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  1. J_Treez is offline

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    Posted On:
    1/24/2009 10:09am


     Style: Freestyle

    --
    Hell yeah! Hell no!

    MMA Handicapping and Betting Workshop

    Alright Lampa, Frenzal, even cuddly little Fighting Ceph, I'm making this thread for two purposes. First, to explain and discuss the MMA handicapping system I've been working on and refine it into a workable and as accurate as possible method of evaluating fighters and fights. Secondly, I'd like to hear how you do things. If you have a better way of handicapping MMA, I want to learn it. All I ultimately care about is finding what works and using it.

    I've searched all over the place for literature on how to handicap MMA, and there's not a lot of usable info out there. I've bet football, baseball, and boxing for the past few years with moderate success, and after I rekindled my interest in MMA about a year ago I decided to try and come up with a system to analyze it.

    I've only been working on this a few months, so there's definitely a TON of work and refinement left to do. Also, there's always the chance it won't work at all, and that's cool too.

    Here's the basics of what I'm seeking to do:

    (1) Analyze a fighters record and strength of opposition to assign them a "Power Ranking" as many football bettors do. Power rankings are a number between 1 and 10 in this system.

    (2) Use power rankings to see how fighters rate against each other, or using a chart I made, compare Power Rankings and get a basic approximation off what the moneyline (odds) for an upcoming fight should be.

    POWER RANKINGS

    As an example of what I've been fooling with, here's how I came up with Mark Coleman's power ranking before his recent fight with Shogun Rua:

    (1) First I look at a fighter's last 10 fights. The idea there is that hopefully 10 fights is a good sample size to indicate how a fighter is doing presently. ie I'd rather fight Royce Gracie now than in 1993. I'd get my arm torn off either way, but I hope you get the idea. Also, it's an easily managable number of fights to work with, and being based on the number ten, the math is easy.

    So, over his last 10, Coleman was 6 and 4, or a .600 win %.

    (2) Strength of opposition. Who has he been fighting? A bunch of cans, or Fedor? Well, in this case, Fedor, twice. I now figure up what Coleman's last 10 opponents win percentages were before each fight. Coleman's resume looks like this:

    1- Fedor (24-1) .960
    2- Shogun (12-1) .923
    3- M. Voorn (13-5-1) .684
    4- Crocop (14-2-2) .778
    5- Fedor (16-1) .941
    6- D.Frye (15-2) .882
    7- Minotauro (12-1-1) .857
    8- A.Goes (5-1-2) .625
    9- Vovchanchyn (33-1-1) .943
    10- K. Fujita (4-0) 1.000
    ------------------------------------
    Average Win %: .860

    NOTE: Do I consider Fujita>Fedor because of his 1.000 win %? **** no, I'm not retarded (the tests said borderline, anyhow), but at the present I don't have a better way to quantify a fighter with less than 10 fights.

    (3) Power Rank calculation: We now take Coleman's win % (.600) and add it to his Strength of Opposition (.860). Add together, and divide by 2.

    .600
    .860
    ------
    1.46

    Divide that by 2 and you have an average of .730.
    Move the decimal one place to the right and you have 7.3. There's Coleman's basic power rating.

    Using the same basic method, I came up with a 7.7 power ranking for Shogun.

    To come up with projected odds, I consult a chart I made, noting the difference in power rankings. In this case, 0.4. According to my chart (to be posted soon), Rua should be a -180 or so favorite. After a bookie got hold of these odds and put a "forty cent" line on it, the final odds would look something like
    Shogun -200
    Coleman +160

    Ok, that's the basics. There's still a lot of work to do, of course, but a lot of the fights I've been looking at have very similar odds to what this basic method comes up with, so I don't think I'm entirely off base. I still need to figure out the effect of styles vs. styles on odds and a few other things I'm sure you all will point out. I'm looking forward to discussions, questions, answers, and of course being called a stupid fucking n00b bastard. I'll post my Odds conversion Chart later today. I hope I was as concise as possible and made sense.
    Last edited by J_Treez; 1/24/2009 10:18am at .
  2. J_Treez is offline

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    Posted On:
    1/24/2009 10:15am


     Style: Freestyle

    --
    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    My current Power Rankings to Odds conversion chart. Numbers in parentheses indicate the difference between a favorite and underdogs power ranking.

    even (0)
    -110
    -120 (.1)
    -130
    -140 (.2)
    -150
    -160 (.3)
    -170
    -180 (.4)
    -190
    -200 (.5)
    -210
    -220 (.6)
    -230
    -240 (.7)
    -250
    -260 (.8)
    -270
    -280 (.9)
    -290
    -300 (1)

    From our previous example Shougun is a 7.7, and Coleman is a 7.3.

    7.7
    -7.3
    -----
    0.4

    Look at .4 on the chart, and you have a basic line of Shogun -180.
  3. Lampa is offline
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    Posted On:
    1/24/2009 3:09pm

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     New York MMA Examiner Style: magic FUCKING powers!

    --
    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    Well, the system actually seems fairly solid for what factors are easily measured mathematically. While I was the one who pointed out the whole "style versus style" anomaly I can't think of a way off the top of my head to reliably apply that to the results.

    I have an idea, off the top of my head right now so it might be tragically flawed, of basically how to modify this. Still take the last ten fights. Take all the wins from that sample for one fighter and look at the method by which he won. Let's say that fighter A won seven of his last ten and five of them were by submission. So, .5 by submission.

    Then take all the losses from the other fighter out of the last ten. Let's say fighter B lost 4 out of his last 10, 3 by submission. So, .3 by submission as a vulnerability.

    Take the method strengths and the method weaknesses, add them together and divide by 2. Then that number becomes a modifier to the power rating of each fighter by some math I have not devised yet. ****, I need to get some food in me before I dig myself any deeper with this. I'll be back after lunch to see if I came up with anything better than this circular crap.

    P.S. Anyone ever notice how fucking dorky handicapping is? I mean, like other dorky **** I'll still do it and enjoy it, but...
  4. M.C. is offline
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    This is all I do: girls, photography and BJJ...

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    Posted On:
    1/24/2009 3:15pm

    Join us... or die
     Style: KeyboardHero/CameraJutsu

    --
    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    1- Fedor (24-1) .960
    2- Shogun (12-1) .923
    3- M. Voorn (13-5-1) .684
    4- Crocop (14-2-2) .778
    5- Fedor (16-1) .941
    6- D.Frye (15-2) .882
    7- Minotauro (12-1-1) .857
    8- A.Goes (5-1-2) .625
    9- Vovchanchyn (33-1-1) .943
    10- K. Fujita (4-0) 1.000
    I didn't bother reading the entire thing since I never bet unless I am 100% I win and then it isn't really betting.
    Anyway, why you have fedor listed twice? That is odd.
    Sometimes you lose and sometimes the other guy wins.

    At this point I don't owe anybody an explenation.

    Schools I trained at:
    Lotus Club Cetepe Liberdade Sao Paulo
    Renzo Gracie NYC
    New York Combat Sambo
  5. The Fake Macoy is offline

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    Posted On:
    1/24/2009 4:00pm


     Style: Judo

    --
    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    Quote Originally Posted by M.C.
    I didn't bother reading the entire thing since I never bet unless I am 100% I win and then it isn't really betting.
    Anyway, why you have fedor listed twice? That is odd.
    Because he fought Fedor twice, at different points in thier careers. If you fight someone let's say, when they're 0-2, then fight them again when they're 7-2, it's a big enough difference that you'd have to account for changes. From what I understand of his system, it's a way to take into account how fighters change over time.
  6. J_Treez is offline

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    Posted On:
    1/24/2009 6:43pm


     Style: Freestyle

    --
    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    Quote Originally Posted by Lampa
    While I was the one who pointed out the whole "style versus style" anomaly I can't think of a way off the top of my head to reliably apply that to the results.

    I have an idea, off the top of my head right now so it might be tragically flawed, of basically how to modify this. Still take the last ten fights. Take all the wins from that sample for one fighter and look at the method by which he won. Let's say that fighter A won seven of his last ten and five of them were by submission. So, .5 by submission.

    Then take all the losses from the other fighter out of the last ten. Let's say fighter B lost 4 out of his last 10, 3 by submission. So, .3 by submission as a vulnerability.

    Take the method strengths and the method weaknesses, add them together and divide by 2. Then that number becomes a modifier to the power rating of each fighter by some math I have not devised yet. ****, I need to get some food in me before I dig myself any deeper with this. I'll be back after lunch to see if I came up with anything better than this circular crap.

    P.S. Anyone ever notice how fucking dorky handicapping is? I mean, like other dorky **** I'll still do it and enjoy it, but...
    Yeah, I just wrote a whole article about how I spend my time quantifying the abilities of guys with names like "The Hammer" and "Shogun". I HAVE noticed how dorky handicapping is.

    I forgot to mention that I also make a chart for each fighter that shows their win-loss record, and then breaks down how they won or lost each fight. For example, Mark Coleman's chart is

    Wins: 6 KO: 3 (50%) Submission: 2 (33%) Decision 1 (17%)
    Losses 4 KO: 1 (25%) Submission: 3 (75%) Decision: 0

    Maybe that'll help in trying to figure out a way to make "modifiers" to our basic odds based on the whole "style vs. style" thing.
    Last edited by J_Treez; 1/24/2009 6:46pm at .
  7. meataxe is offline
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    Posted On:
    1/24/2009 7:04pm


     Style: Wu style tcc+bjj

    --
    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    The numbers are a start, but for MMA you really need to work out some scenarios. EG. 'A' is a BJJ blackbelt, 'B' is a top-tier wrestler. Both are decent strikers, but not top-tier. 'A' has one-punch knockout power, 'B' doesn't but is a bit more technical in his striking.

    I could see several scenarios off the top of my head:

    1. 'B' overpowers 'A' and manages to keep on top to grind out a decision win.

    2. As above, but 'A' snags a submission win after two or three rounds.

    3. 'A' wants to take the fight to the ground, but 'B' uses wrestling ability to keep on the feet. The fight stays mostly standing, and in between clinching on the fence 'B' gets more accurate punches in and avoids major damage for a decision win.

    4. As above, but 'A' gets a good shot in for a KO.


    Similarly, if 'A' has a good W/L ratio and power rating against strikers, but 'B' is the first top-tier wrestler he has faced, then you have to tweak things a little.

    I think the numbers can get you so far, from there you have to apply a bit of voodoo.
    Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices.
    - Voltaire
  8. Frenzal is offline

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    Posted On:
    1/26/2009 7:35pm


     

    --
    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    Hmmm, don't think i have anything really constructive to add...

    You use almost exactly the same system a friend of mine devised for rugby.
    He eventaully had spread sheets and stuff going... but i think if you try and account for every variable at some point your assumptions out weigh the hard evidence you're using and your data becomes well, not data but just as much a geuss as the next persons.
  9. Fighting Cephalopod is offline
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    Submitting 1d6 Investigators per round

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    Posted On:
    1/26/2009 11:17pm

    supporting member
     Style: ZHOO ZHITSU

    --
    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    Quote Originally Posted by J_Treez
    Alright Lampa, Frenzal, even cuddly little Fighting Ceph, I'm making this thread for two purposes. First, to explain and discuss the MMA handicapping system I've been working on and refine it into a workable and as accurate as possible method of evaluating fighters and fights. Secondly, I'd like to hear how you do things.
    I compare the strengths of both fighters, then watch their previous fights and see how those strengths have stacked up against other fighters with similar skillsets or levels of ability to the person they're supposed to be fighting.

    Also, there's always the chance it won't work at all, and that's cool too.
    Given that your system would assign equal "power ranking" weight to having beaten BJ Penn and Shannon Ritch (both 7-3 in their last 10 bouts), I'm betting on "won't work at all".
    Undisputed KING OF ASSHOLES.
  10. Frenzal is offline

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    Posted On:
    1/27/2009 12:06am


     

    --
    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    Quote Originally Posted by Fighting Cephalopod
    Given that your system would assign equal "power ranking" weight to having beaten BJ Penn and Shannon Ritch (both 7-3 in their last 10 bouts), I'm betting on "won't work at all".
    Are you sure?

    Do you bet alot of money on fights?

    I don't, but my friends system which is similar worked great for the last half of the season. He went a layer deeper and used strength of oppositions opposition for the first half of the season but ran into big problems accounting for offseason moves, preseason games etc... hmmm, this isn't a league so that isn't a problem, but i think for fighters with more than half a dozen bouts he should be fine. Except, that is, for the odd circumstace like the one you mentioned or the one coming up with with Machida and Silva where one has fought world class opposition with a good record lately and another hs fought mediocre competition with a similar record in the same time frame.

    And that **** youve just gotta know and take into account outside of the system.. honestly how would you quantify mma matchups?
    Last edited by Frenzal; 1/27/2009 12:11am at .
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