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  1. Conde Koma is offline
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    Posted On:
    9/10/2009 8:16pm

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     Style: Judo,MT,Boxing,BJJ

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    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    I didn't think it had to be said, but if you want, there's someone better than me who has said so.
    http://mma.fanhouse.com/2009/01/03/f...-has-no-techn/
  2. ArrogantBastard is offline

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    Posted On:
    9/10/2009 8:21pm


     Style: BJJ

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    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    Quote Originally Posted by Conde Koma View Post
    I didn't think it had to be said, but if you want, there's someone better than me who has said so.
    http://mma.fanhouse.com/2009/01/03/f...-has-no-techn/
    Yeah but then this happened:




    Looks like his credibility went down the drain.
  3. Conde Koma is offline
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    Posted On:
    9/10/2009 8:24pm

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     Style: Judo,MT,Boxing,BJJ

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    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    Did you watch the fight before that? It's been said quite a few times, Arlovski was winning that fight (up until the KO). Now, I know some people like to judge things purely by the result, but this is clearly a case where the beginning and the end of the fight were very different. Fedor was getting hurt and getting pushed back, then Arlovski made a mistake and Fedor threw his punch.

    Watch the fight again, up until the flying knee attempt, who was fighting with skill?
  4. ArrogantBastard is offline

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    Posted On:
    9/10/2009 8:40pm


     Style: BJJ

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    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    The point is you keep fabricating arguments against yourself as a means to prove your own point:

    1) Fedor's KO's were by chance
    2) Fedor's striking ability is low

    No one in this thread has made these statements but you. It's like you are arguing with yourself.


    Furthermore, you have just made two contradicting points. On one hand you still attempt to defend your Fedor analogy, which necessitates that he has a high KO rate. Now you are arguing that he has no striking ability.
  5. marcusdbrutus is offline
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    Posted On:
    9/10/2009 8:41pm


     Style: MT, Judo & BJJ

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    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    This needs YMAS now.
  6. selfcritical is offline

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    Posted On:
    9/10/2009 8:44pm


     Style: Pekiti, ARMA, other stuff

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    Quote Originally Posted by Conde Koma View Post
    Did you watch the fight before that? It's been said quite a few times, Arlovski was winning that fight (up until the KO). Now, I know some people like to judge things purely by the result, but this is clearly a case where the beginning and the end of the fight were very different. Fedor was getting hurt and getting pushed back, then Arlovski made a mistake and Fedor threw his punch.

    Watch the fight again, up until the flying knee attempt, who was fighting with skill?
    Watch it in slow motion. Fedor's defensive technique is pretty damn precise. He gets hit less than Lyoto Machida or Anderson Silva, for fucks sake.
  7. Conde Koma is offline
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    Posted On:
    9/10/2009 9:54pm

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    Quote Originally Posted by ArrogantBastard View Post
    The point is you keep fabricating arguments against yourself as a means to prove your own point:

    1) Fedor's KO's were by chance
    2) Fedor's striking ability is low

    No one in this thread has made these statements but you. It's like you are arguing with yourself.


    Furthermore, you have just made two contradicting points. On one hand you still attempt to defend your Fedor analogy, which necessitates that he has a high KO rate. Now you are arguing that he has no striking ability.
    The only premise I've made is that

    1) Fedor's striking ability is low (not non-existant). I presented Freddie Roach's opinion on this as evidence, which you may or may not have confidence in.
    2) Fedor's KO rate is higher than one would expect for someone with low striking abilities.

    My argument doesn't necessitate a high KO rate, it just necessitates that Fedor get KOs at a rate higher than a chance occurance.

    Am I missing anything to make my argument more clear?

    Also, if you watch his fights, you'll see that he most certainly doesn't get hit less than Machida or Silva.
  8. symphox is offline

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    Posted On:
    9/10/2009 10:25pm

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     Style: BJJ, Muay Thai

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    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    whoa, this convo went way else where, edit...
  9. G-Off is offline
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    Posted On:
    9/10/2009 10:43pm


     Style: Ronin wannabe

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    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    Quote Originally Posted by Conde Koma View Post
    The only premise I've made is that

    1) Fedor's striking ability is low (not non-existant). I presented Freddie Roach's opinion on this as evidence, which you may or may not have confidence in.
    2) Fedor's KO rate is higher than one would expect for someone with low striking abilities.

    My argument doesn't necessitate a high KO rate, it just necessitates that Fedor get KOs at a rate higher than a chance occurance.
    OY. Here we go.

    Quote Originally Posted by Conde Koma View Post
    Regardless of the number, 7 out of 32 is still not a small percentage. 25% is well above the 5% chance deviation. If his knockouts were by chance, we might expect to see one or two, but seven? I think this supports my analogy.
    Completely off base. Using 5% as the "chance deviation" is just irresponsible and is based on a flawed understanding of statistics. Continued after your next quote.

    Quote Originally Posted by Conde Koma View Post
    But it doesn't explain how Fedor gets KOs at all, when people with low striking ability should be expected to get 0-5% KOs, if only by chance.

    Therefore, if Fedor doesn't get KOs from luck, and he doesn't get them by skill, how does he get them? As I began with, I believe he gets them solely because of his aggression and power.
    Again, assuming a fighter will get 0-5% KOs by chance is wildly irresponsible. I'm bad at statistics, but I've at least taken a class or two on them. I think what you're doing is this:

    The formula for statistical significance is usually set at a level of p = .05 where if your data IS statistically significant, there is a less than 5% chance that the variation you're seeing is due purely to chance. In essence, it's saying there's a 95% (or greater) chance that you're seeing something due to an existant variable, rather than random luck.

    This does NOT mean that if 5% of a fighter's wins are KOs, that they are due to chance. You make a large number of faulty assumptions.

    1. Q. What percentage of KOs is reasonable to assume for an "unskilled" striker?

    A. We have NO GODDAMN IDEA. There are infinite variables at play. The number of fights involved changes the percentage. Quality and style of opposition will change whether a KO is "expected" or not. Skill level is largely subjective, so where do you set the bar for "low" striking ability to determine your expected percentage of KOs? Simply put, there's no way to quantify the expected number or percentage of KOs for a fighter, with regards to skill level (at least not with the data we have now).

    2. Q. How is skill in a particular area of combat reflected in methods of winning?

    A. Good fucking question, me. Dan Severn's lifetime percentage of submission victories: 60%. Shinya Aoki's? 57%. OBVIOUSLY Dan Severn is a better submission grappler than Shinya Aoki then. He has the advantage in raw numbers as well: 54 submission victories for Severn, and only 12 for Aoki.

    Please realize that saying 5% of Fedor's KOs are due to chance does not make it so.

    Quote Originally Posted by Conde Koma View Post
    Did you watch the fight before that? It's been said quite a few times, Arlovski was winning that fight (up until the KO). Now, I know some people like to judge things purely by the result, but this is clearly a case where the beginning and the end of the fight were very different. Fedor was getting hurt and getting pushed back, then Arlovski made a mistake and Fedor threw his punch.

    Watch the fight again, up until the flying knee attempt, who was fighting with skill?
    This is less true than you think. There is a reason for the statistic I link at the bottom of this post, Fedor's head movement is incredible. Watch the fight in slow motion: Arlovski barely lands any punches. True, Fedor didn't land many himself, but Andrei was hardly winning by barely missing Fedor's head a whole lot.

    Quote Originally Posted by Conde Koma View Post
    Also, if you watch his fights, you'll see that he most certainly doesn't get hit less than Machida or Silva.
    You are provably wrong. Read the second post:

    http://www.fightmetric.com/blog/2009_01_01_archive.html

    Quote Originally Posted by Fightmetric
    But it is interesting to note that Fedor and Machida come in #1 and #2 in terms of the hardest guys to hit in MMA history.
    Fedor's strikes absorbed per minute (in his MMA fights) statistic is .59, the lowest for any fighter in MMA history before Machida's dropped to .55 after UFC 98.
  10. Conde Koma is offline
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    Posted On:
    9/10/2009 11:03pm

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    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    Great site, thank you, Geoff (or is it not really Geoff?).

    Okay, I guess I didn't have hard enough data for those claims, I'm willing to admit when the numbers have me beat.

    I've got some questions about the site's numbers, though. It uses Hits Absorbed per Minute, but I feel like Hits Absorbed over Hits Attempted would be a better gauge of defensive skill, unless you want to consider pressuring a fighter into not attacking a defesive skill, which is a fair claim.
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