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    Originally posted by battlefields View Post
    So I'm going to throw in that San Francisco just declared a "state of emergency"

    There are still zero confirmed cases in San Francisco residents

    Also
    Santa Clara and San Diego counties have issued similar declarations to bolster their preparedness
    Of the single rapier fight between valiant men, having both skill, he that is the best wrestler, or if neither of them can wrestle, the strongest man most commonly kills the other, or leaves him at his mercy.
    –George Silver, Paradoxes of Defence

    Comment


      Originally posted by goodlun View Post


      There are still zero confirmed cases in San Francisco residents

      Also
      Santa Clara and San Diego counties have issued similar declarations to bolster their preparedness
      They're cancelling international conferences left and right. RSA is going on right now in fact...some big names dropped out.

      It's smart to declare an emergency ahead of time, so resources are in place to detect, quarantine, and treat early. We declare states of emergency for snow for the same reason.

      Thankfully the infection rate has gone from a geometric to approaching a limit, unfortunately that can change again with these spikes like in Iran and Korea. It'll be interesting/horrifying to see what happens in the DPRK if this gets loose there...it's spreading pretty fast in Iran, which at least we can see reporting out of. Their health minister just caught it.

      Comment


        Originally posted by W. Rabbit View Post
        it's spreading pretty fast in Iran, which at least we can see reporting out of. Their health minister just caught it.
        https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...rsn=6126c0a4_2

        95, there are 95 cases, with 28 of those being in country person to person transmission.
        Of the single rapier fight between valiant men, having both skill, he that is the best wrestler, or if neither of them can wrestle, the strongest man most commonly kills the other, or leaves him at his mercy.
        –George Silver, Paradoxes of Defence

        Comment


          Originally posted by goodlun View Post

          https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...rsn=6126c0a4_2

          95, there are 95 cases, with 28 of those being in country person to person transmission.
          So if there are 95 confirmed cases, meaning about 240 is the upper bound of the # of people who will be infected from that initial 95, given the common geometric ratio of 2.5 that's been given so far by authorities, assuming they weren't quarantined or stay at home while infected (in bed, etc). They are still turning cruise ships away at major ports.

          Those 240 will infect 600, and so on. 1500, 3750...but the problem with these numbers are not an upper bound at all, but a lower bound, because the vast majority of infected will only suffer mild flu-like symptoms. So they might not even go to the doctor. About 2% of these people will die, which isn't a lot right now, but it'll add up over time, especially in poor places.

          Africa has it. Africa has a lot of bats, too.

          Comment


            Originally posted by W. Rabbit View Post

            So if there are 95 confirmed cases, meaning about 240 is the upper bound of the # of people who will be infected from that initial 95, given the common geometric ratio of 2.5 that's been given so far by authorities, assuming they weren't quarantined or stay at home while infected (in bed, etc). They are still turning cruise ships away at major ports.

            Those 240 will infect 600, and so on. 1500, 3750...but the problem with these numbers are not an upper bound at all, but a lower bound, because the vast majority of infected will only suffer mild flu-like symptoms. So they might not even go to the doctor. About 2% of these people will die, which isn't a lot right now, but it'll add up over time, especially in poor places.

            Africa has it. Africa has a lot of bats, too.
            Except the RE has been no where near 2.5 even in China.
            Let alone anywhere else.
            The US has a RE < 1
            ​​​​​​
            Of the single rapier fight between valiant men, having both skill, he that is the best wrestler, or if neither of them can wrestle, the strongest man most commonly kills the other, or leaves him at his mercy.
            –George Silver, Paradoxes of Defence

            Comment


              Originally posted by goodlun View Post

              Except the RE has been no where near 2.5 even in China.
              Let alone anywhere else.
              The US has a RE < 1
              ​​​​​​
              https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKBN1ZO0QW

              A second study by researchers at Britain’s Lancaster University also calculated the contagion rate at 2.5 new people on average being infected by each person already infected.

              “Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan, we predict (it) will be substantially larger by Feb. 4,” the scientists wrote.
              It's February 27th. They were right.

              Consider the following two graphs. The first isn't going to seem that bad to most viewers. The second scares me, and I don't scare easily.

              30 days.

              Last edited by W. Rabbit; 2/26/2020 11:26pm, .

              Comment


                Originally posted by W. Rabbit View Post
                The second scares me, and I don't scare easily.
                C'mon.
                You love panics and panic mongering.
                "It will be a doom, I tell you..."

                Comment


                  I love how you cited an article that said quote

                  They estimated that the central Chinese city of Wuhan where the outbreak began in December will alone have around 190,000 cases of infection by Feb. 4
                  Its Feb 27th and we still don't have 100,000 cases.

                  Kind of shows that growth rate isn't that aggressive.
                  Of the single rapier fight between valiant men, having both skill, he that is the best wrestler, or if neither of them can wrestle, the strongest man most commonly kills the other, or leaves him at his mercy.
                  –George Silver, Paradoxes of Defence

                  Comment


                    Look, this is all great and everything, but will someone tell me when the zombie apocalypse is going to start already cause I'm getting bored waiting.

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by goodlun View Post
                      I love how you cited an article that said quote

                      Its Feb 27th and we still don't have 100,000 cases.

                      Kind of shows that growth rate isn't that aggressive.
                      The CDC reported this today, so we're possibly already at community virus: https://us.cnn.com/2020/02/26/health...nts/index.html

                      The reason the logarithmic graph is scary is because of this. It's not that the growth rate is "aggressive", it's that it's steady. This presumes no big spikes in the rate, too, which is exactly what happens once the virus hits an urban center.

                      Laugh all you want, the experts are pretty concerned, and you should all be preparing for this. Hand sanitizer and frequent hand washes at least.


                      Last edited by W. Rabbit; 2/27/2020 12:52pm, .

                      Comment


                        I mean we are on neither the lig or lin graphs, dates matter, when off by median infection time it means that the R value of the model is off.
                        Of the single rapier fight between valiant men, having both skill, he that is the best wrestler, or if neither of them can wrestle, the strongest man most commonly kills the other, or leaves him at his mercy.
                        –George Silver, Paradoxes of Defence

                        Comment


                          Skipping over the arguments about R, R0 and RE and modeling and all of that for now:
                          This article is pretty interesting:
                          http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-persp...fection-routes

                          On the first day of illness, 80% of oral swabs were positive in a small group of patients, but by day 5, 75% of anal swabs were positive for COVID-19 virual RNA, and only 50% of oral swabs were still positive in the same patients with lab-confirmed COVID-19.

                          "These data suggested a shift from more oral positive during early period (as indicated by antibody titres) to more anal positive during later period might happen,"
                          Of the single rapier fight between valiant men, having both skill, he that is the best wrestler, or if neither of them can wrestle, the strongest man most commonly kills the other, or leaves him at his mercy.
                          –George Silver, Paradoxes of Defence

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by goodlun View Post
                            I mean we are on neither the lig or lin graphs, dates matter, when off by median infection time it means that the R value of the model is off.
                            Right, it'll change over time, but in both directions. Individual country's rates will depend on the healthcare system's ability to document positive cases.

                            For instance, since that WHO sitrep you reported with 95 Iran cases, they've almost tripled in little over 48 hours.

                            Feb 25 - 95
                            Feb 26 - 139 (1.4)
                            Feb 27 - 245 (1.8)

                            So notice, the rate is increasing in Iran. 2.5 was the initial average common ratio reported. In a big city, it could end up way higher.

                            https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/w...#link-489e2c14

                            Comment


                              The US stock market just had its worst week since 2008.

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by W. Rabbit View Post
                                The US stock market just had its worst week since 2008.
                                In part due to the fear mongering, also in part to supply chain issues in China, fuck I have some antennas get hung up in a Chinese port even though they where made in S. Korea.
                                Of the single rapier fight between valiant men, having both skill, he that is the best wrestler, or if neither of them can wrestle, the strongest man most commonly kills the other, or leaves him at his mercy.
                                –George Silver, Paradoxes of Defence

                                Comment

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