Common UFC Submissions: A Study By Numbers

**Jack Rusher** · Posted On: 7/01/2009 9:32pm

I had a chance to code up the graph traversal fighter rating method this afternoon. This algorithm, which uses win/loss adjusted for competition quality, selects this group as the top ten performing fighters in PRIDE:

I'm very pleased with this visualization because it shows their relative ratings (by size of blue disc) in the context of what happened between them. For example: Igor Vovchanchyn was a super tough guy with a great record who never won a match against a top ten fighter; Nog beat every top ten guy put in front of him except Fedor, who beat three without losing, while CroCop has the best career record in PRIDE, but just couldn't beat Nog or Fedor.

**1point2** · Posted On: 7/01/2009 9:36pm

That is by far the most interesting to my mind yet. Do you have the data to do the same for UFC?

**migo** · Posted On: 7/02/2009 12:51am

Originally Posted by GHemmer

Never realize how many times the rear naked choke has been used, i thought the guillotine would be the most used for sure.

It's by finishes, not by attempts.

**migo** · Posted On: 7/02/2009 12:58am

Originally Posted by Jack Rusher

The results indicated that my time would be most productively spent developing the armbar, RNC, kimura and guillotine. This seems to be just as true looking at the larger data sets, no matter the promotion.

You'd want to develop a wider set of techniques than just the top finishes, as a lot of them blend in to each other and a lot of times a submission comes from the 2nd or 3rd in a chain. For instance Armbar, Triangle, Omoplata and Kimura blend really well - the Omoplata is a very low percentage finish but helps immensely with making the others work and also in recovering from having the other 3 submissions escaped from.

**Valiss** · Posted On: 7/02/2009 1:16am

Nice work. I've never even heard "D'arce" before.

**Jack Rusher** · Posted On: 7/02/2009 7:18am

Originally Posted by 1point2

That is by far the most interesting to my mind yet. Do you have the data to do the same for UFC?

I do. I'll need to fine tune it a bit as the UFC graph is more fragmented (more weight classes means more unconnected clusters). Speaking of weight classes, the far-and-away dominant PRIDE lightweight was Takinori Gomi.

Originally Posted by migo

You'd want to develop a wider set of techniques [...] For instance Armbar, Triangle, Omoplata and Kimura blend really well - the Omoplata is a very low percentage finish

When sub-grappling I use this chain quite a bit, and -- oddly enough -- land more omoplatas than triangles, but under MMA rules I mostly use a GnP-based top game until my opponent gives up a high-percentage sub.

**Jack Rusher** · Posted On: 7/02/2009 10:37am

I found a typo in the code that caused a minor ranking bug in the UFC graph. The same bug invalidates the previous PRIDE rankings. A corrected version is here:

RANKINGS

1. Fedor Emelianenko
2. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
3. Mirko Filipovic
4. Ricardo Arona
5. Wanderlei Silva
6. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
7. Mark Hunt
8. Mauricio Rua
9. Dan Henderson
10. Mark Coleman

NOTES

Fedor is an outlier, well above everyone else. There are also two statistical clusters: Nog scored slightly ahead of CroCop, but they're grouped together significantly above the rest of the top ten. Henderson and Coleman are nearly tied for the bottom slot with Rua only slightly ahead of them.

I was initially surprised Josh Barnett didn't make this list, but his PRIDE career was actually fairly lackluster aside from a split decision victory over Big Nog that was avenged in their next fight.

**Jack Rusher** · Posted On: 7/02/2009 10:49am

Originally Posted by 1point2

That is by far the most interesting to my mind yet. Do you have the data to do the same for UFC?

Here are the top performing fighters in UFC history according to this algorithm:

RANKING

1. Georges St. Pierre
2. Randy Couture
3. Anderson Silva
4. Chuck Liddell
5. Keith Jardine
6. Rich Franklin
7. Yushin Okami
8. Rashad Evans
9. Frankie Edgar
10. Lyoto Machida
11. Diego Sanchez

NOTES

GSP's record is so good that he stands alone among welterweights.

Frankie Edgar deserves a title shot, and barring that it would be great to see him fight Diego Sanchez.

The current lightweight and heavyweight title holders don't make the all-time top ten.

Keith Jardine is underrated.

If I extend this graph to include the top 25 it becomes obvious that Rich Franklin is to Anderson Silva as Big Nog is to Fedor, but we all knew that already.

**migo** · Posted On: 7/02/2009 7:08pm

Could you do UFC by weight class?

**Jack Rusher** · Posted On: 7/02/2009 7:22pm

Originally Posted by migo

Could you do UFC by weight class?

Man, I'd love to do that. The problem is that the database doesn't have that information. The first 11 UFCs were open weight, then a light/heavy split until UFC 28, then the modern weights after UFC 31, so the pre-31 events would need to be annotated differently, plus many fighters have competed in more than one weight class, so someone would have to add weight class data for each fight in the spreadsheet.

If some of you guys would be willing to split up the task -- maybe 100 fights each for 12 guys or something -- we could do it, but I'm not up to doing all 1200 myself.