Iran War now? Yea or nay?

[BKR]

They don't call it information warfare for nothin.

Trust nothing but what you see and hear yourself. I think that's the lesson of this thread so far. Sure we went in some circles, but that's fine. It's called the constant comparative approach, it's essential for developing a working theory grounded in empirical evidence.

Do not trust, then verify. Zero trust, until you are positive and not a moment sooner. Right now I wouldn't generally believe anything coming out of either government.

As far as the CIC, this guy has more credibility when it comes to military news.

Working theory...

[Michael Tzadok]

They can, but some things that still don't quite line up for me.
I am not trying to be obstinate here I am plenty willing to admit I am wrong when I am wrong.
I am certainly more along the spectrum that flight might have been targeted for some reason.
Questions that I would like resolved and will get resolved with more time durning investigation.
If hit by an Anti-Aircraft missile while climbing how was it able to try and turn back towards the airport and crash facing the airport a good distance away from impact.
Why this air craft and not any others in the sky at the time.
Why would an AA missile site be right there and why would operators whom have been watching air craft take off and land over and over again make an error.
What possible benefit does targeting that plane give anyone?
These are all things that need to be answered.

Turning back was a pilot error. It most certainly ended any chance of saving anyone on board. The pilot clearly panicked on that one(assuming he had the 11k hours that the Ukraine claimed) he should have been well beyond that mistake. As far as how it was able, that is going to depend on what kind of AA it was. I'm still doubting a TOR, as I've seen them take off half an F15(F15 was still able to land though, video below). Civilian aircraft, while not armored, are large and tend to have a lot more redundancy built in than military craft. So if it was only one missile/rocket depending on impact zone, it is a possibility.

Was this the only aircraft in the sky at the time? FlightRadar24 and a few other tracking sites show three departures scheduled for that time. I forgot to check arrivals. So it doesn't seem to have been the only one.

As far as why AA would be around an airport... many small middle eastern countries have "duel use" airports. Meaning that their airport is both for civilian and military use, thus making it a legit military target. So protect what you built.

No clue why they would target a civilian plane.

ⁱ

Watching an earlier program, analysis was possible Iranian AA stating that if on auto, the system wouldn't necessarily need human response to send. Got to be fake news though, cause FOX.

Right???

Hmmm.... complicated. By international aviation treaty those things are supposed to need a manual override to target anything with a commercial IFF transponder.

[Michael Tzadok]

Oh and here is the video of the incident for people who don't want to go to another site:

[W. Rabbit]

No clue why they would target a civilian plane.

I can think of one.

[Dung Beatles]

A lot of them were Iranian professors teaching in Canada...

I don't know exactly what you are implying here.

To me, it's just further proof that this was a screw up. Why would the Iranians want to kill their own academics whether or not they were working on foreign soil? That's a damn good paycheck in Iran.

[BKR]

I don't know exactly what you are implying here.

Why would the Iranians want to kill their own academics whether or not they were working on foreign soil? That's a damn good paycheck in Iran.

You are just not evil enough.

[goodlun]

We shall see footage could still be a hoax(not saying it is), no running lights on the Airplane (might by to far away), but the most curious thing to me is this looks like cellphone footage as opposed to security can(could also be mistaken), it begs the question why someone would be filming that bit of sky at 6 am.
It's certainly possible that it's a legit video.
Also have any day photos been released showing an AA battery in the proximity?
Any reports from pilots that saw a missile on their radars?
I don't want to be conspiratorial myself but look at the players that are involved in setting the narrative and who stands to gain from it. This also applied to Irans narrative I am my saying I believe them either.
It is looking more likely the plane was shot down but I am still reserving some judgement due to the expected play books in this situation.
So I ask my self, what would I need to see to believe it beyond a reasonable doubt?
At this point two things expect VFX analysis of the footage.
Verifiable sat images of AA assets in range at the time.
Then I would be pretty convinced.

[goodlun]

Almost might I add that has to be the calmest person ever to video an explosion. No reaction what so ever.

[submessenger]

You are just not evil enough.

Wait, was Jordan Peterson on the manifest?

[Dung Beatles]

You are just not evil enough.

I am certainly not. I'll let you in on a little secret. I believe that being nice to people as a rule of good manners generally helps achieve a better outcome. Yeah, it sounds weird but I started working on this theory that life turns out better if you're just nice to people by default as a teenager and then when I got to college and learned about game theory it really took off. Almost ***ALMOST*** turned into a well researched thesis on the nature of cooperation and conflict. It veered a little bit into the nature of betrayal and conflict and eventually became a treatise on how illogical players are more dangerous than smart players and finally died somewhere in math hell. It was around this time that I realized that pot could make you better at logic but less likely to meet deadlines.

I can't say I don't stray from it but I almost always regret it.

"If you can't forgive someone, forget it as soon as possible". That's another good one.

[Dung Beatles]

it begs the question why someone would be filming that bit of sky at 6 am.

Someone on twitter said that the guy started filming because there was another missile before that one or maybe because it was the night of a big conflict with the US and he couldn't sleep, saw something in the sky and wanted to record it out of curiosity.

Also may have looked different in person because he was filming on a shitty cell phone camera not designed to take good long distance shots. Like every time I have tried to take a good morning shot of Mt Baker on my drive into work on a beautiful morning. It looks like the mountain is much further away than it did from my actual view.

It's all hearsay until we get the facts though.

Iran News is claiming that isn't a missile in the video but the plane itself on fire.

[Michael Tzadok]

Someone on twitter said that the guy started filming because there was another missile before that one or maybe because it was the night of a big conflict with the US and he couldn't sleep, saw something in the sky and wanted to record it out of curiosity.

Also may have looked different in person because he was filming on a shitty cell phone camera not designed to take good long distance shots. Like every time I have tried to take a good morning shot of Mt Baker on my drive into work on a beautiful morning. It looks like the mountain is much further away than it did from my actual view.

It's all hearsay until we get the facts though.

Iran News is claiming that isn't a missile in the video but the plane itself on fire.

Replying to the bold:
Not buying that at this point. SAMs have a very distinct look, here see these.

Speed, track, explosion all of it looks like a SAM impact.

[W. Rabbit]

Someone on twitter said that the guy started filming because there was another missile before that one or maybe because it was the night of a big conflict with the US and he couldn't sleep, saw something in the sky and wanted to record it out of curiosity.

Also may have looked different in person because he was filming on a shitty cell phone camera not designed to take good long distance shots. Like every time I have tried to take a good morning shot of Mt Baker on my drive into work on a beautiful morning. It looks like the mountain is much further away than it did from my actual view.

It's all hearsay until we get the facts though.

Iran News is claiming that isn't a missile in the video but the plane itself on fire.

Too bad for Tehran, you can hear a solid fuel rocket booster travelling at least 1500 mph, even if you are blind.

Then, about 10 seconds later you hear the explosive concussion wave once it reaches the phone holder.

There's a very small chance the video is a deep fake, because sadly, that's a thing now. But the acoustics have convinced me it's real, based on timing.

[PDA]

Someone on twitter said that the guy started filming because there was another missile before that one or maybe because it was the night of a big conflict with the US and he couldn't sleep, saw something in the sky and wanted to record it out of curiosity.

Also may have looked different in person because he was filming on a shitty cell phone camera not designed to take good long distance shots. Like every time I have tried to take a good morning shot of Mt Baker on my drive into work on a beautiful morning. It looks like the mountain is much further away than it did from my actual view.

It's all hearsay until we get the facts though.

Iran News is claiming that isn't a missile in the video but the plane itself on fire.

They discover somebody on that plane shouldn't be on it.

First message gets through to control "tell them to come back now"

The plane starts to turn .

During this time the military operating separately from the airport and desperately start communicating among themselves which results in a missile going launched which missed.

Dude pulls out his camera.

Something something Iranian military, two more go off and hit the plane.

Canada probably know exactly who they wanted hence being so sure it was shot down.

Hows that Ghost?

[Bneterasedmynam]

We shall see footage could still be a hoax(not saying it is), no running lights on the Airplane (might by to far away), but the most curious thing to me is this looks like cellphone footage as opposed to security can(could also be mistaken), it begs the question why someone would be filming that bit of sky at 6 am.
It's certainly possible that it's a legit video.
Also have any day photos been released showing an AA battery in the proximity?
Any reports from pilots that saw a missile on their radars?
I don't want to be conspiratorial myself but look at the players that are involved in setting the narrative and who stands to gain from it. This also applied to Irans narrative I am my saying I believe them either.
It is looking more likely the plane was shot down but I am still reserving some judgement due to the expected play books in this situation.
So I ask my self, what would I need to see to believe it beyond a reasonable doubt?
At this point two things expect VFX analysis of the footage.
Verifiable sat images of AA assets in range at the time.
Then I would be pretty convinced.

Somehow I doubt you would be convinced even if you had a window seat during the impact.