Is BJJ just a fad?

[Dochter]

Again:

I really am curious about where I said "go take a Kosen judo class". I said they will go take something else

And this is completely baseless. Which brings us back to what it all really comes down to, and what you've never really addressed:

Forseti, your argument rests on the prediction that once people realize that bjj came from kosen 100 years ago they will move from bjj to [something else, like judo] training. There is no evidence of that happening and there is no support for the argument that it is the unawareness that prompted the popularity. In short you pulled your argument out of your ass and it is baseless.

... and ...

I think that if those that aren't in the know, knew how strong this connection were, they would become much more indifferent to BJJ than they are. That is why I think BJJ is a fad.

You have unsupported assumptions that have lead to an unsupported prediction. Your model is flawed.

Your assumptions are unsupported and flawed and so, therefore, is your prediction.

[Forseti]

Actually whateverinitial popularity bjj had, had nothing to do with people thinking the gracie's invented it. Rather it had to do with the fact that all these superduper karate blackbelts got their asses kicked.

Like I said your assumptions are flawed.

You don't think that if they called it Gracie Judo and Brazillian Judo or even just Kosen Judo a lot of the popularity of BJJ would have diffused to judo? That people would have imagined that Kodokan was the same or not really known that there were two different kinds of judo? And so on....

Sure people would start saying "But, what the Gracies do is completely different from Kodokan Judo." And people would say how the Gracie school is uniquely fight oriented in their training methodology and philosophy. But, it just wouldn't all come off the same to the newcomer.

[HAPKO3]

What is this ignorant **** talking about?

[Forseti]

Again:


Your assumptions are flawed and so, therefore, is your prediction.

Show me where I said "go take kosen judo"

[HAPKO3]

You don't think that if they called it Gracie Judo and Brazillian Judo or even just Kosen Judo a lot of the popularity of BJJ would have diffused to judo?

By this retarded excuse for an argument, the popularity should have diffused to regular jj, which it hasn't.

bwahaha.

[Dochter]

You don't think that if they called it Gracie Judo and Brazillian Judo or even just Kosen Judo a lot of the popularity of BJJ would have diffused to judo? That people would have imagined that Kodokan was the same or not really known that there were two different kinds of judo? And so on....

People went to bjj schools because they saw the gracies kick ass. Judo would have been equally novel in that respect if a ne waza strong fighter had torn through people like Royce did (how many actually knew what it was and watched it then, not a ton).

Even if novelty had something to do with whatever popularity bjj gained, that still doesn't support your primary contention regarding bjj being a fad. Specifically that once people realize bjj has a lot in common with judo they'll leave bjj for other things.

That is the keystone of your entire argument and you have not offered a single bit of evidence supporting it.

And your welcome for finally being the one to put your own argument coherently.

[Dochter]

Show me where I said "go take kosen judo"

You said newcomers would go take something besides bjj once they discover it has strong roots in judo*. There is nothing to support that contention.









*Just fyi, most bjj school sites have at least some blurb about bjj coming from judo. Hell, Renzo Gracie's book has several pages discussing it.

[Full Circle]

I didn't say that people would drop out of their BJJ class, especially if they took it for years.

The reason people take TKD is not because it is street effective. Its popularity is more with Soccer Moms sending their kids there and their soccer moms like it more because of things like the olympics and such.

Again the argument is based on popularity of BJJ being based on a false impression about it. Not all martial arts are popular for the same reasons (and that goes double for TKD and BJJ).

I'm not quite sure that people would become indifferent too it at long at it stayed effective. I for one wouldn't drop something because it a rehash of something else if it was still effective.

I think we need to clarify the point I made about it being a fad. I said the BJJ is the current hot MA. As such when a newbie joins a website they will be told by the community and other newbies that BJJ is the "best" art. You know the kind of post I mean - "Choose my MA for me" etc.

BJJ popularity will push a higher proportion to BJJ. Generally most new martial artists won't stay the course - and we've all seen this. How often do you really expect the new guy to be there in 1 or 2 years? This is the normal drop out level associated with physical exercise - it's the reason gyms make you sign 12 month contracts, because they know you're too lazy to keep going.

My point is that BJJ will be the popular art so more new guys will try it. The drop out rate being constant, there will be a higher proportion of BJJ dropping out when compared to other arts. However I don't feel this will be to some realisation they could get it better else where.

They are a) Member of the current "best" art until the next go back to McDonalds (and would leave any MA - BJJ or not) or b) Going to develop into a martial artist. If I was happy at my place and with the art I'd find it really hard to leave for some arbitary reason. You spend a lot of time with these people and develop friendships. It's not easy to chuck something away like that.

Now I know that not what you're saying, but I'm saying you're wrong about the reason they're getting into it in the first place.

[Full Circle]

By this retarded excuse for an argument, the popularity should have diffused to regular jj, which it hasn't. .

Touché .

[Forseti]

I'm not quite sure that people would become indifferent too it at long at it stayed effective. I for one wouldn't drop something because it a rehash of something else if it was still effective.

I think we need to clarify the point I made about it being a fad. I said the BJJ is the current hot MA. As such when a newbie joins a website they will be told by the community and other newbies that BJJ is the "best" art. You know the kind of post I mean - "Choose my MA for me" etc.

BJJ popularity will push a higher proportion to BJJ. Generally most new martial artists won't stay the course - and we've all seen this. How often do you really expect the new guy to be there in 1 or 2 years? This is the normal drop out level associated with physical exercise - it's the reason gyms make you sign 12 month contracts, because they know you're too lazy to keep going.

My point is that BJJ will be the popular art so more new guys will try it. The drop out rate being constant, there will be a higher proportion of BJJ dropping out when compared to other arts. However I don't feel this will be to some realisation they could get it better else where.

They are a) Member of the current "best" art until the next go back to McDonalds (and would leave any MA - BJJ or not) or b) Going to develop into a martial artist. If I was happy at my place and with the art I'd find it really hard to leave for some arbitary reason. You spend a lot of time with these people and develop friendships. It's not easy to chuck something away like that.

Now I know that not what you're saying, but I'm saying you're wrong about the reason they're getting into it in the first place.

Okay, then, just so we aknowledge that I wasn't saying that everyone was going to drop out of BJJ....

Yes, I agree that just because it is Kosen Judo is no reason to not want to take BJJ. That's not the problem. It is street effective and so people will be taking it. In fact it doesn't even have to be that street effective for this to happen. (As many have said on this forum before people do not just choose an MA because it is street effective.) I say they will become more indifferent. They will not decide it is worthless. And they may not even become totally indifferent. Just a lot less absolutely needing to do specifically BJJ.

It is a question of why it has an inflated popularity as to why it is a fad. You say it is because people think that it is the best when in fact it is not and that this is why the popularity is inflated. Why is it not? After all we all saw Royce Gracie defeat everyone in the UFC up until they started adding rules (with the one exception of the really goofy anomalous 3rd UFC where ninjitsu of all things won). They won because they have the keen insight to know that real fighting is all about ground fighting where everyone else is doing karate. That is why their family martial arts is superior to everything else. Everyone knows that BJJ is the best -- the reason people say otherwise is just because they have an agenda.

Okay, obviously I am making an argument here much like what I have actually heard and even once might have accepted myself. But the real reason they focus on the ground and have no time limits and fight to submission has more to do with Kosen Judo having such a focus, it seems, not because they realized they needed to change everything they were doing because real fights go to the ground and have no time limits. And it also seems that now, though it has more rules than it originally did, NHB fighting is not dominated by ground fighting. But most importantly the Gracies far from invented BJJ and very similar MAs were out there and evaluated and found lacking by very knowledgable and experienced people. And perhaps it is all just some unfair prejudicial bias of Jigoro Kanos or others, but....

Reasonable doubt as to the veracity of such a view as "BJJ is the best" is now much more firmly established in the mind of someone who only had the first argument. I think -- actually I know for a fact because I am there, dude, talking to these people -- you don't have to be a BJJ black belt to know this, in fact, you might have to not be one -- I know that people are going around with the first argument (or something like it and perhaps not well thought out at all) running through their head....