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    Originally posted by goodlun View Post
    So your source isn't the CDC and has nothing to do with infection rates in North America.
    My source was Dr. It's Longini, an American WHO/CDC researcher who is considered by many to be "the One".

    Originally posted by goodlun View Post
    Love the fact you reach for sensational news and try and call it science.
    Come back when you have something better than a bloomberg article.
    I already do, I have the position of one of the most respected biostatisticians / infectious disease epidemiologists in the world.

    Bloomberg.com and Bullshido.net have around the same Media Bias/ Fact Check score. So not sure what you're on about "sources".

    The CDC has out out their own projections and they are wholly in line with Dr. Longini, too.

    If your position is Longini is a "sensationalist", your argument just became boneless and limp.
    ​​​​

    Comment


      Originally posted by W. Rabbit View Post
      The CDC has out out their own projections
      Don't be lazy link to CDC projections from the CDC site.
      Of the single rapier fight between valiant men, having both skill, he that is the best wrestler, or if neither of them can wrestle, the strongest man most commonly kills the other, or leaves him at his mercy.
      George Silver, Paradoxes of Defence

      Comment


        Lets go look for some 1st hand reports from Dr. Longini or any insitute he works for:
        http://biostat.ufl.edu/about/people/...y/longini-ira/
        webstite:
        http://www.cidid.org/

        http://www.cidid.org/news/2020/2/3/mobs-lab-creates-new-website-for-2019-ncov-analysis

        leads to this:
        https://www.mobs-lab.org/2019ncov.html
        that leads to this:
        http://epirisk.net/#eyJxdWVyeSI6eyJ0...JpbmciOjB9fQ==

        The key thing to look at the interactive map is the relative risk tab:
        You will see that the relative risk is fucking low everywhere outside of China.

        BTW no where on any of these sites does it suggest that the world is at risk of having a 65% infection rate.



        Of the single rapier fight between valiant men, having both skill, he that is the best wrestler, or if neither of them can wrestle, the strongest man most commonly kills the other, or leaves him at his mercy.
        George Silver, Paradoxes of Defence

        Comment


          Originally posted by goodlun View Post
          So your source isn't the CDC
          My source was better. He's informing both the CDC and the WHO.

          Did you just copy and paste your last post? Yes, you did.

          Comment


            Originally posted by goodlun View Post
            BTW no where on any of these sites does it suggest that the world is at risk of having a 65% infection rate.
            The world is probably at risk of 100% over time. Do you know what t is with respect to the novel coronavirus??

            Listen, rage against the epidemiologists and biostatisticians all you want. It's your dime.

            Comment


              Originally posted by W. Rabbit View Post

              My source was better. He's informing both the CDC and the WHO.

              Did you just copy and paste your last post? Yes, you did.
              No your source was a science writer at Bloomberg.
              You are free to email the Dr and reproduce said email here, his email is in one of the links I shared.
              Of the single rapier fight between valiant men, having both skill, he that is the best wrestler, or if neither of them can wrestle, the strongest man most commonly kills the other, or leaves him at his mercy.
              George Silver, Paradoxes of Defence

              Comment


                Originally posted by goodlun View Post
                No your source was a science writer at Bloomberg.
                You are free to email the Dr and reproduce said email here, his email is in one of the links I shared.
                "Science writer"?. Wow, you're so arrogant.

                No, u.

                http://biostat.ufl.edu/about/people/...y/longini-ira/
                http://www.epi.ufl.edu/people/facult...s/ira-longini/
                https://www.facebook.com/UFPHHP/phot..._fb_noscript=1
                https://www.wuft.org/news/2017/03/31...s-worst-enemy/
                https://www.aspph.org/florida-plays-...ebola-vaccine/

                Comment


                  That isn't your "source" you didn't go out and get the information from him. You as always are trying to transpose other peoples accomplishments to yourself.
                  A science writer talked to the Dr, not you.
                  You don't actually know what the Dr told the Science writer.
                  On top of that the Dr, hasn't published anything suggesting those sorts of numbers.

                  So you can stop calling him your source.
                  Of the single rapier fight between valiant men, having both skill, he that is the best wrestler, or if neither of them can wrestle, the strongest man most commonly kills the other, or leaves him at his mercy.
                  George Silver, Paradoxes of Defence

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by goodlun View Post
                    That isn't your "source" you didn't go out and get the information from him. You as always are trying to transpose other peoples accomplishments to yourself.
                    A science writer talked to the Dr, not you.
                    You don't actually know what the Dr told the Science writer.
                    On top of that the Dr, hasn't published anything suggesting those sorts of numbers.

                    So you can stop calling him your source.
                    Nope. He's still the CDC/WHO's source. Their his.

                    And I'm yours. In fact, I'm your best chance of survival, bar none.

                    How many times did you wash your hands today?? Be honest.

                    Comment


                      No it all.

                      You're going to die Wrabbit. The overwhelming odds are against you.

                      Carter Hargrave's Jeet Can't Do

                      http://www.bullshido.net/forums/showthread.php?t=31636

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by hungryjoe View Post
                        No it all.

                        You're going to die Wrabbit. The overwhelming odds are against you.
                        I don't believe in odds.

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by W. Rabbit View Post

                          The CDC is planning for a 67% infection rate across North America.

                          Do the math. 0.67 x 327,000,000 = ‭219,090,000‬.

                          It's close to 5.5M dead, at least. And that's just using my assumptions.
                          5.5 million dead? I’m going to remind you about this in 6 months.

                          Shut the hell up and train.

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by W. Rabbit View Post
                            Nope. He's still the CDC/WHO's source. Their his.
                            Cool so we are on the same page, that you should check the CDC and WHO for information and not Bloomberg.
                            Interesting no mention of 65% at the CDC or WHO.

                            Or

                            http://www.cidid.org/news/2020/2/3/m...-ncov-analysis

                            https://www.mobs-lab.org/2019ncov.html

                            or

                            Anything published by the Dr or any of his institutes about 65%

                            You deserve a FUD tag. You are all smoke and mirrors and no substance.

                            I want to point out yet again, your source is Bloomberg not the Dr. The fact you can't make that distinction is actually very troubling.
                            Of the single rapier fight between valiant men, having both skill, he that is the best wrestler, or if neither of them can wrestle, the strongest man most commonly kills the other, or leaves him at his mercy.
                            George Silver, Paradoxes of Defence

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by goodlun View Post

                              Cool so we are on the same page, that you should check the CDC and WHO for information and not Bloomberg.
                              Interesting no mention of 65% at the CDC or WHO.

                              Or

                              http://www.cidid.org/news/2020/2/3/m...-ncov-analysis

                              https://www.mobs-lab.org/2019ncov.html

                              or

                              Anything published by the Dr or any of his institutes about 65%

                              You deserve a FUD tag. You are all smoke and mirrors and no substance.

                              I want to point out yet again, your source is Bloomberg not the Dr. The fact you can't make that distinction is actually very troubling.
                              LOL, If I deserve any tag other than my favorite Pink Lotus, it would be "Theoretical Research Scientist", possibly the last to post on Bullshido since Dr. Thalken was still here.

                              You keep trying to argue about me, my motives, sources, and other fallacies. I'm posting the remarks CDC/WHO collaborative researchers who are all busy... collaborating with the CDC.

                              Since you don't seem to think the Bloomberg article quoting a global expert is accurate (because of your bias), how about The Hill? Also quoting same expert. I could grab as big a list as you like.

                              How about Harvard CCDD? 40-70%

                              ​​​​​​Hong Kong University? 60-80%

                              CDC? "More than 15", which is also factually accurate, because a billion is bigger than 15. Science!
                              ​​
                              Harvard professor says global coronavirus pandemic 'likely,' infecting 40-70% of world this year
                              https://thehill.com/changing-america...-preparing-for

                              Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch told The Wall Street Journal that "it's likely we'll see a global pandemic" of coronavirus, with 40 to 70 percent of the world's population likely to be infected this year.

                              "What proportion of those will be symptomatic, I can't give a good number," added Lipsitch, who is the Director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

                              Two other experts have recently given similar estimates.

                              Ira Longini, a biostatistician and adviser to the World Health Organization, has predicted that two-thirds of the global population may eventually contract COVID-19.

                              Prof Gabriel Leung, the chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, says if the transmission estimate of 2.5 additional people for each infected rate is accurate, that would result in an "attack rate" that would affect 60 to 80 percent of the world's population.

                              The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has already said that it is preparing for the coronavirus to have a greater impact in the U.S. than the 15 confirmed cases currently.

                              In an interview with CNN on Feb. 13, Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said, “Right now we're in an aggressive containment mode.” He added that “this virus is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year, and I think eventually the virus will find a foothold and we will get community-based transmission."

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by jnp View Post
                                5.5 million dead? I’m going to remind you about this in 6 months.
                                We should all pray it will be that small. "Community virus" means that number would be a miracle.

                                1918 Spanish flu, which spreads similarly, infected 500M, killed 50-100M. In just a little over 1,000 days.

                                Unfortunately, that was when the Earth only held 1.5B people.

                                I won't do the math using the Harvard or Hong Kong projections, (why bother if people don't take them seriously) but the CDC certainly has and it's going to be Bad unless they find a cure or vaccine. They are in a mad scramble.

                                But even then, many Americans no longer believe in vaccines, or the Bloomberg Financial Network, so it's not hyperbolic or fearmongering to say we are in deep shit already, especially the immunosuppressed.

                                I'd love to be wrong, but I didn't make up the numbers. See you in 6. Best of luck. Wash your hands religiously, and use ample amounts of hand sanitizer.


                                ​​​
                                Last edited by W. Rabbit; 2/17/2020 6:31pm, .

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