Iran War now? Yea or nay?

[It is Fake]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and disagree with the theory that Iran didn't intend casualties. Not only does it not fit with the last 41 years of aggression, it also conflicts with reporting inside Iran.

Iran is telling their own citizens there were American casualties.

That’s fine. We will all pretend that somehow the missiles were so slow and obvious that EVERYONE was able to perfectly hide to avoid injuries or casualties. I mean, no government lies to the public.

https://www.npr.org/2019/12/18/78927...in-afghanistan

[W. Rabbit]

Yeah and Syria, Egypt, Lebanon and Iraq all still claim that they won every war with Israel. You are thinking too much like a Westerner. Iran also reports that there are no Iranian gay people and never had been because of the purity of their belief. They just disappear them. Spend more time watching Middle Eastern media and you will be ready to give Alex Jones a Pulitzer prize.

Haha no thanks. I already get too many briefings on Iran in any given week. No need or desire for 3rd hand opinions and religious propaganda. Saves me a shitload of time and concern. My daily routine is much cleaner since I stopped listening to Al-Jazeera et al.

[W. Rabbit]

"I believe based on what I saw and what I know that they were intended to cause structural damage destroy vehicles and equipment and aircraft, and to kill personnel. That's my own personal assessment," said Army Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, when speaking to reporters on Wednesday,"

Army Gen. Mark Milley
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

[Dr. Gonzo]

Because it is incredibly vague and immensely incomplete, enough to be misleading.

Their paper was crap.

The issue is much simpler in reality.

There is an artificial perception of scarcity regarding oil put out by the suppliers,

and also oil use is demonized by the radical environmentalists.

And gasoline at the pump is often heavily taxed.

Oil has transportation costs, and has transportation risk.

But, outside of the artificial perception of scarcity which is used to inflate price,

oil more naturally has the potential to be very cheap indeed, in fact much cheaper than it currently is.

Other than that, it comes down to simple supply and demand, as with all commodity market traded goods.

Nope. Both have Masters in Economics. Nice attempted appeal to authority there, which you continue here:

They are bank analysts that write crap papers for a living, for banks.

And not just any bank, but the Reserve Bank of Australia, which is the bank you can really, really count on when you need Foreign Officials bribed and then you need that covered up poorly.

If the people at banks really knew anything about speculation or investment success,

then they would not need to be soliciting money in the form of consumer deposits, outside investment, or begging for money to lend at the government discount windows.

They would be managing their own money privately.

Most people who work at banks as analysts, junior traders, loan officers, managers, or even junior executives

are usually actually mortgaged to the hilt, living beyond their means, and in essence, broke with a nice set of suits, a nice leased car, and a nice watch, but little or no actual net worth.

Which brings us to you.

That's nice. Amongst other finance roles I managed a $1.6billion commercial property REIT portfolio (both listed and unlisted) for over 10,000 investors (both retail and institutional), a roughly $800m loan book and over $500m in deriviative hedges under three ISDA's. Your appeal to authority is still a fallacy.

I know why I don't work at a hedge fund anymore, the 24 hour trading and its effect on my personality almost ruined my marriage, and over time, I discovered that I really don't like trading or betting with other people's money.

I notice that you did not say that you "traded" or made trading decisions on the vehicles you listed above.

Which makes me guess that you perhaps were part of the accounting team bean counting on them, or perhaps in compliance, or you were in a finance department logistical role.

And I notice your language indicates that periphery involvement for you was in the past, not the present.

Which makes me really think you were in accounting or a finance logistical role.

Unless you are a cancer survivor, a heart attack survivor, a father of very sick child or a widower, etc.

But I am going to assign that a low probability, and just go with the probably good guess that you were and are a bean counter who used to help bean count and report or do logistical finance work but you were not in charge of the investment or trading decisions on those vehicles.

rather than "perceived value, marketing and supply side manipulation".

Why does everyone with a sunk philosophical investment always get their panties in such a fucking wad when I bring up that manipulation occurs?

From convincing young athletes that wearing the same brand basketball shoe as their heros will make them play better,

to making the public think margarine was better for you than butter,

manipulation is at the heart of marketing, or affecting purchase decisions.

Again, the Reserve Bank of Australia was caught manipulating by bribing foreign officials, and then covering it up.

So the bank associated with the link you provided manipulates, the oil suppliers manipulate, academics both manipulate and are easy to manipulate, and so are members of the press, politicians, your doctor, etc, etc.

Not every conspiracy is a tin foil hat event, many conspiracies are in fact called doing business, or the colluding players arranging for an optimal Nash equilibrium for themselves.

[Dr. Gonzo]

The link I posted was not in evidence of anything but in explanation of a complex topic you are seemingly qualified to answer but too disinterested to explain.

Again, I gave some high level bullet points on the market side,

And was hoping BKR would address the fossil fuel extraction technology side,

as he is a trained geologist who used to work doing applied research,

and doing applied science, in the fossil fuel extraction industries.

The cool thing about environments like these forums is you actually get to hear from people with hands on expertise, as posters, and discourse with them.

Anybody can google links without these forums, or the opportunity they provide, to actually discourse with people who have expertise in various areas themselves.

And in fact, it is when the links start being posted that you have a fair signal that the person posting the links probably not only does not know about what is being discussed themselves, but just often did not even bother to read, thoroughly read, or fact check the contents of the link they are posting themselves.

Especially not in this age of over marketing, click bait headlines, fake news, and the Interweb.

[ghost55]

Their paper was crap.

The issue is much simpler in reality.

There is an artificial perception of scarcity regarding oil put out by the suppliers,

and also oil use is demonized by the radical environmentalists.

And gasoline at the pump is often heavily taxed.

Oil has transportation costs, and has transportation risk.

But, outside of the artificial perception of scarcity which is used to inflate price,

oil more naturally has the potential to be very cheap indeed, in fact much cheaper than it currently is.

Other than that, it comes down to simple supply and demand, as with all commodity market traded goods.

They are bank analysts that write crap papers for a living, for banks.

And not just any bank, but the Reserve Bank of Australia, which is the bank you can really, really count on when you need Foreign Officials bribed and then you need that covered up poorly.

If the people at banks really knew anything about speculation or investment success,

then they would not need to be soliciting money in the form of consumer deposits, outside investment, or begging for money to lend at the government discount windows.

They would be managing their own money privately.

Most people who work at banks as analysts, junior traders, loan officers, managers, or even junior executives

are usually actually mortgaged to the hilt, living beyond their means, and in essence, broke with a nice set of suits, a nice leased car, and a nice watch, but little or no actual net worth.

Which brings us to you.



I know why I don't work at a hedge fund anymore, the 24 hour trading and its effect on my personality almost ruined my marriage, and over time, I discovered that I really don't like trading or betting with other people's money.

I notice that you did not say that you "traded" or made trading decisions on the vehicles you listed above.

Which makes me guess that you perhaps were part of the accounting team bean counting on them, or perhaps in compliance, or you were in a finance department logistical role.

And I notice your language indicates that periphery involvement for you was in the past, not the present.

Which makes me really think you were in accounting or a finance logistical role.

Unless you are a cancer survivor, a heart attack survivor, a father of very sick child or a widower, etc.

But I am going to assign that a low probability, and just go with the probably good guess that you were and are a bean counter who used to help bean count and report or do logistical finance work but you were not in charge of the investment or trading decisions on those vehicles.


Why does everyone with a sunk philosophical investment always get their panties in such a fucking wad when I bring up that manipulation occurs?

From convincing young athletes that wearing the same brand basketball shoe as their heros will make them play better,

to making the public think margarine was better for you than butter,

manipulation is at the heart of marketing, or affecting purchase decisions.

Again, the Reserve Bank of Australia was caught manipulating by bribing foreign officials, and then covering it up.

So the bank associated with the link you provided manipulates, the oil suppliers manipulate, academics both manipulate and are easy to manipulate, and so are members of the press, politicians, your doctor, etc, etc.

Not every conspiracy is a tin foil hat event, many conspiracies are in fact called doing business, or the colluding players arranging for an optimal Nash equilibrium for themselves.

I love how you're fine with cooking the planet to death but gambling with other people's money is a bridge too far. You have a very strange concept of morality.

[ghost55]

In other news there are pics of the wreckage of the plane emerging that show what appear to be shrapnel holes as well as the nose cone from a SAM.

[W. Rabbit]

In other news there are pics of the wreckage of the plane emerging that show what appear to be shrapnel holes as well as the nose cone from a SAM.

We discussed those holes yesterday, "shrapnel" doesn't mean weapon. It could be any part of the plane ripping through other parts at explosive high speed.

Air traffic data shows the plane turned and was attempting to return to the airport before it crashed, throwing some water on the AA theory.

"Nose cone of a SAM", that stinks of a redditor theorycrafting about a pic...let's see this so-called "nosecone". Can't wait for the MS Paint circles all over the picture and stuff.

[ghost55]

We discussed those holes yesterday, "shrapnel" doesn't mean weapon. It could be any part of the plane ripping through other parts at explosive high speed.

Air traffic data shows the plane turned and was attempting to return to the airport before it crashed, throwing some water on the AA theory.

"Nose cone of a SAM", that stinks of a redditor theorycrafting about a pic...let's see this so-called "nosecone". Can't wait for the MS Paint circles all over the picture and stuff.

Asshole friend only sent me screenshots of the article. I've asked him for the link but he hasn't gotten back to me yet. I'd post the screenshots but somehow I doubt you'd be satisfied.

[Dr. Gonzo]

I love how you're fine with cooking the planet to death but gambling with other people's money is a bridge too far. You have a very strange concept of morality.

Blame my stomach.

It started to hurt, and I started to worry about losing their money.

Good traders, good fighters, and good programmers need a certain amount of confidence that borders on fearlessness in the specific situations that require it.

So, I got out right before the housing market bubble burst.

I missed that profit opportunity and I missed that potential for catastrophe, too.

But, I knew something was wrong when mortgage brokers were flying their girlfriends to Costa Rica on private jets after a deal.

It was too good, too hot, and I never could even understand the golf course community project valuations, and the high end real estate simultaneous close up valuation churn, let alone the subprime.

When Warren Buffet said he could not understand nor articulate the derivative valuations, and he was signaling problems in the markets that could be far reaching regarding making investments in banks, but complete dummies were hot potating deals and catching huge monies,

That sounded too much like Tulips for me, and I got out, and went into merger and acquisitions and doing diligence for venture capital groups instead.

Of course, I recommended against most of the mergers and acquisitions as well.

I had become a real pessimist, and cautious cynic.

You can't properly trade with that mindset, unless you are shorting, and shorting is expensive and risky compared to transactional costs going the other way (except commodities and currencies).

That bit of extra vig makes it that much more difficult to profit, or avoid losses.

And shorting commodities or currencies in very volatile or manipulated markets is exceptionally risky because outside of some option strategies, your stop losses can be completely blown through in one quick swing, even if the swing back is almost immediate - at which point you ate a loss and would have to pay to get back in, often at the wrong entry point.

So, there is that sausage.

Not to mention a $100 million pot, managed by a three man team may be nimble, but it is just too fucking small potatoes to get into the really good trades the right way in the public markets where the institutional whales play.

So, it was fun, but there was not enough clear and verifiable positive expectation advantage for me to feel comfortable betting other people's money any longer.

[W. Rabbit]

Asshole friend only sent me screenshots of the article. I've asked him for the link but he hasn't gotten back to me yet. I'd post the screenshots but somehow I doubt you'd be satisfied.

Of course I wouldn't be satisfied without anything short of bits of ordnance.

I mean, there are all sorts of pictures flying all over, and yes there are holes in what's left of the plane. But that's what happens when they crash and explode.

There was definitely a fire on board, which right now is the likeliest cause of the crash. Out of respect for the dead I won't post actual screenshots, but caution, some of these are really disturbing to those with empathy. Don't ruin your day if you don't have to by sifting through the wreckage yourself. Just saying.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...cal-media.html

[W. Rabbit]

So we are basing this conversation on movies now?
Yes yes I know about the actual operation.

Cool, then you might be interested in the fact that 36% of the people on the plane were Canadians.

Just the facts.

[Dr. Gonzo]

Cool, then you might be interested in the fact that 36% of the people on the plane were Canadians.

You know what they say about people with Middle Eastern accents or affectations that have Canadian passports...

[ghost55]

Here is the pic of the missile nose cone circulating or Iranian social media: https://mobile.twitter.com/babaktagh...74920263979009

Looks exactly like the nose cone from an M1 SAM.

[ghost55]

Ukranians are also investigating that possibility: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...plored-ukraine