PDA

View Full Version : hmmm, what would Bin Laden want?



Pages : [1] 2 3 4 5 6

Sam Browning
10/30/2004 12:37pm,
I've been having an interesting argument with myself. Bin Laden obviously hates our current president, but if you or I were in his shoes, who would you rather see lead the U.S., Kerry or Bush? For reasons I will elaborate, I suspect he is more partial to Kerry though this might be a matter of what he sees as being in his interest rather than WHAT IS ACTUALLY IN HIS INTEREST. We simply do not know how much he knows about Kerry's record or if he is having CNN translated for him.

My report card on Bush if I were Bin Laden would be the following:

Strengths: -- Bush Believes in himself unconditionally, and is willing to do what it takes to "win", including invading other countries and staying in Iraq and Afganistan semi-permanently.

Weaknesses -- or why Bin Laden is better off with Bush in charge. Bush has no attention to detail and has made a series of mistakes from Iraq to Afganistan that have mismanaged the war. For example going in to Iraq with too few troops, disbanding Iraq's army, ect. Bin Laden could also hope that Bush would invade yet another country, (Iran-Syria) which would further expand the USA's military goals over-extending their resources, and result in a worse fiasco. Bush is also very good at pissing other countries off, he's like a bull in a china shop, in the long term this will help Bin Laden.

Kerry

Stengths -- Is probably more adept at diplomacy and making less waves then Bush, will probably focus more on the details of the war on terror and appoint people who are more attuned to tactics rather than neo-con theory.

Weakness -- Kerry does not have the stomach for a long term US deployment in Iraq and Afganistan so he would be more likely to guarantee defeat by leaving before all hope for success has been exhausted. Similarly he is less fearsome then George Bush, and probably has more scruples or will be gripped by more indecision before ordering military action.

If I was Bin Laden I might simply analyze the situation along weakness/strength lines, and not move to the more complez question of whether Kerry is a more competent manager and diplomat then Bush.

Given that Al-Quada drove Spain out of Iraq by blowing up some trains several days before their election, I suspect that Bin Laden is making a deliberate choice by not targetting the US for any terrorist attacks before this election. While our security services would probably catch wind of a multiple person attack, I believe, given the porous Mexican border, that if Al Quada wanted to slip a couple of people across this boarder carrying explosive suicide vests they could. If I was Bin Laden and I wanted to throw an election to George Bush, I would have despatched say 15-20 such people with explosive vests, and had the ones who got through target a couple public places in swing states three days before the election. Three hamas style bombings in say Ohio, Penn, and Florida would scare the hell out of the American people and they would tend to swing their support behind Bush under the (mistaken) assumption that as the man currently in charge, and the resident hard ass, he would protect them. Interestingly Arial Sharon in Israel benefits from the same political dynamics.

That such attacks have not taken place is some indication that Bin Laden does not want to help Bush get re-elected, and rightly or wrongly sees him as more of a threat then a **** up, though my analysis is based on the controversial assumption that if AL Quada really wanted to slip a couple solo bombers across US boarders with plastic explosives they could pull this off in order to carry out solitary attacks.

MaverickZ
10/30/2004 12:42pm,
Now, i'm no political expert, as a matter of fact i'm not even close. But i personally think that bin Laden doesn't care who gets elected. He'll want to kill us all anyway. If Bush is reelected he will use that as a reason to attack the usual targets. If Kerry gets elected, he'll find some other reason to continue killing.

Sam Browning
10/30/2004 12:45pm,
I agree he'll continue to kill Americans regardless of who wins, but the question you correctly raise is will he even prefer one presidential contender over another? If I were in his shoes I would have thought it over enough to have a preference and made a decision whether to act on this preference.

SRK85
10/30/2004 12:46pm,
Bin Laden doesnt give a **** about who's president.

Sam Browning
10/30/2004 12:47pm,
While I can only prove he hates Bush, I suspect otherwise.

Judah Maccabee
10/30/2004 12:51pm,
I can tell you samurai_steve would want you to review the legal cases in that thread I mentioned earlier. :p

As for who he would want in power, I think he'd prefer Kerry. Kerry doesn't seem to have the same resolve to defeat radical Islam.

MaverickZ
10/30/2004 12:52pm,
Well, a question I would have is even if he does want Kerry elected what _can_ he do besides attack or don't attack to show his approval? Does he have diplomatic influence over middle east leaders?

Sam Browning
10/30/2004 12:54pm,
The only think he can do is to commit acts of violance which probably help Bush, certainly a positive endorsement to Kerry would not help him.

And Steve, your right, I need to get on those cases.

feedback
10/30/2004 3:12pm,
WWBLD?

I'd wear that.

Mr. Mantis
10/30/2004 4:53pm,
If I was Bin Laden and I wanted to throw an election to George Bush, I would have despatched say 15-20 such people with explosive vests, and had the ones who got through target a couple public places in swing states three days before the election. Three hamas style bombings in say Ohio, Penn, and Florida would scare the hell out of the American people and they would tend to swing their support behind Bush under the (mistaken) assumption that as the man currently in charge, and the resident hard ass, he would protect them.

We have concealed carry in all three of those states, so bring 'em on!!!!
:qleft7: :5badair:

I would think people would vote for Kerry in that instance. Reason being is that Bush is in control, and he is responsible for letting them get through. Remember, Kerry will personally hunt down and kill the terrorists!

As to the question at hand, I don't think Bin Laden cares who is president.

But if he did care, I would think he would want Bush in power. Reason: The people over there hate Bush with a passion. So much so that I believe his being in power is a stimulus for individuals to jump into the extremeist, kill the infidel camps. He's good for their recruitment business.

It seems it would be a little more difficult to shift the animosity towards a new face.

Jenfucius
10/30/2004 8:00pm,
who gives a **** what bin laden thinks?

Jolly_Roger
10/30/2004 8:06pm,
Samuel, while I generally agree with you, I must contend the point of Spain.
The Spanish people were opossed to the war on the first place. Only the strongarming of the president (now, ex-president), was what carried on the invasion anyway.
And perhaps, that's the sum of the difference in our point of view.
If the U.S. would retreat from the Middle East, and control of the economy, the society and the military would be restored to those who actually live there, Bin Laden (who's a merchant of death, there's no denying that) would have a lot of a harder time finding recruits. Not an impossible time, because, how many civilians have died in this war?, but a harder time nontheless.
While it's probably true, the allegation that Bin Laden wants to kill americans, how many americans want to kill Iraqis, or arabs, or muslims?

SRK85
10/30/2004 9:34pm,
If that is really Bin Laden he wants Bush to be re elected so he can still live. Bush doesnt give a rats ass about Osama Bush made that clear a long time ago. Bush's main target all alone has been Hussien.

DJeter1234
10/30/2004 9:39pm,
if Bin laden could turn indirect opression into what he had to carry out 9-11, he could turn the invasion into much more. Ironically, he probably would have a slogan like "Never again."

Can Chaser
10/30/2004 10:17pm,
... y'all really think that Bil Laden gives a flying **** about who's president?

From what I've read and hear about in reference to radical Islam and in the news, he/they don't give a **** about who he/they're trying to wipe out, other than western culture in general.

Sam Browning
10/30/2004 11:15pm,
Samuel, while I generally agree with you, I must contend the point of Spain.
The Spanish people were opossed to the war on the first place. Only the strongarming of the president (now, ex-president), was what carried on the invasion anyway. ?

I concede this point, but the bombings did directly result in his party's loss at the polls.




If the U.S. would retreat from the Middle East, and control of the economy, the society and the military would be restored to those who actually live there, Bin Laden (who's a merchant of death, there's no denying that) would have a lot of a harder time finding recruits. Not an impossible time, because, how many civilians have died in this war?, but a harder time nontheless.
While it's probably true, the allegation that Bin Laden wants to kill americans, how many americans want to kill Iraqis, or arabs, or muslims?

At one point in time this would have probably been true. But BL's true hatred of the USA stems from the gulf war and our use of Saudi Arabia as a base for our invasion/liberation of Kuwait. In other words even since 1990, 1991 he's been looking to drive the US (including civilians) out of saudi arabia, and then attack the US. Even withdrawing our presence from the region now would not appease him. Secondly America can not afford to retreat from the Middle East because of our dependance on oil. Hey its ruthless, but we can't allow to have someone like Saddam monopolize the oil supply there for reasons of self interest.

I honestly do not know how many Americans want to kill Iraqis, arabs, or muslims, but since not one member of these groups have been killed in America since 911 as a result of a hate crime, I'd guess, not many. Though that obviously does not rule out regular prejudice or possible denials of civil rights by my government.