Iran War now? Yea or nay?

[BKR]

I will not disagree about being a shithead, but the 1st Amendment means people in this country are free (for the most part) to speak their mind, even if what they say is stupid, inflammatory or disruptive. To claim otherwise is arguing against free speech.

The 1st protects speech from suppression BY THE GOVERNMENT.

That is why the mods can ban people here for speaking in certain ways, using certain words, violating TOS via speech, whatever.

Nobody here wants to suppress anybodies speech.

That is what they do on Discord.

[BKR]

Yeah, and if everybody could just realize that, and practice a little cognitive dissonance, we might be able to have a rational discussion.

I WANT to be called out on any BS I put out (when it's serious, LOL), even if it challenges my current interpretation of so-called reality.

I mean it hurts, but...

[hungryjoe]

I'm not sure what you mean.

Russia is an oil producing country. Russia would profit if Iran were not able to sell their oil. It wouldn't just be China paying more, it would be the entire world.

While Russia does have it's own oil, it doesn't, other than Crimea (the reason they "annexed"), have ports. They don't give a fart in the wind for Assad but they covet continued access to Syrian ports.

Plus, Strait of Hormuz.

[goodlun]

I'm not sure what you mean.

Russia is an oil producing country. Russia would profit if Iran were not able to sell their oil. It wouldn't just be China paying more, it would be the entire world.

Oil producing and oil exporting doesn't mean you don't also import Oil.
Take the US for example.
U.S. exported roughly 7.5 million barrels of petroleum per day.
United States imported about 9.94 million barrels per day (MMb/d)

We could have just imported 2.44 million barrels per day instead.
That is because their are a ton of supply chain logistics involved in moving Oil around.

Yes everyone will pay more if the global supply goes down, well sort of.
Strategic Oil reserves, oil futures, other contracts, and the supply chains involved means that the speculative market will cause more of an upset than actual decrease of volume.
Not all producers are at capacity right now.
Why it will impact China more is the supply chain logistics of it all.

[BKR]

You didn't use "neocon" or swear-words, so, no, you can do better.

[goodlun]

I feel the exact same way. Should we just give it Israel?

China would actually be a better bet, they want to play more on the global scale and have resources in the region that they want. It would also allow them to be more engaged in middle eastern policy. They also sit on the security console.

[hungryjoe]

The Iranian government has allied with Russia in the past but when it comes to the Kremlin, the history lesson I learned is that they don't really have allies in the same sense that other countries do. They just have partners they haven't stabbed in the back yet. The Kremlin wants vassal states, not partners.

The Kremlin wants influence and places to sell their goods. Be if petroleum products, weapons or other. They are a land locked, for the most part country. Global reach is their goal.

You think they give a squat about Venezuella? Cuba or other countries in that hemisphere?

[BKR]

I've seen some new reports, claiming that the US's European "allies" are upset by the "escalation". Could someone please explain this to me. I'm really not getting it. Has something so profoundly changed that is now acceptable to attack another nation's embassy?

I'll give it a shot.

The Euroweenies want to do business with Iran, including selling them "peaceful" nuke technology. In fact, they were, as I recall. So lifting the sanctions etc. are an important part of their business model for making more money.

They think that those guys will just sort out all their shit out, and it won't have any effect on Europe, because, reasons. Like, short term financial gain.

I'll further speculate, they think that once Iran has achieved hegemony in the Middle East (and beyond), they will be satisfied and settle down, even if they have nukes.

If just the USA would leave them the fuck alone, profit for everybody.

Plus, they don't give a rats ass for Israel. Europe made Israel to solve the "Jewish Problem", and they did, so now you guys are on your own.

How am I doing ? Is that neocon or what ?

[BKR]

Right, I remember the context of his other posts from when he started posting here. That's why I don't just blow him off.

[BKR]

The US has shown great restraint, in reality. We could have taken that guy out many, many times. I bet they had him in the crosshairs on almost a continuous basis. And of course, he knew that. I'll give him he was a brave man, who thought he was acting in the best interest of his country, and likely religious beliefs. Those are kind of inseparable at the at leve of government in Iran right now.

I am sure his family and colleagues will miss him and all that, and I don't begrudge them that.

He chose his path, though, and now he is gone. We all will suffer a similar fate, one way or the other.

[hungryjoe]

I was born in 1962. Am I a boomer, or a what ?

Am I even awake ? snrrrrkkkk, snort, wtf is going on?

It's like those multiple-level dreams, where you think you are awake but then wake up, and find out you are still dreaming. Usually a nightmare...

62? I was thinking you were 64 vintage. Old fart.

[BKR]

No one wants to play team politics? It seems to me like everyone wants to play team politics. You are either team red, and this everything team blue does is wrong. Or you are team blue and everything team red does is wrong.

Team USA...

[goodlun]

So I thought on this for some time:

No, we understand,

I think you understand, and I think some others understand but I see a lot of people that don't understand.
Its more than just rehetoric and semantics.
The nuanced difference to me is this.
With one, one can argue that this was a 1/2 cocked idea that Trump had that had no planning, no understanding of possible repercussions.
You see the arguments in the this thread specifically about this being a problem because Trump did it, and he is so unstable ect ect ect.

I want to point out that a lot of people put in work before it even hit Trumps desk. That their was a lot more thought to it. That the Military was ready for this action and not merely reacting to the President.

I get that you likely get it, and that their are a number of people in this thread that also get it.
However a couple days of terrible brinkmanship on social media and here, makes me strongly believe others think this was purely a top down last min, no thought decision.

[Dr. Gonzo]

The US has shown great restraint, in reality. We could have taken that guy out many, many times. I bet they had him in the crosshairs on almost a continuous basis. And of course, he knew that. I'll give him he was a brave man, who thought he was acting in the best interest of his country, and likely religious beliefs. Those are kind of inseparable at the at leve of government in Iran right now.

I am sure his family and colleagues will miss him and all that, and I don't begrudge them that.

He chose his path, though, and now he is gone. We all will suffer a similar fate, one way or the other.

I am remarkably without sadness about his passing.

[BKR]

This is a good article:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/03/w...-iran-war.html
One thing they sort of missed out on though is how Iran being at war does impact Russia and China much more than other countries in the region.

I am also not sure I agree with this assessment:
Iran is a regional power with far more sophisticated military capabilities than any country that the United States has gone to war with since World War II.
Well, it is "true" but its still leaves an impression that they are sophisticated or that sophistication offers up a challenge that the US military isn't prepared for.
Israel F35 adir has proven effective against the S-300. The equipment added to the Adir isn't insignificant. However the B2 is more than capable of taking out S300 sites.
The Iranians have no air assets that challenge F22s or F35s.

The main problem for the US will be if Iran goes all in and sends more troops etc. into Iraq. We don't have the assets on the ground to stop a full-scale invasion. They can have the whole country, despite our our air superiority, if they want, before the US plus or minus the so called International Community, can do a damned thing about it. Like Sadaam did with Kuwait.

I mean, sure, battlefield nukes, but...