Iran War now? Yea or nay?

[Michael Tzadok]

Question is of course , was it unintentional?

Also do the western powers who lost lives just accept that it was an accident and let it go?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...nintentionally

I was watching an expert on these anti air defences on BBC earlier yesterday and he was basically saying that it was not possible to mistake a military plane for a passenger jet on one of those pieces of equipment .

But that they are stand alone units with a couple of dudes sitting in them.

It typically isnt possible in most Western countries where civilian transponder codes are fed into the network. An unfortunate incident in 1983 with a Korea Air flight caused that.

Is Iran that careful? I do not know. I honestly don't know enough about transponders to tell you. The Reuters article that BKR shared said it was possible. So expert vs expert....

Clearly Iran should have cleared civilian air traffic before trying to start a war.

IMO what will probably happen is that Iran will publish pictures of a couple of guys swinging by the neck from crane cables in the downtown square, probably in uniform with signs hanging from them.proclaiming them to be responsible, and call it a day. Whether or not they are the guys responsible, we will never know.

[Dung Beatles]

Guess they got their revenge.

For Salamiman and that airliner we shot down decades ago.

Now the crew of a missle battery gets to be martyrs.

Fucking brilliant. Really

I mean... it was 99% of their own people. Christ, toddlers, little kids, college students, whole Iranian families. I just can't see what possible profit motive they would have had.

[PDA]

Request to have the thread title changed to “That time Ghost was right “

[Cassius]

Request to have the thread title changed to “That time Ghost was right “

How about changing it to "white belt gets spanked by other white belts, manages to correctly point out flaw in their armbar technique as it is being applied to him."
In fact all the people here who have made statements implying or directly stating Trump is starting WWIII might want to look inward and watch themselves avoid cognitive dissonance by creating weird fantasies where Iranians were the reasonable ones, Trump's cabinet talked him down, etc etc etc. I know instead of that you'll all just wipe your brows and go back to assuming the worst about everything you don't like.

But as those prejudices settle in like a warm cozy blanket around your critical thinking centers, consider that the longest war of Trump's presidency in which he has been an original belligerent has been with Elizabeth Warren on twitter about her race. And that ended when she finally got trolled into taking a DNA test. Dude likes one liners, displays of machismo, and sanctions. Other than that most of his cabinet spends huge amounts of time continuously convincing him not to pull entirely out of Afghanistan and Iraq immediately.

Just saying. Don't pile on made up stuff when there is so much actual material to dislike.

ETA: lol @ Trump being responsible for that IRGC private using the Uncle Jimbo South Park defense on that commercial airliner.

[PDA]

How about changing it to "white belt gets spanked by other white belts, manages to correctly point out flaw in their armbar technique as it is being applied to him."
In fact all the people here who have made statements implying or directly stating Trump is starting WWIII might want to look inward and watch themselves avoid cognitive dissonance by creating weird fantasies where Iranians were the reasonable ones, Trump's cabinet talked him down, etc etc etc. I know instead of that you'll all just wipe your brows and go back to assuming the worst about everything you don't like.

But as those prejudices settle in like a warm cozy blanket around your critical thinking centers, consider that the longest war of Trump's presidency in which he has been an original belligerent has been with Elizabeth Warren on twitter about her race. And that ended when she finally got trolled into taking a DNA test. Dude likes one liners, displays of machismo, and sanctions. Other than that most of his cabinet spends huge amounts of time continuously convincing him not to pull entirely out of Afghanistan and Iraq immediately.

Just saying. Don't pile on made up stuff when there is so much actual material to dislike.

ETA: lol @ Trump being responsible for that IRGC private using the Uncle Jimbo South Park defense on that commercial airliner.

[It is Fake]

Bold of you to assume I'll live to be 45.

Bold was acting like your age was 55. Shhhhhhh....... I remember.........

[Dung Beatles]

It typically isnt possible in most Western countries where civilian transponder codes are fed into the network. An unfortunate incident in 1983 with a Korea Air flight caused that.

Iran is claiming that their triggerman thought it was a cruise missile and fired after failing to get confirmation.

If that's actually true then I have seriously scaled back my estimation of Iran's ability to fight a modern military. Can't tell a inbound cruise missile from an outbound 737?

I

[It is Fake]

[It is Fake]

Iran is claiming that their triggerman thought it was a cruise missile and fired after failing to get confirmation.

If that's actually true then I have seriously scaled back my estimation of Iran's ability to fight a modern military. Can't tell a inbound cruise missile from an outbound 737?

I

The irony is they did it to themselves this time and we did it to them back in the 80s IIRC.

Edit:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

Yes, this is why I wasn’t worried or numb to the “OMG the news has me freaked, when’s the Draft, WW3” people were spouting. I’ve heard the same shit for 30 years now.

[Michael Tzadok]

Iran is claiming that their triggerman thought it was a cruise missile and fired after failing to get confirmation.

If that's actually true then I have seriously scaled back my estimation of Iran's ability to fight a modern military. Can't tell a inbound cruise missile from an outbound 737?

I

I don't know enough about radar in general, and 80's era Soviet radar in specific to be able to accurately judge the veracity of claim. However, from the knowledge that I do have working around an advanced AA battery on the Northern Border, there are a couple of things that will play into that.

1)Quality of the gear. In this case we are talking cold war Soviet, so not great.
2)On site intel. Technically speaking the guys running those batteries should know civilian transponder codes and designated flight paths.
3)Level of Radar operator training. Even civilian models of radar from the 80s and 90s gave relative size of cross section and velocity, relative vector and size of cross section. To identify between a mortar, artillery shell, rocket, ballistic missile, cruise missile, military fighter, and commercial airline all takes training. When it comes to the real thing it all happens real fast. Remember a Soviet SU-15 pilot visually identified, fired warning shots and then downed KAL 007 fully believing to be a US military plane. Then remember that those are the guys that trained the Iranians.

So it is possible that it was a total accident. How that reflects on Iran's ability to fight a modern war... well the US and Israel both have a definite technological advantage. I wouldn't bet on the Saudis in a toe to toe with them though.

[BKR]

The irony is they did it to themselves this time and we did it to them back in the 80s IIRC.

Edit:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

It wasn't an accident that guided missile cruiser shot down that airliner, either. No way, no how. The captain of the ship told them to launch...

And I didn't even read the wiki article, lol. I remember that shit, armageddon was a comin, and I was a gonna get drafted.

[Raycetpfl]

How many days do you think before exxon would be running the oil wells in Iran if they keep up their shit?

I say lights out on all infrastructure in 7 days and the wells are back exporting in 30 days with a red white and blue upc on the barrels.

[goodlun]

How many days do you think before exxon would be running the oil wells in Iran if they keep up their shit?

I say lights out on all infrastructure in 7 days and the wells are back exporting in 30 days with a red white and blue upc on the barrels.

A lot longer than you think. Occupation is costly. That is when you get into the horrors of asymmetrical warfare, that asymmetrical aspect is what makes the US look to be less effective than it really is. The conventional portion of a war would be relatively quick but all the shit after that phases, years. That said Exxon can move in during that phase so who knows. Can we make Exxon pay the military contractors/mercenaries to protect their assets?

[BKR]

It wasn't an accident that guided missile cruiser shot down that airliner, either. No way, no how. The captain of the ship told them to launch...

And I didn't even read the wiki article, lol. I remember that shit, armageddon was a comin, and I was a gonna get drafted.

http://www.dod.mil/pubs/foi/reading_room/172.pdf

[BKR]

How many days do you think before exxon would be running the oil wells in Iran if they keep up their shit?

I say lights out on all infrastructure in 7 days and the wells are back exporting in 30 days with a red white and blue upc on the barrels.

We (the US) does not need their oil.

Pick another evil multinational oil company. Maybe the French one...yeah, my money would be on TOTAL.

We are not going to invade Iran. That's a fool's errand.