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  1. Gbemi is offline

    Registered Member

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    Brooklyn, New York
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    Posted On:
    4/14/2009 3:56pm


     Style: BJJ (faixa branca)

    --
    Hell yeah! Hell no!

    Statistics Thread: Street Vs. Sport

    The last Street Vs. Sport thread inspired me to fire up my keyboard and try to make a real thread worthy of MABS. I will however put this in YMAS, to be moved if mods deem appropriate as this is not an investigation on any individual.

    The premise of this thread is to gauge the economy and feasibility of training exclusively for the streets. I will offer the statistics for my county, Brooklyn, New York. Hopefully, others will do the same (they can get stats by contacting their states Department of Criminal Justice services) and we can make something comprehensive. Lets gauge the real liklihood and probablity of getting into a fight, and what kind of fight we will get in.

    The Caveats:
    This stats do not provide details of specific situations (e.g. was alcohol involved?, who started).

    Nor does it provide info of fights not reported to police.

    Also, unfortunately, there is no distinction between 3rd degree assault with respects to gender (fist fights vs. domestic violence, which is probably more prevelant than we'd like to admit).

    Some of these penal codes are so broad that they could mean close to anything. For example, Assault in the 2nd Degree could mean assault with a weapon, or, impeding a police officer or fireman from doing their job. Take with a pinch of salt.

    I did not bother with vehicular assault, or any other crime that does not translate into the realm of what we commonly refer to as 'fighting' and 'self defense' here on Bullshido.net.

    Also, the ages of the victims are not known. This is relevant as I suspect a sizable number of victims will be women and elderly being attacked and/or robbed by younger, stronger men. These clearly would not fall under your standard, "i need to learn MA do defend myself" situations.
    Finally, when calculating percentages, I calculated for people 11yrs old and above (when you look at that way the stats are laid out, you'll understand), which lowers the calculated population of Brooklyn to 2,191,233. Everything is based on 2006 stats.

    As always, any corrections to my methodology are welcome.

    Assault, no weapon (most common MA train for)
    12,432 or .0049% of population
    Assault 2nd degree (possibly a weapon)
    3260 or .001487% of population
    Assault 1st degree (injury caused by weapon
    380 or .000173% of population
    Gang Assault 1st and 2nd combined (multiple opponents)
    174 or .000079% of population
    Robbery (no weapon)
    2312 or .00105 % of population
    Robbery (weapon other than firearm)
    674 or .000307 % of population
    Robbery with firearm
    391 or .000178 % of population

    Menacing (threatening to hurt someone, possibly showing a weapon, but not actually doing anything)
    1644 or .000750 % of population


    Total:
    All of these events combined (most common referred to in MA discussion) affect .0097% of Brooklyn's population. The other 99.99 percent are not (directly) affected by these things

    I'd like to take this opportunity to sincerely thank the NYPD for helping sustain a civilized society.
    http://ypdcrime.com/penal.law/article120.htm

    I forgot how to upload attachments. If one of you would be so kind as to remind me, I will upload the stats emailed me directly form the department of Justice.
  2. Gbemi is offline

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    Posted On:
    4/14/2009 4:01pm


     Style: BJJ (faixa branca)

    --
    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    Not wanting to put too much commentary in the first post, I will only add this.
    Looking at actual numbers, it would seem awefully inefficient to train for many years for an event that has only .001 chance of happening to me.

    I had already been convinced of the superiority of sport training, but these numbers actually blew my mind. Of course, the numbers would have been different if this were the 1970's(a bad decade for new York), but its not.
  3. Ming Loyalist is offline
    Ming Loyalist's Avatar

    solves problems with violence

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    Posted On:
    4/14/2009 4:04pm

    supporting member
     Style: Judo, Hung Family Boxing

    --
    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    it would be interesting to see the statistics by precinct rather than all of brooklyn.

    i'm not too worried about getting jumped in brooklyn heights, but over by the marcy projects i'm not so sure.
    "Face punches are an essential character building part of a martial art. You don't truly love your children unless you allow them to get punched in the face." - chi-conspiricy
    "When I was a little boy, I had a sailor suit, but it didn't mean I was in the Navy." - Mtripp on the subject of a 5 year old karate black belt
    "Without actual qualifications to be a Zen teacher, your instructor is just another roundeye raping Asian culture for a buck." - Errant108
    "Seriously, who gives a **** what you or Errant think? You're Asian males, everyone just ignores you, unless you're in a krotty movie." - new2bjj
  4. Kantroce is offline

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    Posted On:
    4/14/2009 4:06pm


     Style: We'll see

    --
    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    Quote Originally Posted by Gbemi View Post
    The last Street Vs. Sport thread inspired me to fire up my keyboard and try to make a real thread worthy of MABS. I will however put this in YMAS, to be moved if mods deem appropriate as this is not an investigation on any individual.

    The premise of this thread is to gauge the economy and feasibility of training exclusively for the streets. I will offer the statistics for my county, Brooklyn, New York. Hopefully, others will do the same (they can get stats by contacting their states Department of Criminal Justice services) and we can make something comprehensive. Lets gauge the real liklihood and probablity of getting into a fight, and what kind of fight we will get in.

    The Caveats:
    This stats do not provide details of specific situations (e.g. was alcohol involved?, who started).

    Nor does it provide info of fights not reported to police.

    Also, unfortunately, there is no distinction between 3rd degree assault with respects to gender (fist fights vs. domestic violence, which is probably more prevelant than we'd like to admit).

    Some of these penal codes are so broad that they could mean close to anything. For example, Assault in the 2nd Degree could mean assault with a weapon, or, impeding a police officer or fireman from doing their job. Take with a pinch of salt.

    I did not bother with vehicular assault, or any other crime that does not translate into the realm of what we commonly refer to as 'fighting' and 'self defense' here on Bullshido.net.

    Also, the ages of the victims are not known. This is relevant as I suspect a sizable number of victims will be women and elderly being attacked and/or robbed by younger, stronger men. These clearly would not fall under your standard, "i need to learn MA do defend myself" situations.
    Finally, when calculating percentages, I calculated for people 11yrs old and above (when you look at that way the stats are laid out, you'll understand), which lowers the calculated population of Brooklyn to 2,191,233. Everything is based on 2006 stats.

    As always, any corrections to my methodology are welcome.

    Assault, no weapon (most common MA train for)
    12,432 or .0049% of population
    Assault 2nd degree (possibly a weapon)
    3260 or .001487% of population

    Assault 1st degree (injury caused by weapon
    380 or .000173% of population
    Gang Assault 1st and 2nd combined (multiple opponents)
    174 or .000079% of population
    Robbery (no weapon)
    2312 or .00105 % of population
    Robbery (weapon other than firearm)
    674 or .000307 % of population
    Robbery with firearm
    391 or .000178 % of population

    Menacing (threatening to hurt someone, possibly showing a weapon, but not actually doing anything)
    1644 or .000750 % of population


    Total:
    All of these events combined (most common referred to in MA discussion) affect .0097% of Brooklyn's population. The other 99.99 percent are not (directly) affected by these things

    I'd like to take this opportunity to sincerely thank the NYPD for helping sustain a civilized society.
    http://ypdcrime.com/penal.law/article120.htm

    I forgot how to upload attachments. If one of you would be so kind as to remind me, I will upload the stats emailed me directly form the department of Justice.
    Just waiting for Jim Jude to pile in here with his teh deadly Silat to refute those numbers.
  5. Gbemi is offline

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    Posted On:
    4/15/2009 8:39am


     Style: BJJ (faixa branca)

    --
    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    Quote Originally Posted by Ming Loyalist View Post
    it would be interesting to see the statistics by precinct rather than all of brooklyn.

    i'm not too worried about getting jumped in brooklyn heights, but over by the marcy projects i'm not so sure.


    Ming has made Gbemi sad to know his neighborhood haz the d43dly str33ts. But you are right, the reason I started MA and carrying a fold out knife is precisely b/c I almost got jumped (can you imagine a grown man getting jumped? It sounds almost too 'high-school' to be true). I got out of it by holding my ground, but not being a tough guy (and a whole lot of luck)

    the jurisdiction is the 79th precinct.

    The comp-stats available online are not as detailed as what I received from the Dept. of justice. Also, they don't include 2006, so i'll use the 2008 numbers. Also, I'm having trouble finding population numbers for individual neighborhoods. Also note that comp-stats report complaints while dept of justice I believe uses a different criteria. Either way, here are the stats

    Bed-Stuy
    Robbery
    552

    Felony Assault
    390

    http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloa...s/cs079pct.pdf


    Brooklyn Heights

    Robbery
    246

    Felony Assault
    149
    http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloa...s/cs084pct.pdf

    So, yup, you're twice as likely to get jacked in the neighborhood of Marcy Projects than Brooklyn heights.

    However, also note that crime has been on a steady decline in both neighborhoods.
  6. Beatdown Richie is offline
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    game dog

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    Munich, Germany
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    Posted On:
    4/15/2009 8:53am

    supporting member
     Style: BJJ

    --
    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    Ahem.

    You are aware that "%" means "divided by hundred" and that you need to multiply the ratio (cases/population) by 100 to get the percentage? My calculator tells me that 12,432/2,191,233 = 0.56%, or more than one in 200. Which probably doesn't change the conclusion that getting beat up on a daily basis in training out of fear of an assault on the street is not a very good idea... but still, you need to get your numbers at least into the right order of magnitude, otherwise the exercise is pointless.
    There are no wrong threats, only wrong answers. (Strategy game truism)
  7. Gbemi is offline

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    Posted On:
    4/15/2009 9:01am


     Style: BJJ (faixa branca)

    --
    Hell yeah! Hell no!

    You CAN fix stupid

    Quote Originally Posted by Beatdown Richie View Post
    Ahem.

    You are aware that "%" means "divided by hundred" and that you need to multiply the ratio (cases/population) by 100 to get the percentage? My calculator tells me that 12,432/2,191,233 = 0.56%, or more than one in 200. Which probably doesn't change the conclusion that getting beat up on a daily basis in training out of fear of an assault on the street is not a very good idea... but still, you need to get your numbers at least into the right order of magnitude, otherwise the exercise is pointless.

    My apologies.

    Its been years since I did such calculations, and its very possible I forgot some of the basics. I will redo them all, edit the OP with comment.

    thanks

    Edit: Numbers corrections

    Assault, no weapon (most common MA train for)
    12,432 or .567% of population
    Assault 2nd degree (possibly a weapon)
    3260 or .1487% of population
    Assault 1st degree (injury caused by weapon
    380 or .0173% of population
    Gang Assault 1st and 2nd combined (multiple opponents)
    174 or .0079% of population
    Robbery (no weapon)
    2312 or .105 % of population
    Robbery (weapon other than firearm)
    674 or .0307 % of population
    Robbery with firearm
    391 or .0178 % of population

    Menacing (threatening to hurt someone, possibly showing a weapon, but not actually doing anything)
    1644 or .0750 % of population

    Total:
    All of these events combined (most common referred to in MA discussion) affect .97% of Brooklyn's population. The other 99.13 percent are not (directly) affected by these things

    -Gbemi :5dunce:
    Last edited by Gbemi; 4/15/2009 9:30am at . Reason: I didn't multipy by 100
  8. Permalost is offline
    Permalost's Avatar

    pro nonsense self defense

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    San Diego
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    Posted On:
    4/15/2009 10:53am

    supporting member
     Style: FMA, dumbek, Indian clubs

    --
    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    Black Belt did kind of an interesting project kinda like this a while bacK:
    http://www.blackbeltmag.com/archives/144
  9. krasus is offline

    Featherweight

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    Posted On:
    4/16/2009 2:51am

    Bullshido Newbie
     

    --
    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    Note, that the starts are for one year.

    Just throwing in some numbers; if you lived to be 60, that would give you a just over a 50\50 chance of being involved.

    I was always told by my old man, "knowing how to fight is something you may only need once or twice in your life, but they are the times you really need to know how to fight".

    Also, you should consider that a lot of fights will go unreported (bar fights etc) and the methods of collecting stats. Stats are easily manipulated....
  10. Jim_Jude is offline
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    Shime Waza Test Dummy

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    Posted On:
    4/16/2009 3:37am

    Join us... or die
     Style: StrikeyGrappling & WW2-fu

    --
    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    Beatdown Richie, you beat me to it.

    Gbemi: have you bothered to run any numbers on any towns beside NYC that don't have such draconian weapons laws? Thanks.
    Last edited by Jim_Jude; 4/16/2009 3:40am at .
    "Judo is a study of techniques with which you may kill if you wish to kill, injure if you wish to injure, subdue if you wish to subdue, and, when attacked, defend yourself" - Jigoro Kano (1889)
    ***Was this quote "taken out of context"?***

    "The judoist has no time to allow himself a margin for error, especially in a situation upon which his or another person's very life depends...."
    ~ The Secret of Judo (Jiichi Watanabe & Lindy Avakian), p.19

    "Hope is not a method... nor is enthusiasm."
    ~ Brigadier General Gordon Toney
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