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  • BKR
    replied
    Originally posted by Dr. Gonzo View Post
    Perhaps BKR will chime in...
    Wut?

    Am not racist so on Discord with Sub. Getting nostalgic about the good old days.

    So, yeah, US has plenty of oil and gas. Need more refineries, tho.

    Diamonds, well, Debeers, monopoly and marketing.

    Its fucking Carbon...

    Leave a comment:


  • Dr. Gonzo
    replied
    Originally posted by Dr. Gonzo View Post
    Why should it not be?

    What do you know of Michelle Cunningham and Emma Smith?

    Did you even think to know their names before I mentioned them?

    They are line level staff in an the economic analysis department and international analysis department respectively.

    Probably both junior analysts with bachelor's degrees.

    One of things that shocked me when I was a member of the press is how many of the press not only do not have much credential, but are on shoe string budgets.

    They often act mystified when I tell them to pull an academic article.

    They do not have the access, unless they buy them personally.

    And they are too poorly paid to do that.

    Likewise, many staff writers in government agencies are new, and green, and naive.

    So, sure maybe I am a fool.

    I have a Masters degree in Applied Economics, another Masters degree in Risk Management,

    and I used to trade currencies, commodities, equities, and bonds in ten million dollar lots

    (which is nothing, the large banks trade them in half billion, or billion dollar lots, called yards).

    And I co-managed a $100 million private investment,

    and I co-managed $60 million in second positions behind $300 million in real estate first positions that churned twice or thrice or more a year in new deals,

    and I was the guy that programmed the risk management models.

    And sure we did not take a loss in the several years I was there playing the 2 points and 12% model.

    Which actually meant we were not taking enough risk, so that is nothing to brag about.

    But, I am definitely still a fool in many ways.

    I am sure the junior analysts, Michelle Cunningham and Emma Smith, with no letters behind their name, who wrote that paper are really on the ball.

    In any case, I am still more interested in what BKR has to say about oil and shale extraction potential than your paper link, seemingly written by two junior analysts. Since he actually worked in that industry.
    And hopefully some of you are getting the drift why I detest the idiocy that posting "links" are proof or evidence of any kind,

    unless the sausage is dug into, and can be verified by "us", or really me, in my own case.

    I remember once when I was giving shit to Refco, about something or other regarding their claims of safety to hold our money.

    Their response was, which they said so many times I got sick of it quickly,

    "we are a billion dollar company, we have been in business for X years".

    Well, those fuckers went belly up a few years after that.

    Acting like links or appeals to institutional authority is proof or evidence, is a lotta booshit.

    PS - I did not put our, or our client's money, with those fuckers.

    Even though they were claiming confidence by consensus out that wazoo.

    Leave a comment:


  • Dr. Gonzo
    replied
    Originally posted by cualltaigh View Post
    Right. The summarised version of the Dynamic Factor Model of commodity prices in a paper written by an economist titled "Exploring the Supply and Demand Drivers of Commodity Prices" is way less useful in understanding how the price of oil is determined than:
    Why should it not be?

    What do you know of Michelle Cunningham and Emma Smith?

    Did you even think to know their names before I mentioned them?

    They are line level staff in an the economic analysis department and international analysis department respectively.

    Probably both junior analysts with bachelor's degrees.

    One of things that shocked me when I was a member of the press is how many of the press not only do not have much credential, but are on shoe string budgets.

    They often act mystified when I tell them to pull an academic article.

    They do not have the access, unless they buy them personally.

    And they are too poorly paid to do that.

    Likewise, many staff writers in government agencies are new, and green, and naive.

    So, sure maybe I am a fool.

    I have a Masters degree in Applied Economics, another Masters degree in Risk Management,

    and I used to trade currencies, commodities, equities, and bonds in ten million dollar lots

    (which is nothing, the large banks trade them in half billion, or billion dollar lots, called yards).

    And I co-managed a $100 million private investment,

    and I co-managed $60 million in second positions behind $300 million in real estate first positions that churned twice or thrice or more a year in new deals,

    and I was the guy that programmed the risk management models.

    And sure we did not take a loss in the several years I was there playing the 2 points and 12% model.

    Which actually meant we were not taking enough risk, so that is nothing to brag about.

    But, I am definitely still a fool in many ways.

    I am sure the junior analysts, Michelle Cunningham and Emma Smith, with no letters behind their name, who wrote that paper are really on the ball.

    In any case, I am still more interested in what BKR has to say about oil and shale extraction potential than your paper link, seemingly written by two junior analysts. Since he actually worked in that industry.
    Last edited by Dr. Gonzo; 1/09/2020 12:00am, .

    Leave a comment:


  • goodlun
    replied
    https://www.npr.org/2020/01/08/79451...assad-air-base
    Some interesting photos in there, and interesting conjecture that the Irians might have specifically targets equipment instead of people.
    Not sure how much I buy that given the equipment used to attack the base.
    However it would have been a very wise move on their part.

    Leave a comment:


  • cualltaigh
    replied
    Originally posted by Dr. Gonzo View Post
    I am not sure that is the best use of time, or at least, the ideas to start with.
    Right. The summarised version of the Dynamic Factor Model of commodity prices in a paper written by an economist titled "Exploring the Supply and Demand Drivers of Commodity Prices" is way less useful in understanding how the price of oil is determined than:

    Originally posted by Dr. Gonzo View Post
    Perceived value.

    Marketing campaigns.

    Oligopoly collusion.

    Leave a comment:


  • hungryjoe
    replied
    Spent the past couple of days looking over the various news reports and talking heads interviewing experts.

    As expected. We're all in danger of WWIII. Driving home today, even NPR can't help themselves. Ask a question. Have the "expert" say his/her point and point out an alternative view. Let "expert" give expert view while the reporter never follows back up with any type rebuttal. This one was Adam Schiff. We've heard Pelosi, Warren, Biden et al.

    The difference in how this as opposed to the former administration's actions were covered is night and day.

    Anyone willing to give them a nod should maybe listen to this. It's five minutes of your life. A view you won't hear from the usual outlets, not at any length. Cause President Cheetolini.

    Iran's people were not by any majority sad to see that fireball at the Iraq airport.

    Leave a comment:


  • Dr. Gonzo
    replied
    Originally posted by cualltaigh View Post
    Until he does, here is some light reading on the subject:

    https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/...ty-prices.html
    I am not sure that is the best use of time, or at least, the ideas to start with.

    Australia is the fourth leading producer of coal.

    And has large shale deposits.

    Australia has some ideal geo-location for hydro and wind power, and in part makes good use of them.

    And Australia also has some power from solar.

    Australia has slowed in drilling for more oil fields.

    But, that may be as much political as due to scarcity of potential new oil fields.

    Australia has no nuclear plants, in part due to very generous and cheap fossil fuel deposits,

    and perhaps in part due to the old ooga booga hysteria over nuclear power.

    Australia is the world's third largest producer of uranium,

    and may have up to one third of the world's known uranium deposits.
    Last edited by Dr. Gonzo; 1/08/2020 10:35pm, .

    Leave a comment:


  • goodlun
    replied
    Originally posted by Cassius View Post
    That is why I want to see if the passenger manifest had anyone interesting on it.
    I mean if they where Iranian just making them disappear is enough without blowing up a whole dang plane.
    Fuck its easy enough to detain anyone inside of Iran as it is.
    It doesn't make much sense as a state sponsored hit.
    So I am far more inclined to believe that its a tragic accident with coincidental timing.
    Especially since it was just serviced, I have seen enough mistakes in other maintenance activities that have caused catastrophic events to not be suspicious of that.

    That is not to say, if evidence presents otherwise I wouldn't be SUPER shocked, but I have no call to start believing otherwise till that sort of evidence is shown.

    Leave a comment:


  • Michael Tzadok
    replied
    Originally posted by AprilRains View Post
    you're killin' me here, Smalls
    What Gonzo is saying is that it is a falsely inflated market. That actual supply far outweighs demand, so the various oil companies don't close but slow the tap to make it seem like there is a supply issue. DeBeers, for instance, could stop mining diamonds today, and still provide diamonds(at current demand rates) for the next 300-500 years. So why are diamonds(rocks that you can't eat and which can be artificially grown to greater perfection in a lab) so expensive? Because they have manipulated the market for the sake of profit.

    Gonzo is saying that the Oil industry is doing the same thing. I've heard the same thing from friends that deal in the futures market, though myself I know nothing more than the average citizen about fuel prices(i.e. when the price at the pump goes up I pay more and want to blame someone).

    Leave a comment:


  • cualltaigh
    replied
    Originally posted by Dr. Gonzo View Post
    Perhaps BKR will chime in...
    Until he does, here is some light reading on the subject:

    https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/...ty-prices.html

    Leave a comment:


  • Cassius
    replied
    Originally posted by goodlun View Post
    i am too lazy to do it right now but you can see that this air port is very busy, there had to be other Air Craft in the Air at the time so this really cuts down on the chance that its was AA
    https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airports/ika

    Maybe a bomb or something to that ilk but then we really have to start looking for motive.
    That is why I want to see if the passenger manifest had anyone interesting on it. The fact that the flight was Ukrainian is interesting. Russia and Iran are buds, but that isn't exactly a damning indictment. Iran seems perfectly willing to hand over the black boxes, at least. AA measures don't seem likely, but there are a lot of other ways to crash an airplane.

    Most likely an tragic accident with coincidentally suspicious timing vs a deliberate incident. But still interesting.

    Leave a comment:


  • Dr. Gonzo
    replied
    Originally posted by Dr. Gonzo View Post
    Understood.

    Perceived value.

    Marketing campaigns.

    Oligopoly collusion.

    Meanwhile, natural gas is just leaking out of many places all over the world, like Papa New Guinea, where in many places you can stick bamboo into the ground and hold a lighter over it and you will have a bright torch when you take your lighter away.

    Texas tea, aka black gold, is found in many countries.

    And energy technology in fossil fuel extraction, as well as nuclear proceeds at a rapid clip,

    despite the massive PR campaigns, public hysteria, and fake news to the contrary.
    Perhaps BKR will chime in...

    Leave a comment:


  • goodlun
    replied
    i am too lazy to do it right now but you can see that this air port is very busy, there had to be other Air Craft in the Air at the time so this really cuts down on the chance that its was AA
    https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airports/ika

    Maybe a bomb or something to that ilk but then we really have to start looking for motive.

    Leave a comment:


  • Dr. Gonzo
    replied
    Originally posted by AprilRains View Post
    you're killin' me here, Smalls
    Understood.

    Perceived value.

    Marketing campaigns.

    Oligopoly collusion.

    Meanwhile, natural gas is just leaking out of many places all over the world, like Papa New Guinea, where in many places you can stick bamboo into the ground and hold a lighter over it and you will have a bright torch when you take your lighter away.

    Texas tea, aka black gold, is found in many countries.

    And energy technology in fossil fuel extraction, as well as nuclear proceeds at a rapid clip,

    despite the massive PR campaigns, public hysteria, and fake news to the contrary.

    Leave a comment:


  • W. Rabbit
    replied
    Originally posted by AprilRains View Post
    you're killin' me here, Smalls
    You rang?

    Leave a comment:

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