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    #16
    Just to be clear I'm aware we have very little room to talk given all the controversies with our immigration and detention policies. But this thread seemed more about cheap shots than real discussion, so I went for it.

    So when you guys detain these innocent refugees on Christmas Island, do you get them to make toys for your little ones? And do you have pols who take weird parking lot photos sort of near the detention center ferry parking lot so as to appear dramatic?
    "No. Listen to me because I know what I'm talking about here." -- Hannibal

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      #17
      Originally posted by Dr. Gonzo View Post
      Murders and assaults happen the world over, whether or not there are millions of guns present.
      Without a doubt. Both of our countries are pretty far down the list on intentional homicides too:

      89. United States: 5.30 / 100,000
      194. Australia : 0.80 / 100,000

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._homicide_rate

      Originally posted by Dr. Gonzo View Post
      And it is the problem that Sam Colt's gift solves.
      I matched the above dataset (complete) with the estimated number of civilian guns per capita to calculate the correlation of estimated private gun ownership per person to intentional homicide rate per 100,000 population (all homicides regardless of method).

      This yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.5 (which is moderately positively correlated for those non-numbers people reading this) across the 220 matchable countries.

      To be fair this is higher than I was expecting (I was expecting closer to a 0 correlation) and I can't vouch for the veracity of the base datasets, but is definitley not a negative correlation.

      Meaning that the higher number of firearms per person in a country is somewhat related to a higher intentional homicide rate, not the other way around.
      Last edited by cualltaigh; 1/15/2020 8:08pm, .
      2018 Male Purple Belt Adult No Gi
      #2 Ranked Competitor - QBJJC

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        #18
        Originally posted by Cassius View Post
        Just to be clear I'm aware we have very little room to talk given all the controversies with our immigration and detention policies. But this thread seemed more about cheap shots than real discussion, so I went for it.
        And just to be clear I'm not defending the policy, which I think is both abhorrent and a massive misuse of public funds.

        Originally posted by Cassius View Post
        So when you guys detain these innocent refugees on Christmas Island, do you get them to make toys for your little ones?
        How else does one acquire christmas gifts?
        Last edited by cualltaigh; 1/15/2020 8:05pm, .
        2018 Male Purple Belt Adult No Gi
        #2 Ranked Competitor - QBJJC

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          #19
          Originally posted by cualltaigh View Post
          Without a doubt. Both of our countries are pretty far down the list on intentional homicides too:

          89. United States: 5.30 / 100,000
          194. Australia : 0.80 / 100,000

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._homicide_rate



          I matched the above dataset (complete) with the estimated number of civilian guns per capita to calculate the correlation of estimated private gun ownership per person to intentional homicide rate per 100,000 population (all homicides regardless of method).

          This yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.5 (which is moderately positively correlated for those non-numbers people reading this) across the 220 matchable countries.

          To be fair this is higher than I was expecting (I was expecting closer to a 0 correlation) and I can't vouch for the veracity of the base datasets, but is definitley not a negative correlation.

          Meaning that the higher number of firearms per person in a country is somewhat related to a higher intentional homicide rate, not the other way around.
          One of the things one learns when reviewing Police science, is that national averages are not at all useful.

          Compare cities of similar population density and income / poverty levels.

          So for example take Sydney, and compare Sydney to a few US cities of similar population density and income / poverty levels, including disparity levels.

          And then look at the murder rates. Or violent crime rates, etc.

          As an example, in the US, over half the violent crimes and murders occur in just 2% of the municipalities.

          And ironically, those U.S. municipalities usually have the strictest gun laws, and are often in the States with the strictest gun laws.

          Violent crimes, outside of domestic violence, are often a function of population density, poverty, and also, in many cases increased temperatures.
          Last edited by Dr. Gonzo; 1/15/2020 9:36pm, .

          Comment


            #20
            Originally posted by Dr. Gonzo View Post
            One of the things one learns when reviewing Police science, is that national averages are not at all useful.

            Compare cities of similar population density and income / poverty levels.

            So for example take Sydney, and compare Sydney to a few US cities of similar population density and income / poverty levels, including disparity levels.

            And then look at the murder rates. Or violent crime rates, etc.

            As an example, in the US, over half the violent crimes and murders occur in just 2% of the municipalities.

            And ironically, those U.S. municipalities usually have the strictest gun laws, and are often in the States with the strictest gun laws.

            Violent crimes, outside of domestic violence, are often a function of population density, poverty, and also, in many cases increased temperatures.
            Oh I agree with all that. The hypothesis I was attempting to show was that there wasn't a strong correlation (either positive or negative) between homicide rates and gun ownership.

            Allowing for the error margin in the estimated numbers I still think the correlation co-efficient would be less than 0.5, but even 0.5 isn't a very strong number to be making a case on. I haven't the time nor the inclination to do as you suggested but I would expect that a more detailed analysis as you suiggest would show a lower correlation.
            2018 Male Purple Belt Adult No Gi
            #2 Ranked Competitor - QBJJC

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              #21
              Originally posted by cualltaigh View Post
              Oh I agree with all that. The hypothesis I was attempting to show was that there wasn't a strong correlation (either positive or negative) between homicide rates and gun ownership.

              Allowing for the error margin in the estimated numbers I still think the correlation co-efficient would be less than 0.5, but even 0.5 isn't a very strong number to be making a case on. I haven't the time nor the inclination to do as you suggested but I would expect that a more detailed analysis as you suiggest would show a lower correlation.
              Did you account for how many of those intentional homicides were committed by legal gun owners vs illegal gun owners?
              Combatives training log.

              Gezere: paraphrase from Bas Rutten, Never escalate the level of violence in fight you are losing. :D

              Drum thread

              Pavel Tsatsouline: kettlebell workouts give you “cardio without the dishonour of aerobics”.

              "Disliking someone is not evidence of wrongdoing or malfeasance or even bias." --Dung Beatles

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                #22
                Correlation does not equal causation, just sayin...
                Falling for Judo since 1980

                "You are wrong. Why? Because you move like a pregnant yak and talk like a spazzing 'I train UFC' noob." -DCS

                "The best part of getting you worked up is your backpack full of irony and lies." -It Is Fake

                "Banning BKR is like kicking a Quokka. It's foolishness of the first order." - Raycetpfl

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                  #23
                  Originally posted by Diesel_tke View Post
                  Did you account for how many of those intentional homicides were committed by legal gun owners vs illegal gun owners?
                  Suicides...
                  Falling for Judo since 1980

                  "You are wrong. Why? Because you move like a pregnant yak and talk like a spazzing 'I train UFC' noob." -DCS

                  "The best part of getting you worked up is your backpack full of irony and lies." -It Is Fake

                  "Banning BKR is like kicking a Quokka. It's foolishness of the first order." - Raycetpfl

                  Comment


                    #24
                    Originally posted by BKR View Post
                    Suicides...
                    I always think suicide is an interesting one. Since you have so many people trying to make doctor assisted suicide legal. But then on the other side are trying to keep people from killing themselves.

                    I think suicides should not be included in gun statistics.
                    Combatives training log.

                    Gezere: paraphrase from Bas Rutten, Never escalate the level of violence in fight you are losing. :D

                    Drum thread

                    Pavel Tsatsouline: kettlebell workouts give you “cardio without the dishonour of aerobics”.

                    "Disliking someone is not evidence of wrongdoing or malfeasance or even bias." --Dung Beatles

                    Comment


                      #25
                      Originally posted by Diesel_tke View Post
                      I always think suicide is an interesting one. Since you have so many people trying to make doctor assisted suicide legal. But then on the other side are trying to keep people from killing themselves.

                      I think suicides should not be included in gun statistics.
                      This should be obvious.

                      But, I agree that it was still worth posting, because this seemingly obvious point does not seem to be obvious to many people.

                      Comment


                        #26
                        Originally posted by Diesel_tke View Post
                        I always think suicide is an interesting one. Since you have so many people trying to make doctor assisted suicide legal. But then on the other side are trying to keep people from killing themselves.

                        I think suicides should not be included in gun statistics.
                        If they are murder/suicides I think they should be. But if they are just suicide, agree. But then you lose 2/3rds of your gun violence statistics.
                        "No. Listen to me because I know what I'm talking about here." -- Hannibal

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                          #27
                          Originally posted by Diesel_tke View Post
                          I always think suicide is an interesting one. Since you have so many people trying to make doctor assisted suicide legal. But then on the other side are trying to keep people from killing themselves.

                          I think suicides should not be included in gun statistics.

                          Comment


                            #28
                            I have no problem with tracking the number. It should be tracked. I just think using it as though it is equivalent to shooting another person is disingenuous because it skews results so heavily one way. Additionally, blaming someone's despair on guns is childish. It does nothing to solve underlying mental health problems.

                            On a philosophical note, I also don't believe that another person's cry for help/desire to die/whatever is a valid reason to restrict access to everyone's firearms. This is not basic training. Punishment in the United States should be for the individual, not the group.
                            "No. Listen to me because I know what I'm talking about here." -- Hannibal

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                              #29
                              Originally posted by BKR View Post
                              Correlation does not equal causation, just sayin...
                              Sure but it is hard to have causation without correlation, it makes data analysis in general troublesome, when we get into complex subjects where links between cause and effect can be complicated. Especially in the realm of maybe not a cause but a contributing factor.
                              Of the single rapier fight between valiant men, having both skill, he that is the best wrestler, or if neither of them can wrestle, the strongest man most commonly kills the other, or leaves him at his mercy.
                              George Silver, Paradoxes of Defence

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                                #30
                                Do firearms cause suicides, if course fucking not.
                                However the effectiveness of commiting suicide with a firearm is likely a contributing factor to the number of successful suicide attempts.
                                That being said still shouldn't be included in gun violence numbers in my opinion as it skews the argument trying to be made most of the time.
                                Of the single rapier fight between valiant men, having both skill, he that is the best wrestler, or if neither of them can wrestle, the strongest man most commonly kills the other, or leaves him at his mercy.
                                George Silver, Paradoxes of Defence

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