Iran War now? Yea or nay?

[goodlun]

Somehow I doubt you would be convinced even if you had a window seat during the impact.

I am actually way easier to convince than you think, I am just waiting for everything to play out and asking questions. I actually suspect upon investigation a sufficient quantity of those will be answered. The US is actually really good about providing proof instead of just saying trust us.
So we will see. I don't have an unusual distrust of the US government.

[Michael Tzadok]

No. I work in the airline industry and can talk to pilots on daily. This is WAAAAAAAAY to simplistic and you have no idea if it was a mistake, pilot error, if the pilot panicked or why he turned back.

My inlaws own an airport and flight school in WA St. What I do know is that turning bleeds airspeed, which is essential to stable flight, and on a severely damaged plane trying to 360+ degree turn is almost never considered a good idea. I also know that trying to turn back is the leading cause of death on takeoff related incidents. So unless you have something more than you work win the industry, at the very least the decision didn't help anything and quite probably prevented a rough touch down that may have saved lives.

[It is Fake]

Turning back was a pilot error. It most certainly ended any chance of saving anyone on board. The pilot clearly panicked on that one(assuming he had the 11k hours that the Ukraine claimed) he should have been well beyond that mistake. As far as how it was able, that is going to depend on what kind of AA it was. I'm still doubting a TOR, as I've seen them take off half an F15(F15 was still able to land though, video below). Civilian aircraft, while not armored, are large and tend to have a lot more redundancy built in than military craft. So if it was only one missile/rocket depending on impact zone, it is a possibility.

No. I work in the airline industry and can talk to pilots on daily. This is WAAAAAAAAY to simplistic and you have no idea if it was a mistake, pilot error, if the pilot panicked or why he turned back.

[Bneterasedmynam]

Upon impact, they were all window seats.

[W. Rabbit]

Somehow I doubt you would be convinced even if you had a window seat during the impact.

Upon impact, they were all window seats.

[Bneterasedmynam]

We shall see footage could still be a hoax(not saying it is), no running lights on the Airplane (might by to far away), but the most curious thing to me is this looks like cellphone footage as opposed to security can(could also be mistaken), it begs the question why someone would be filming that bit of sky at 6 am.
It's certainly possible that it's a legit video.
Also have any day photos been released showing an AA battery in the proximity?
Any reports from pilots that saw a missile on their radars?
I don't want to be conspiratorial myself but look at the players that are involved in setting the narrative and who stands to gain from it. This also applied to Irans narrative I am my saying I believe them either.
It is looking more likely the plane was shot down but I am still reserving some judgement due to the expected play books in this situation.
So I ask my self, what would I need to see to believe it beyond a reasonable doubt?
At this point two things expect VFX analysis of the footage.
Verifiable sat images of AA assets in range at the time.
Then I would be pretty convinced.

Somehow I doubt you would be convinced even if you had a window seat during the impact.

[PDA]

Someone on twitter said that the guy started filming because there was another missile before that one or maybe because it was the night of a big conflict with the US and he couldn't sleep, saw something in the sky and wanted to record it out of curiosity.

Also may have looked different in person because he was filming on a shitty cell phone camera not designed to take good long distance shots. Like every time I have tried to take a good morning shot of Mt Baker on my drive into work on a beautiful morning. It looks like the mountain is much further away than it did from my actual view.

It's all hearsay until we get the facts though.

Iran News is claiming that isn't a missile in the video but the plane itself on fire.

They discover somebody on that plane shouldn't be on it.

First message gets through to control "tell them to come back now"

The plane starts to turn .

During this time the military operating separately from the airport and desperately start communicating among themselves which results in a missile going launched which missed.

Dude pulls out his camera.

Something something Iranian military, two more go off and hit the plane.

Canada probably know exactly who they wanted hence being so sure it was shot down.

Hows that Ghost?

[W. Rabbit]

Someone on twitter said that the guy started filming because there was another missile before that one or maybe because it was the night of a big conflict with the US and he couldn't sleep, saw something in the sky and wanted to record it out of curiosity.

Also may have looked different in person because he was filming on a shitty cell phone camera not designed to take good long distance shots. Like every time I have tried to take a good morning shot of Mt Baker on my drive into work on a beautiful morning. It looks like the mountain is much further away than it did from my actual view.

It's all hearsay until we get the facts though.

Iran News is claiming that isn't a missile in the video but the plane itself on fire.

Too bad for Tehran, you can hear a solid fuel rocket booster travelling at least 1500 mph, even if you are blind.

Then, about 10 seconds later you hear the explosive concussion wave once it reaches the phone holder.

There's a very small chance the video is a deep fake, because sadly, that's a thing now. But the acoustics have convinced me it's real, based on timing.

[Michael Tzadok]

Someone on twitter said that the guy started filming because there was another missile before that one or maybe because it was the night of a big conflict with the US and he couldn't sleep, saw something in the sky and wanted to record it out of curiosity.

Also may have looked different in person because he was filming on a shitty cell phone camera not designed to take good long distance shots. Like every time I have tried to take a good morning shot of Mt Baker on my drive into work on a beautiful morning. It looks like the mountain is much further away than it did from my actual view.

It's all hearsay until we get the facts though.

Iran News is claiming that isn't a missile in the video but the plane itself on fire.

Replying to the bold:
Not buying that at this point. SAMs have a very distinct look, here see these.

Speed, track, explosion all of it looks like a SAM impact.

[Dung Beatles]

it begs the question why someone would be filming that bit of sky at 6 am.

Someone on twitter said that the guy started filming because there was another missile before that one or maybe because it was the night of a big conflict with the US and he couldn't sleep, saw something in the sky and wanted to record it out of curiosity.

Also may have looked different in person because he was filming on a shitty cell phone camera not designed to take good long distance shots. Like every time I have tried to take a good morning shot of Mt Baker on my drive into work on a beautiful morning. It looks like the mountain is much further away than it did from my actual view.

It's all hearsay until we get the facts though.

Iran News is claiming that isn't a missile in the video but the plane itself on fire.

[Dung Beatles]

You are just not evil enough.

I am certainly not. I'll let you in on a little secret. I believe that being nice to people as a rule of good manners generally helps achieve a better outcome. Yeah, it sounds weird but I started working on this theory that life turns out better if you're just nice to people by default as a teenager and then when I got to college and learned about game theory it really took off. Almost ***ALMOST*** turned into a well researched thesis on the nature of cooperation and conflict. It veered a little bit into the nature of betrayal and conflict and eventually became a treatise on how illogical players are more dangerous than smart players and finally died somewhere in math hell. It was around this time that I realized that pot could make you better at logic but less likely to meet deadlines.

I can't say I don't stray from it but I almost always regret it.

"If you can't forgive someone, forget it as soon as possible". That's another good one.

[submessenger]

You are just not evil enough.

Wait, was Jordan Peterson on the manifest?

[goodlun]

Almost might I add that has to be the calmest person ever to video an explosion. No reaction what so ever.

[goodlun]

We shall see footage could still be a hoax(not saying it is), no running lights on the Airplane (might by to far away), but the most curious thing to me is this looks like cellphone footage as opposed to security can(could also be mistaken), it begs the question why someone would be filming that bit of sky at 6 am.
It's certainly possible that it's a legit video.
Also have any day photos been released showing an AA battery in the proximity?
Any reports from pilots that saw a missile on their radars?
I don't want to be conspiratorial myself but look at the players that are involved in setting the narrative and who stands to gain from it. This also applied to Irans narrative I am my saying I believe them either.
It is looking more likely the plane was shot down but I am still reserving some judgement due to the expected play books in this situation.
So I ask my self, what would I need to see to believe it beyond a reasonable doubt?
At this point two things expect VFX analysis of the footage.
Verifiable sat images of AA assets in range at the time.
Then I would be pretty convinced.

[BKR]

I don't know exactly what you are implying here.

Why would the Iranians want to kill their own academics whether or not they were working on foreign soil? That's a damn good paycheck in Iran.

You are just not evil enough.