Iran War now? Yea or nay?

[W. Rabbit]

Has anyone else here actually seen AA/SAMs fired at night? Good grief go back and watch some patriot missile footage from Desert Storm, they were SAMs meant to compete with the TOR M1.

There is nothing in that home video that looks anything like an AA missile. Even a shoulder fired rocket, like a "stinger" is pretty spectacular to watch.

On board bomb or incendiary device I would believe. But "shot down", you all really need to see some night footage of what that looks like to know that ain't what happened.

It wasn't night though, it was the very early morning (6am)

From what I've seen so far, the only video available is cell phone video of the crashing plane, not what happened beforehand.

Most of the people onboard were Iranian, so it's very plausible there was a terrorist onboard. Based on the timetable, it would have been prime time to blow something up, knowing the finger pointing that would ensue.

I don't see any intentional reason for the government to do it. And I don't think the Iranian military would have been so careless, either, but that's how the US will play this

[Michael Tzadok]

Look I would almost believe that some trigger happy guy sitting in a Dishka or some other AAA battery clacked off a few rounds into an engine, but until I see footage of the reverse shooting star of a SAM, I'm not buying missile.

[Dr. Gonzo]

I still think it was a drunk maintenance tech that didn't tighten down a fuel line quite to spec.

Here is my bet:

See Patlogan's end of times prophecy threads.

People are just bursting into flames, man.

It's the third sign of the Mayan long heads aliens return.

[goodlun]

Iran is going to straight fucking admit to doing it and some.of y'all are still going to be going through the mental gymnastics of explaining how they didn't do it

When they admit to it we will at least have some evidence other than timing.
As someone that professionally trouble shoots all sorts of things.
From people to things, processes, outside factors, ECT.
Timing is important but focusing to heavily on it can fuck you up.

[Michael Tzadok]

It wasn't night though, it was the very early morning (6am)

From what I've seen so far, the only video available is cell phone video of the crashing plane, not what happened beforehand.

Sorry it was the break of dawn. You still would have seen the reverse shooting star effect along with an exhaust plume(thanks to the sunlight). Not seeing either in the footage or the still I can find online.

[goodlun]

I should also note that the frequency I see critical systems being critically fucked up is usually post maintenance.
Hence why I keep bringing up the fact that the timing to be looked at is the Plane had maintenance done 2 days before hand.

Bad shit happens sometimes without a boogyman.

[W. Rabbit]

Sorry it was the break of dawn. You still would have seen the reverse shooting star effect along with an exhaust plume(thanks to the sunlight). Not seeing either in the footage or the still I can find online.

Something happened well before the video was recorded. Put another way, we only have a few seconds of video. We'd need.about 5m to get the full picture.

Given the flight path and length of time the cockpit was unresponsive, there's a big window of time before loss on radar. And no mayday as far as I know.

So something catastrophic occurred, but the plane didn't fall right out of the sky. For whatever reason, we don't know what the pilots might have reported. But there was marginal flight control for some time, about 5 minutes, and that's when the recordings start, right before the crash 5m already in.

[Michael Tzadok]

Something happened well before the video was recorded.

Given the flight path and length of time the cockpit was unresponsive, there's a big window of time before loss on radar. And no mayday as far as I know.

So something catastrophic occurred, but the plane didn't fall right out of the sky. There was marginal flight control for some time, about 5 minutes, that's when the recordings start, right before the crash.

I get that. A AA missile would have obliterated part of the plane, and made a second debris field, which is why many people believe that TWA 800 was shot down.

Stable flight... might still be somewhat possible depending on where the detonation occurred.

There is just too much missing for this to have been a missile.

[goodlun]

Something happened well before the video was recorded. Put another way, we only have a few seconds of video. We'd need.about 5m to get the full picture.

Define well, cause the time table I have seen is the plane was only in the air for 3 mins before the explosion. It was still in it's initial aggressive take off climb.

[W. Rabbit]

So to make matters worse, the head of Iran's version of the FAA is spouting reactive bullshit which I'm sure is some PR playbook but is sure to just things murkier.

"If a rocket or missile hits a plane, it will free fall"

No.

"How can a plane be hit by rocket or missile” and then the pilot “try to turn back to the airport?”

No.

How did this knucklehead get that job?

[hungryjoe]

In the vernacular of the meth heads, this thread has legs.

[goodlun]

Iran is going to straight fucking admit to doing it and some.of y'all are still going to be going through the mental gymnastics of explaining how they didn't do it

So honestly ask your self, what evidence would it take for you to not believe that this was a missile strike? What will it take to make you to eat crow?

I have a prevailing idea in my head but it's highly mutable if presented with evidence.
I am more interested in the truth than being right.

Being right doesn't buy me a damn thing. I am not that committed to it.
I am just taking the most conservative approach to evaluating evidence instead of jumping to wild conclusions.

[W. Rabbit]

Define well, cause the time table I have seen is the plane was only in the air for 3 mins before the explosion. It was still in it's initial aggressive take off climb.

It crashes at 5m in flight, but we don't know if or when there was an explosion. We need the box for that. All we know is something happened at T+3m

We only know there was a fire because of the ground video, you can see the plane on fire. We know the plane was returning to port but was unsuccessful.

There are just too many missing pieces to really do much but induce a guess at this point. Which is exactly why the US and Europe will milk this until we have more data. And why I am not going near social media for at least a week.

[ghost55]

So honestly ask your self, what evidence would it take for you to not believe that this was a missile strike? What will it take to make you to eat crow?

I have a prevailing idea in my head but it's highly mutable if presented with evidence.
I am more interested in the truth than being right.

Being right doesn't buy me a damn thing. I am not that committed to it.
I am just taking the most conservative approach to evaluating evidence instead of jumping to wild conclusions.

There's sat footage apparently. Iran's denials are half hearted and technically lacking at best.

[Michael Tzadok]

Wait the pilot tried to turn back on take off? That is actually the leading cause of deaths on take off accidents. It is something new pilots are told never to do, and a mistake many middling pilots make when they experience an inflight emergency, before they have enough experience to know better.

If the pilot tried to turn back instead of putting it down
somewhere, that probably doomed everyone aboard. It is precisely the mistake that Sully Sullenberg(the Hero of the Hudson) didn't make when he managed to save everyone aboard his flight when he lost both engines from AA... I mean a bird strike, but they seem to be the same thing these days.