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Great Recession part deuce?

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    Great Recession part deuce?

    Stock markets are falling across Europe and Asia. This is not a drill, nor it is it paranoia on my part.

    The problem isn't so much the people who have sickened, it's that businesses aren't operating and people aren't buying the normal stuff they were. Shortages in basic living commodities plus dried up revenue streams are going to hit the economy hard and cause major bottlenecks. Goods aren't crossing borders and factories aren't filling orders.

    That can cause a pretty nasty monetary chain reaction.

    I'm not really here to talk politics, and don't particularly care about laying fault, but if this kind of wrench stays in the works of the machine then it could easily trigger a long term global recession.
    "Pave the way for the little guy, Caligula!" Harry Solomon, September 28, 1999

    #2
    Where is the downvote button?
    "I'm reluctant to sound like a total fa66ot as well, but my background in sculpture gave me an edge in understanding how we're expected to move thru space." - The Other Other Serge

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      #3
      Originally posted by Lily View Post
      Where is the downvote button?
      Et tu, Lily? Et tu?
      "Pave the way for the little guy, Caligula!" Harry Solomon, September 28, 1999

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        #4
        Originally posted by Dung Beatles View Post

        The problem isn't so much the people who have sickened,
        Before people climb up on their high horse...

        It would be more accurate to say that "...the cause of the economic woe isn't that people who have sickened..." Of course, it is a tragedy on an immense scale but that's not the point of this discussion. That's a different thread.
        "Pave the way for the little guy, Caligula!" Harry Solomon, September 28, 1999

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          #5
          Dow jones −1,884.88 (7.29%) and it's only just opened. Let's see how this goes.
          "Pave the way for the little guy, Caligula!" Harry Solomon, September 28, 1999

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            #6
            I was talking to a Mechanic friend the other day and he said that they are having back ups on ordering some parts for the vehicles they fix because some plant shut down in China and they haven't been able to source the parts from anywhere else in the volume they need. I thought that was pretty interesting because we rely on China for a lot of things, whether we like to admit it or not. Them shutting down plants for legit reasons is going to start to show the potential of what would happen if they shut down plants for other than legit reasons.
            Combatives training log.

            Gezere: paraphrase from Bas Rutten, Never escalate the level of violence in fight you are losing. :D

            Drum thread

            Pavel Tsatsouline: kettlebell workouts give you “cardio without the dishonour of aerobics”.

            "Disliking someone is not evidence of wrongdoing or malfeasance or even bias." --Dung Beatles

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              #7
              The first steps of the FED BAILOUT to head this off are well under way. Not only has the FED reduced interest rates by half a point but...

              The New York Fed Monday said it will step up its cash injections into the financial system to prevent the kind of cash shortages that pushed up the central bank’s key short-term interest rate above its target range last fall. Over the next few days, the Fed will increase one kind of loan from $100 billion to $150 billion and another from $20 billion to at least $45 billion.
              I marked bailout in red because some people have a hard time understanding what bailouts and stimulus packages actually are.

              It doesn't matter what someone calls it, and fuck political spin, we are already in bailout territory. The rule that even allowed this type of loan was set to expire in Spring. These loans IIRC are to keep banks and financial biz afloat if the bond market takes a big enough hit to bankrupt big entites like in 2008.

              Edit; The effective interest rate is in negative number territory. People buying government bonds are practically paying the government for the privilege of loaning them money. We're at 1% government bonds and USD inflation rate is about 2.3% to 2.5%. There is basically no incentive to save money right now at all. Find something to invest in.
              Last edited by Dung Beatles; 3/09/2020 8:47am, .
              "Pave the way for the little guy, Caligula!" Harry Solomon, September 28, 1999

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                #8
                Originally posted by Lily View Post
                Where is the downvote button?
                In my belly.

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                  #9
                  Originally posted by Dung Beatles View Post
                  Dow jones −1,884.88 (7.29%) and it's only just opened. Let's see how this goes.
                  Poorly.

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                    #10
                    Originally posted by W. Rabbit View Post

                    Poorly.
                    I'm thinking about shorting an index fund with a thousand bucks just to see what happens. Maybe hit up a multiplier and get crazy.
                    "Pave the way for the little guy, Caligula!" Harry Solomon, September 28, 1999

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                      #11
                      Hard to swallow the biggest one day drop ever was last week, and that record could be doubled today.

                      Say it with me: I picked a hell of a week to quit _______.
                      Last edited by W. Rabbit; 3/09/2020 9:20am, .

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                        #12
                        Bank of America Corp has fallen almost 13% today. Price down from $30 last week to $22 something now.

                        I'm glad I didn't short the market though just now. The Dow bumped a point.
                        "Pave the way for the little guy, Caligula!" Harry Solomon, September 28, 1999

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                          #13
                          I'm no economist but it's starting to look more and more like the bull market ended in 2018, and we're now witnessing a Mega Dead Cat Bounce with two major events the first being Dec 21 2018 (trade war begins) and now coronavirus.

                          As much as I hate to say it...buy gold. It hit a 7 year high today and is poised to go even higher.

                          https://markets.businessinsider.com/...0-3-1028976822

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                            #14
                            It's oil plus coronavirus plus overleveraged from the '17 stimulus package giving the markets not enough elasticity.

                            We don't officially enter bear territory until the market is down 20% from this year's high IIRC.
                            "Pave the way for the little guy, Caligula!" Harry Solomon, September 28, 1999

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                              #15
                              Originally posted by Dung Beatles View Post
                              It's oil plus coronavirus plus overleveraged from the '17 stimulus package giving the markets not enough elasticity.

                              We don't officially enter bear territory until the market is down 20% from this year's high IIRC.
                              I just read somewhere last week ended 12% down for the year. Almost back to 2017 levels.

                              Make it stop.

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