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  1. Samfoo is offline
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    Knee + Head = Black Eye * 2

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    Posted On:
    8/28/2007 4:42pm

    supporting member
     Style: Judo, BJJ

    --
    Hell yeah! Hell no!

    Submissions in MMA

    (note: I realize this is tenuously connected to grappling at best, but the graph is directly related to jiu jitsu in NHB and I think it's interested enough to post here. If it should be moved to iCompete, consider this my pre-emptive apology)

    Quick summary: I wrote a program to read the Sherdog fight finder database, and saved it in a database locally. Then I could perform some interesting analyses of a vast amount of MMA data.

    It seems to me like finishing a fight by submission and by knockout are converging overtime. This does seem to confirm the notion that less fights (percentage-wise) are ending in submission in recent years. Please discuss, and let me know if you have any suggestions for other data you'd like.

    Anyway, without further ado, attached is an example of the data I've collected:



    As a disclaimer, I must say that this data is not likely to be 100% accurate. the data in the Sherdog database is not the most consistent, and it's difficult to get solid statistics out of it.
    Quote Originally Posted by Osiris
    Imagine if track was run like the martial arts community. While the winning teams would just sprint down the field, smoking the competition, you'd have a bunch of losers running around explaining how they can skip down the track just as fast. Never mind that it doesn't fucking work. Oh no, they're too fast for track. They run on the STREET.
  2. Backdraft is offline

    Senior Member

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    Posted On:
    8/28/2007 4:49pm


     Style: Shootfighting

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    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    Do you have any theory or idea that would explain this tendency? (Not sure I spelled that right.)
  3. pauli is offline

    i keep tryin to spar, but nothin happens!

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    Posted On:
    8/28/2007 5:09pm

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     Style: karate / bjj

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    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    As a disclaimer, I must say that this data is not likely to be 100% accurate. the data in the Sherdog database is not the most consistent, and it's difficult to get solid statistics out of it.
    yeah, that's the thing. it's hard to get good results from stuff like "submission (tapout due to strikes)" and "submission (fighter was completely fucking clueless)." the early ufcs were full of such things.

    hell, how do you classify things like nate vs manny?
  4. Samfoo is offline
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    Knee + Head = Black Eye * 2

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    Posted On:
    8/28/2007 5:16pm

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     Style: Judo, BJJ

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    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    Quote Originally Posted by pauli
    yeah, that's the thing. it's hard to get good results from stuff like "submission (tapout due to strikes)" and "submission (fighter was completely fucking clueless)." the early ufcs were full of such things.

    hell, how do you classify things like nate vs manny?
    Correct. There is some degree of error involved, but the real world isn't perfect. Trends will hopefully be noticeable regardless. As a side note, submission due to stikes is the fifth (or so) most common submission.

    The actual numbers are:

    ['203', 'Punches']
    ['1671', 'Strikes']

    Out of '16824' total recorded submission results.
    Quote Originally Posted by Osiris
    Imagine if track was run like the martial arts community. While the winning teams would just sprint down the field, smoking the competition, you'd have a bunch of losers running around explaining how they can skip down the track just as fast. Never mind that it doesn't fucking work. Oh no, they're too fast for track. They run on the STREET.
  5. maurice is offline

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    Posted On:
    8/28/2007 5:26pm


     Style: Mo-jitsu

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    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    It probably has something to do with the fact that the average fighter is becoming increasingly more well-rounded. Guys who are primarily strikers or GNP wrestlers have gotten better at sub-defense. Strikers have gotten better at take-down defense. Grapplers have gotten better at knocking people out.
  6. Deadmeat is offline
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    Senior Member

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    Posted On:
    8/28/2007 5:37pm


     Style: Mixed Martial Arts

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    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    I was actually discussing this same topic with a couple of guys I train with. It was actually predicted a long time ago, that eventually strikers would begin to assert more dominance over MMA as grappling became less of an unknown quantity, and particularly as the strikers learned to smother take-down attempts. Also, the wrestlers picking up strikes was a foregone conclusion.

    Good work on the data collection mate.
  7. Roidie McDouchebag is offline
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    Injury Waiting To Happen

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    Posted On:
    8/28/2007 6:03pm

    supporting member
     Style: Snatch Wrestling

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    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    The expansion of TKOs has had a significant impact, IMO. Guys used to need to tap out or REALLY be out.
  8. datdamnmachine is offline
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    Jiu Jitsu - Sometimes passing just isn't an option.

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    Posted On:
    8/28/2007 6:06pm

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     Style: BJJ, Unauthorized Judo

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    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    Quote Originally Posted by Deadmeat
    I was actually discussing this same topic with a couple of guys I train with. It was actually predicted a long time ago, that eventually strikers would begin to assert more dominance over MMA as grappling became less of an unknown quantity, and particularly as the strikers learned to smother take-down attempts. Also, the wrestlers picking up strikes was a foregone conclusion.

    Good work on the data collection mate.
    Good point. It shows a trend of strikers becoming more adept at the MMA game and also grapplers showing the fruits of their striking training. The thing is, if you look at recent events and further into the future, you will say the reverse happening. Grapplers are becoming more adept at their takedowns with improved wrestling (and the smart ones are learning Judo using Greco hooks...don't sleep on it, or you will be a victim of it) and also becoming very hyper with their grappling. Grapplers in the beginning were just waiting for an opening so they could get a sub. With more brutal ground and pound methods being employed, grapplers are now using a more active guard (for the most part, some still sit on their back trying to throw up a random triangle or armbar) trying to throw up as many submission attempts as possible to set up the sub or sweep (see the Huerta vs Crane fight for an example of this).

    I also think that although the Chuck Liddell sprawl and brawl mentality is still there, people are realizing that only a few people can pull that off and if you spend too much time working on that, you won't have anything to fall back on (the difference between an Anderson Silva who likes to stand and trade but can deal with things if off his back, vs a Chuck style fighter who just wants to stand back up and strike but puts himself in a bad situation trying that all the time; see Jason Von Flue vs Luke Stewart for an example).

    I think the stats will move back and forth because of these things. Everyone will claim to be well rounded but everyone will still have a style that can be exploited.
  9. WestonE123 is offline

    Featherweight

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    Posted On:
    8/28/2007 9:05pm

    Bullshido Newbie
     Style: Brazillian Jiujitsu

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    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    Oh man nice work!! I don't get to see REAL stats very often anymore (real world).

    Good research on a much discussed (read:speculated) topic.
  10. MEGALEF is offline

    Still digging on James Brown

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    Posted On:
    8/29/2007 1:45am


     Style: BJJ & Judo (1k)

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    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    Back in early 90's the ratios don't add up even halfway to 1.0. What did the rest of all those fights end with?

    Or is it just that Sherdog doesn't list win methods from back then?
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