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  • BKR
    replied
    Originally posted by W. Rabbit View Post

    Xi Jinping is 66, putting his mortality rate at around 36 times that of influenza.

    You'd have to be in the Gen X or younger crowd to start nearing flu's mortality rate, but COVID-19 would still be 4 times more deadly to the average 40-something than flu.

    There's been a noticeable increase in the infection #'s and deaths reported since the weekend, even though China's rates are stabilized. And as we've previously discussed, you can't enforce the kind of quarantines in most democratic nations the way the Chinese can. So it's entirely possible their # of infections represents the best case scenario. Western cities might not be so lucky as Wuhan. We could never lock down a major US city like that. We'll have to wait and see, and hope for a vaccine.

    I always like how we cured limp penis years ago, but still have so much trouble with microscopic bugs.
    Limp penis doesn't mutate like the bugs...

    Leave a comment:


  • Lily
    replied
    Not just theirs...

    Leave a comment:


  • W. Rabbit
    replied
    Originally posted by Diesel_tke View Post

    So what you are saying is that the Chinese figured out a way to kill off all their elderly, less productive members of society, while preserving the young ones that will be needed to work? Pretty slick.
    Xi Jinping is 66, putting his mortality rate at around 36 times that of influenza.

    You'd have to be in the Gen X or younger crowd to start nearing flu's mortality rate, but COVID-19 would still be 4 times more deadly to the average 40-something than flu.

    There's been a noticeable increase in the infection #'s and deaths reported since the weekend, even though China's rates are stabilized. And as we've previously discussed, you can't enforce the kind of quarantines in most democratic nations the way the Chinese can. So it's entirely possible their # of infections represents the best case scenario. Western cities might not be so lucky as Wuhan. We could never lock down a major US city like that. We'll have to wait and see, and hope for a vaccine.

    I always like how we cured limp penis years ago, but still have so much trouble with microscopic bugs.

    Leave a comment:


  • Diesel_tke
    replied
    Originally posted by W. Rabbit View Post

    The age demographics are starting to show that older people are getting hammered and may have a mortality rate as high as 14%, which would explain the cluster of deaths in the Seattle facility.

    On the other end, young healthy children seem almost immune to it, the infection count and death rate are really low.

    In the middle it seems 30+ is the age when it really starts to have an impact on otherwise healthy adults.

    Also new today, the virus appears to have mutated to at least two strains, with the worse being the original out of Wuhan.

    Apparently the movie Contagion is trending. It's a great movie and uncannily similar to how COVID19 is playing out (short of the death toll). Even has bats being the primary source of infection, then pigs, then humans.
    So what you are saying is that the Chinese figured out a way to kill off all their elderly, less productive members of society, while preserving the young ones that will be needed to work? Pretty slick.

    Leave a comment:


  • W. Rabbit
    replied
    Originally posted by BKR View Post

    It kills mainly old and otherwise immune-compromised people...

    A breakdown of deaths by age would be interesting, as well as immune system status.
    The age demographics are starting to show that older people are getting hammered and may have a mortality rate as high as 14%, which would explain the cluster of deaths in the Seattle facility.

    On the other end, young healthy children seem almost immune to it, the infection count and death rate are really low.

    In the middle it seems 30+ is the age when it really starts to have an impact on otherwise healthy adults.

    Also new today, the virus appears to have mutated to at least two strains, with the worse being the original out of Wuhan.

    Apparently the movie Contagion is trending. It's a great movie and uncannily similar to how COVID19 is playing out (short of the death toll). Even has bats being the primary source of infection, then pigs, then humans.

    Leave a comment:


  • goodlun
    replied
    Originally posted by BKR View Post

    It kills mainly old and otherwise immune-compromised people...

    A breakdown of deaths by age would be interesting, as well as immune system status.
    This will get you some of the information you are after:
    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032

    Leave a comment:


  • BKR
    replied
    Originally posted by Dung Beatles View Post
    New WHO mortality rate estimate is 3.4%.

    That looks pretty high given how contagious it's supposed to be. I'm curious how they achieved that number.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-...y-thought.html
    It kills mainly old and otherwise immune-compromised people...

    A breakdown of deaths by age would be interesting, as well as immune system status.

    Leave a comment:


  • Dung Beatles
    replied
    New WHO mortality rate estimate is 3.4%.

    That looks pretty high given how contagious it's supposed to be. I'm curious how they achieved that number.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-...y-thought.html

    Leave a comment:


  • Dung Beatles
    replied
    Originally posted by BKR View Post

    It's fatal to immunosuppressed and elderly people. The deaths in Seattle were all over 70 and in managed care facilities.
    Right, otherwise you get standard pneumonia symptoms that you can treat with an inhaler, OTC meds, bed rest and fluids.

    Leave a comment:


  • BKR
    replied
    Originally posted by Dung Beatles View Post
    So just had a fulfilling Q&A about coronavirus with a doctor.

    1. You can't elect to get tested unless you've traveled to a hotspot in the last 14 days.
    2. You can't get tested by procedure unless you have pneumonia bad enough to warrant hospitalization or lived with someone who tested positive. Working with them does not necessarily count.
    3. Most clinics, urgent care and hospitals do not have testing kits and must order them. No one currently knows if the kits will ever actually be made widely available or how much they will really cost when you are billed.
    4. Presenting with a fever and obvious pneumonia is not enough to get tested unless either 1 or 2 and they'll have to send off to the CDC for the kits while you wait for at least 5 days anyway.

    The reason why I'm bringing all of this up is that the numbers of confirmed infected are low and the fatalities are high because they're really only testing people who are extremely ill and the majority of cases will not be counted.

    This could result in two false narratives:
    1. The illness may look more fatal than it factually is.
    2. Many more people will get it than the CDC will factually confirm.

    Edit: one of the reasons why the kits may never materialize in mass production is simply that so many people will have it that keeping track of if it is or isn't Coronavirus will be completely immaterial unless its a case of life or death.
    It's fatal to immunosuppressed and elderly people. The deaths in Seattle were all over 70 and in managed care facilities.

    Leave a comment:


  • BKR
    replied
    Originally posted by Dung Beatles View Post

    I'm not sure, honestly.
    Yeah, chemo is the shitz. My wife seems to be doing well. Did not get sick when I had two sick teens in the house. Her WBC was low, but not dangerously so after they cut her back 20% on the chemo.

    She won't be going to work for at least another month, so should stay clear of most diseases.

    Leave a comment:


  • Dung Beatles
    replied
    So just had a fulfilling Q&A about coronavirus with a doctor.

    1. You can't elect to get tested unless you've traveled to a hotspot in the last 14 days.
    2. You can't get tested by procedure unless you have pneumonia bad enough to warrant hospitalization or lived with someone who tested positive. Working with them does not necessarily count.
    3. Most clinics, urgent care and hospitals do not have testing kits and must order them. No one currently knows if the kits will ever actually be made widely available or how much they will really cost when you are billed.
    4. Presenting with a fever and obvious pneumonia is not enough to get tested unless either 1 or 2 and they'll have to send off to the CDC for the kits while you wait for at least 5 days anyway.

    The reason why I'm bringing all of this up is that the numbers of confirmed infected are low and the fatalities are high because they're really only testing people who are extremely ill and the majority of cases will not be counted.

    This could result in two false narratives:
    1. The illness may look more fatal than it factually is.
    2. Many more people will get it than the CDC will factually confirm.

    Edit: one of the reasons why the kits may never materialize in mass production is simply that so many people will have it that keeping track of if it is or isn't Coronavirus will be completely immaterial unless its a case of life or death.
    Last edited by Dung Beatles; 3/03/2020 2:29am, .

    Leave a comment:


  • W. Rabbit
    replied
    Mrs. Rabbit, my own personal doomsday prep personal assistant (seriously, she keeps The SAS Survival Manual on her beside table), was at Costco tonight. She said it was surreal.

    Zero toilet paper.

    Zero paper towels.

    She bought 70 bottles of Gatorade though. Such a clever girl. She's watching the dumbest show she can find on Netflix ("Blind Love: Season Finale) just to cope with the unsettling nature of there being no paper products at Costco because of novel coronavirus. I think she's worried about me and my oldest (the immunosuppressed), but I'm doing my best to keep things grounded with facts. I don't have the heart to go into the math with her, because it's sad.

    Anyway, a great day for the stock market, huh. DB was right, if you didn't place bets this morning you missed the moon shot.

    Leave a comment:


  • Dung Beatles
    replied
    Originally posted by BKR View Post

    Your immune system back up to snuff?
    I'm not sure, honestly.

    Leave a comment:


  • AprilRains
    replied
    I'm just locking myself up in my house with a rifle until the whole thing blows over.

    Leave a comment:

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