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    Why is the stock market down?

    So as I recall when Trump became US president the stock market dipped a bit but then started rising.

    Donald Trump is the same guy today that he was back then.

    However now the stock market is way down.

    This doesn't make sense because he is the same guy. Why does it do opposite things over the same guy doing the same things?

    It was no secret that Trump's actions are kind of random and contrary to best practices and primarily about appearance rather than substance. It was clearly a trait of his for years. Surely people can't just be realizing now? Why the stock market drop now and not earlier?
    Lone Wolf McQuade Final Fight: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmrDe_mYUXg

    #2
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn...day/index.html

    What down? Rise and fall. Feds announcing next years intended hikes helped nada.
    Carter Hargrave's Jeet Can't Do

    http://www.bullshido.net/forums/showthread.php?t=31636

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      #3
      Originally posted by Wounded Ronin View Post
      So as I recall when Trump became US president the stock market dipped a bit but then started rising.

      Donald Trump is the same guy today that he was back then.

      However now the stock market is way down.

      This doesn't make sense because he is the same guy. Why does it do opposite things over the same guy doing the same things?

      It was no secret that Trump's actions are kind of random and contrary to best practices and primarily about appearance rather than substance. It was clearly a trait of his for years. Surely people can't just be realizing now? Why the stock market drop now and not earlier?
      People are dumb as shit and conspiracy theorist dumb shits. Quit overestimating their ability to use sound logic.
      The Caucasian always has stronger strength and when comes to grappling, Caucasians mostly win easily. I do know grappling and if I used it on Asians my size, it works. - Kung Fu dude that got waxed at OneFc try out.

      Comment


        #4
        The stock market is one big casino.
        GET A RED BELT OR DIE TRYIN'.
        Originally posted by Devil
        I think Battlefields and I had a spirited discussion once about who was the biggest narcissist. We both wanted the title but at the end of the day I had to concede defeat. Can't win 'em all.
        Originally posted by BackFistMonkey
        I <3 Battlefields...

        Comment


          #5
          Originally posted by battlefields View Post
          The stock market is one big casino.
          I always find people's reaction interesting when you point out to them that "blue-chip"stock/investment is a poker reference (blue chip denoting the highest denomination for your gamble).
          2018 Male Purple Belt Adult No Gi
          #2 Ranked Competitor - QBJJC

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by Wounded Ronin View Post
            So as I recall when Trump became US president the stock market dipped a bit but then started rising.

            Donald Trump is the same guy today that he was back then.

            However now the stock market is way down.

            This doesn't make sense because he is the same guy. Why does it do opposite things over the same guy doing the same things?

            It was no secret that Trump's actions are kind of random and contrary to best practices and primarily about appearance rather than substance. It was clearly a trait of his for years. Surely people can't just be realizing now? Why the stock market drop now and not earlier?
            Clearly the stock market is such a limited and simple mechanisim that all movements can be prescribed to and explained by one variable, namely the personal attributes of the head of government in one country (albeit the largest singular market in the global economy).

            Edit:

            A more serious response (it's Dec 27 here and I've been back at work for over two hours and in dire need of further caffeination):

            Whilst Trump may be the same person he was two years ago, what wasn't apparent then was that he would openly engage in a trade war with China, increase territorial tension regarding the south China Sea and the level of his de-stabilising influence on the US government (not least of which being the continual flirting with inpeachment).

            There are other factors that could be at play too (I say could as no-one really knows for sure which variables are more influencial than others).
            The continued policy disaster that is Brexit, a slump in world oil prices, the continued shift to online purchases and it's affect on retail sales and employment forecasts, renewed military action in Syria by US backed allies etc. etc.
            Last edited by cualltaigh; 12/26/2018 6:29pm, .
            2018 Male Purple Belt Adult No Gi
            #2 Ranked Competitor - QBJJC

            Comment


              #7
              I blame Bush Sr and Clinton and Obummer!
              Liberal Conspiracy by the Democrats!
              Build the Wall Reagan wanted!
              No RINO GOP!
              Stand by President Trump!
              I don't mean to sound bitter, cold, or cruel, but I am, so that's how it comes out.
              BILL HICKS,
              1961-1994

              "Never believe that anti-Semites are completely unaware of the absurdity of their replies. They know that their remarks are frivolous, open to challenge. But they are amusing themselves, for it is their adversary who is obliged to use words responsibly, since he believes in words. The anti-Semites have the right to play. They even like to play with discourse for, by giving ridiculous reasons, they discredit the seriousness of their interlocutors. They delight in acting in bad faith, since they seek not to persuade by sound argument but to intimidate and disconcert. If you press them too closely, they will abruptly fall silent, loftily indicating by some phrase that the time for argument is past."
              ---Jean-Paul Sartre

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by Wounded Ronin View Post
                So as I recall when Trump became US president the stock market dipped a bit but then started rising.

                Donald Trump is the same guy today that he was back then.

                However now the stock market is way down.

                This doesn't make sense because he is the same guy. Why does it do opposite things over the same guy doing the same things?

                It was no secret that Trump's actions are kind of random and contrary to best practices and primarily about appearance rather than substance. It was clearly a trait of his for years. Surely people can't just be realizing now? Why the stock market drop now and not earlier?
                In short the Stock Market doesn't rise or fall based on who is in office. In general the stock market is an indicator of consumer confidence in the economy. When consumer confidence drops, so does the stock market. As consumer confidence rises so does the stock market. Actions of the president can cause fluctuations in the stock market, however, those will correct if the market is strong. So the President saying the market is going to go to shit and polling his advisors to see if he can fire the chairman of the fed, as well as shutting down the government while simultaneously entering a trade war with China might, taken all together, at least momentarily shake consumer confidence in the economy.

                Oh I guess this is also where I point out that you don't have to be a US citizen to buy US stocks and it has been pretty out the in the open for nigh on forever that China bought heavily into the US stock market, so being in a trade war with China it is entirely possible that China is manipulating the US stock market in order to harm the US economy. Oh they could also cyberattack the stock market.

                Originally posted by battlefields View Post
                The stock market is one big casino.
                Only to day traders and people who are clueless to the economy. Otherwise it is historically a safer investment than placing your money in a savings account. Over any five year period, including that of the great depression, the market index has risen by an average of 11%. It is a safe and reliable means of long term investment. Unless you are a serious market analyst than short term investment is indeed more like gambling.
                Don't rely on theory if your life is at stake.

                "But now that you've anointed him as truthsayer, you'll be complicit with what happens when the next Jew comes here and is lambasted by an ultrasecular Rabbi" -W.Rabbit/Pship/Emily Dickinson/Earth Dragon/Self Proclaimed Editor Extraordinaire

                Comment


                  #9
                  Wasn't there a massive gain immediately after Christmas?
                  GET A RED BELT OR DIE TRYIN'.
                  Originally posted by Devil
                  I think Battlefields and I had a spirited discussion once about who was the biggest narcissist. We both wanted the title but at the end of the day I had to concede defeat. Can't win 'em all.
                  Originally posted by BackFistMonkey
                  I <3 Battlefields...

                  Comment


                    #10
                    1000 points up. Comes every year "came late" this year. Last I checked we lost 500 since then.

                    I don't want to check it.
                    I don't mean to sound bitter, cold, or cruel, but I am, so that's how it comes out.
                    BILL HICKS,
                    1961-1994

                    "Never believe that anti-Semites are completely unaware of the absurdity of their replies. They know that their remarks are frivolous, open to challenge. But they are amusing themselves, for it is their adversary who is obliged to use words responsibly, since he believes in words. The anti-Semites have the right to play. They even like to play with discourse for, by giving ridiculous reasons, they discredit the seriousness of their interlocutors. They delight in acting in bad faith, since they seek not to persuade by sound argument but to intimidate and disconcert. If you press them too closely, they will abruptly fall silent, loftily indicating by some phrase that the time for argument is past."
                    ---Jean-Paul Sartre

                    Comment


                      #11
                      "Dow rises 150 points, erases a 600-point drop in wild session"
                      ---Updated 6 Mins Ago

                      https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/27/futu...eet-surge.html
                      I don't mean to sound bitter, cold, or cruel, but I am, so that's how it comes out.
                      BILL HICKS,
                      1961-1994

                      "Never believe that anti-Semites are completely unaware of the absurdity of their replies. They know that their remarks are frivolous, open to challenge. But they are amusing themselves, for it is their adversary who is obliged to use words responsibly, since he believes in words. The anti-Semites have the right to play. They even like to play with discourse for, by giving ridiculous reasons, they discredit the seriousness of their interlocutors. They delight in acting in bad faith, since they seek not to persuade by sound argument but to intimidate and disconcert. If you press them too closely, they will abruptly fall silent, loftily indicating by some phrase that the time for argument is past."
                      ---Jean-Paul Sartre

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Im not expert but i wouldnt be surprised if it has to do with US leaving syria and iraq. Alot of people profit from wars.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Whilst Trump may be the same person he was two years ago, what wasn't apparent then was that he would openly engage in a trade war with China, increase territorial tension regarding the south China Sea and the level of his de-stabilising influence on the US government (not least of which being the continual flirting with inpeachment).
                          So the President saying the market is going to go to shit and polling his advisors to see if he can fire the chairman of the fed, as well as shutting down the government while simultaneously entering a trade war with China might, taken all together, at least momentarily shake consumer confidence in the economy.

                          Oh I guess this is also where I point out that you don't have to be a US citizen to buy US stocks and it has been pretty out the in the open for nigh on forever that China bought heavily into the US stock market, so being in a trade war with China it is entirely possible that China is manipulating the US stock market in order to harm the US economy. Oh they could also cyberattack the stock market.
                          These and the increase by the Fed in interest rates are affecting volatility in the markets. Speculators are trying to cash in on this volatility as well. Additionally, this last week, the US government shut down and some of the normal Federal data were not released, causing more uncertainty.

                          Although the market is not controlled by one individua, Trump has more influence than any other president in that he is causing more uncertainty with his shooting off on twitter. Take his phone away and some stabilization will ensue.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            The stock market has all the ryme and reason of bitcoin.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              IMHO, there is a cyclical element in the economy, that doesn't depend on Trump. As Obama entered the presidency in the middle of a very bad recession, for most of his presidency the economy grew (helped by government and fed policies of course) but at the end of his presidency growth slowed.
                              I think that Trump's policies (the increased deficit caused by tax cuts) boosted the economy again, but in such a way that most of the money went into financial, rather than real, investment.
                              This because deficit by tax cuts gives money to rich people, who want to save or invest, but not to poor people, who want to consume, so rich people find few real investment outlets because of low demand and end up buying bitcoins or similar.
                              Furthermore, the economy was already close to peak, so there were few real investment outlets to begin with.
                              So we are currently in a situation where the real economy isn't growing (at least not by much) but some people continue to throw money in the stock market whose valuations go up because of this, but since this growth in the stock market doesn't correspond to a growth in the real economy these valuations depend mostly on expectations of a rise in prices and can collapse very easily.

                              I expect a recession soon (I'm actually expecting it since 2016), I write it here so if it doesn't happen I'll look like a moron.

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