory big time. If packs of homeless formerly middle class people start an armed revolt, then we're in depression territory.
    "Pave the way for the little guy, Caligula!" Harry Solomon, September 28, 1999

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      #32
      Hey Dung.

      What does it mean when they say "US stock futures fall more than 1,000 points".

      Comment


        #33
        It means that there's not much confidence in the stock market and they don't think it's going to get corrected soon. It's a big drop but that's just expectation. It's an educated guess. They could be wrong and the market could turn around. They could be right too. I don't like futures, personally. It's too much like gambling.

        Edit: Probably also has to do with the gaffe he made about not allowing cargo in the country either. Not true, but I'd get out if I thought it was true.
        Last edited by Dung Beatles; 3/12/2020 6:33am, .
        "Pave the way for the little guy, Caligula!" Harry Solomon, September 28, 1999

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          #34
          So, the DJIA fell almost 9% instantly at open and was stopped by the breaker. I haven't seen it drop that badly since 08.

          This is a now a panic. That is a tremendous hit in the opening seconds.

          The S&P also hit it's 15-minute break mark by falling 7% at opening.

          This is getting worrisome because at a certain point you expect the needle to stabilize. Clearly the investors don't think this is stabilization time.
          "Pave the way for the little guy, Caligula!" Harry Solomon, September 28, 1999

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            #35
            Originally posted by Dung Beatles View Post
            So, the DJIA fell almost 9% instantly at open and was stopped by the breaker. I haven't seen it drop that badly since 08.

            This is a now a panic. That is a tremendous hit in the opening seconds.

            The S&P also hit it's 15-minute break mark by falling 7% at opening.

            This is getting worrisome because at a certain point you expect the needle to stabilize. Clearly the investors don't think this is stabilization time.
            It was at this moment that every person who collects firearms thought quietly to themselves,

            "I told the wife the firearm collection was an asset category resistant to depreciation and prone to appreciation with minimal correlation to public money market swings..."

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              #36
              Originally posted by Dung Beatles View Post
              It means that there's not much confidence in the stock market and they don't think it's going to get corrected soon. It's a big drop but that's just expectation. It's an educated guess. They could be wrong and the market could turn around. They could be right too. I don't like futures, personally. It's too much like gambling.
              Yes, and I feel like I bet my future on black and hit 00 on the wheel.

              Make it stop.

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                #37
                Originally posted by W. Rabbit View Post

                Yes, and I feel like I bet my future on black and hit 00 on the wheel.

                Make it stop.
                Your future is fine. Beyond the collapse of civilization, your portfolio is going to recoup very soon. This is nasty bug, not the black death. The market will correct again and return to it's previous highs within a few years, if not a matter of months or weeks.
                "Pave the way for the little guy, Caligula!" Harry Solomon, September 28, 1999

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                  #38
                  Originally posted by Dung Beatles View Post

                  Your future is fine. Beyond the collapse of civilization, your portfolio is going to recoup very soon. This is nasty bug, not the black death. The market will correct again and return to it's previous highs within a few years, if not a matter of months or weeks.
                  I admire your positivity.

                  Somebody told me to buy Boeing.

                  Ya think?????

                  Comment


                    #39
                    Did trading just get curbed for the second time in a single day?

                    Or did they just close the whole trading floor.
                    Last edited by W. Rabbit; 3/12/2020 1:25pm, .

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                      #40
                      There it goes again.

                      Welp, here comes another record and a 10% drop

                      It's teasing us...

                      21,200.62 −2,352.60 (9.99%)
                      Last edited by W. Rabbit; 3/12/2020 2:17pm, .

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                        #41
                        Is this the part of the movie where people start jumping out of windows? Or are we not there yet?
                        Combatives training log.

                        Gezere: paraphrase from Bas Rutten, Never escalate the level of violence in fight you are losing. :D

                        Drum thread

                        Pavel Tsatsouline: kettlebell workouts give you “cardio without the dishonour of aerobics”.

                        "Disliking someone is not evidence of wrongdoing or malfeasance or even bias." --Dung Beatles

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                          #42
                          Originally posted by Diesel_tke View Post
                          Is this the part of the movie where people start jumping out of windows? Or are we not there yet?
                          Not yet. This is the part where I wait for Dung to yell "BUY BUY BUY" and I start trying to capitalize (with what little capital I have) on Boeing's misfortune.

                          I haven't traded in about 20 years, ever since I sunk my first paychecks into Sun Microsystems and lost them to the Void (not my fault, man. Who knew?).

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                            #43
                            Originally posted by Diesel_tke View Post
                            Is this the part of the movie where people start jumping out of windows? Or are we not there yet?
                            i tried it but i live on the first floor

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                              #44
                              Originally posted by W. Rabbit View Post

                              I admire your positivity.

                              Somebody told me to buy Boeing.

                              Ya think?????

                              To be fair, Boeing has problems which extend beyond global SHTF zombie movies. MAX is still not flying, which means they have only an aging fleet to maintain, and an albatross in the hangar.
                              Consider for a moment that there is no meme about brown-haired, brown-eyed step children.

                              Comment


                                #45
                                Originally posted by submessenger View Post

                                To be fair, Boeing has problems which extend beyond global SHTF zombie movies. MAX is still not flying, which means they have only an aging fleet to maintain, and an albatross in the hangar.
                                They call these "Black swan events", after Natalie Portman, obviously.

                                ​​​​

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