Iran War now? Yea or nay?

[goodlun]

Well, I'm not ruling out an incompetent idiot with too much firepower but revenge is a funny thing to a bigot. I wouldn't be surprised if it was a little bit of both. Too angry to see straight so someone didn't do his due diligence to confirm the target and as a result a lot of innocent people died.

The guy had been in power for a very long time. You don't stay in power unless you act deliberately with the intention to stay in power. His actions are always calculated. So not make the mistake to think he is dumb or driven by emotion.

[Dung Beatles]

We already established in another thread that evil doesn't exist. So....

This is exactly where my mind went.

[W. Rabbit]

Do you have a non-paywall version?

Yes, it's called go there without using privacy mode.

Short short version, it's somebody's back yard phone video, from maybe few miles away?

There's a visible streak of some sort, and bright impact, and then off camera the sound of an explosion. So given the speed of sound I'm guessing the final sound is the projectile impact reaching the viewer after traveling about 2-3 miles.

According to the timeline the plane would stay airborne for at least another 2m

[Dung Beatles]

Should be noted that the reuters information comes from Canadian security source's. They do not have the same capacity as the US but they also don't have the same political motivation to cast Iran in a negative light.
So it is very interesting.
This is certainly far from a case closed sort of situation.

They also have a motive to get to the bottom of it because, if I read correctly, somewhere around 60-something passengers on the flight were Canadian nationals.

[W. Rabbit]

Funny enough, and yes the video is still crappy no matter what your eyes tell you, the acoustic analysis of this is pretty open and shut.

To be blunt, I sure think I hear the sound of a solid fuel rocket.

[Dung Beatles]

What motive would Iran have for picking a fight with the Ukraine when Europe is intent on sitting this one out?

Well, I'm not ruling out an incompetent idiot with too much firepower but revenge is a funny thing to a bigot. I wouldn't be surprised if it was a little bit of both. Too angry to see straight so someone didn't do his due diligence to confirm the target and as a result a lot of innocent people died.

[AprilRains]

This is a great jab

at Gonzo's posting style, so

I must call it out.

That, and a line of dialogue from the Canadian television comedy Bullet in the Face. That line appears in the show complete with lengthy pauses, and it was such a good match for the Doctor's posting style that I couldn't resist.

[goodlun]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/v...e-missile.html

Do you have a non-paywall version?

[W. Rabbit]

Even now, it's important to keep in mind this video does not clearly show what's being concluded. We are still working on a theory with no smoking gun but maybe some circumstantial video and intel.

A better video might make things clearer, but this is low quality, amateur stuff from miles away.

A missile? Maybe. An explosion, definitely.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/v...e-missile.html

[goodlun]

It shouldn't take a genius to figure out that I work with Ka, Ku, and C band RF quite a bit.

[goodlun]

For fun, the SA-15 uses K band (microwave) and H band (infrared) for tracking.

Oh if we are talking K band, moisture in the air and other water molecules start to greatly attenuate it.
We even run into issues of Weather related Attenuation with Ka Band Sat comms.

[goodlun]

I am literally an intermediate to expert on Satellite Communications, Radar and Sonar.
I had the same thought as Rabbit.
That this would be one hell of a SIGINT feat.
I don't rule it completely out, you could place some higher end SDRs inside of an intelligence asset in the area.
It is pretty easy to have passive antennas listening in on things.
HOWEVER that is highly unlikely, as you do have to develop other types of assets in order to install these sorts of things and the risk to reward for those assets isn't favorable at all.
When you think of RF you really have to think about the Inverse square law.
This is where math and physics start to really get in the way.
A lot of these systems are using small wavelength rf bands so that they get better resolution.
But you start to lose a lot of information really fast with them as well.
Especially with atmospheric attenuation.

[W. Rabbit]

Frequency used for M1 SAM launchers is distinct from that used by ATC and civilian aircraft, and we have a ton of sensors aimed at every fucking airstrip in the country?

Points for tryin'.

For fun, the SA-15 uses K band (microwave) and H band (infrared) for tracking.

And I'm positive that any SAM batteries outside Tehran track incoming and departing flights all the time. So if all the evidence is a radar lock, it's circumstantial.

Which reminds me, why would an Iranian AA battery think a target moving away from Tehran might be a threat?

Maybe there should be an actual investigation or something. This isn't CSI: Iran.

[Michael Tzadok]

Frequency used for M1 SAM launchers is distinct from that used by ATC and civilian aircraft, and we have a ton of sensors aimed at every fucking airstrip in the country?

So a few pages back you didnt know how the warhead on a TOR worked, and now you are an expert in its radar?

If we got all these sensors, radar and counter radar pointed at Iran, why did NORAD have to detect the missile launches at the bases?

Like seriously, we have in theater things that are worried about AA batteries, but not ballistic missiles. The Titanic had fewer holes in it than your theories.

[ghost55]

Seriously, I'm trying to figure out in my head how you spot a short range radar system lock inside another country, outside that country's busiest airport. At low altitude.

Right now all I can come up with is magic Harry Potter goggles.

Help.

Frequency used for M1 SAM launchers is distinct from that used by ATC and civilian aircraft, and we have a ton of sensors aimed at every fucking airstrip in the country?