Page 19 of 36 First ... 915161718192021222329 ... Last
  1. #181
    Nutcracker, sweet's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    KAUS
    Posts
    5,018
    Style
    BJJ
    1
    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    Quote Originally Posted by WFMurphyPhD View Post
    1928 Southeast Florida/Lake Okeechobee Hurricane
    This gigantic Category 5 hurricane crushed Puerto Rico and only weakened slightly before hitting south Florida.
    The storm made landfall near West Palm Beach with winds of 145 mph.
    In the city, more than 1,711 homes were destroyed, but the impact was worse Lake Okeechobee.
    Storm surge caused the lake to overflow and put the surrounding area under 10 to 15 feet of water.
    Numerous houses and buildings were swept away in Belle Glade, Canal Point, Chosen, Pahokee and South Bay.
    At least 2,500 people drowned, but it's possible this number is as high as 3,000.
    While crossing Florida, the system weakened significantly.
    It curved and briefly re-emerged into the Atlantic and made another landfall near Edisto Island, South Carolina, with winds of 85 mph.
    (source: Weather Channel)

    The "Irma was the worst storm ever" is a silly and baseless claim.
    There's a bunch of ghost towns around the south and east shores of the lake, I've been to a few. IIRC, there was one town that was an island inside the lake, which was completely obliterated. It's now just a boggy area (unless ACOE decides to drain the lake ahead of a drought, again).

  2. #182
    Raycetpfl's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Location
    Tampa Fl
    Posts
    5,523
    Style
    Gracie Jiu Jitsu
    --
    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    Quote Originally Posted by Pship Destroyer View Post
    Barbuda (idiots right now are trying to figure out its location, just so they can cruise past it).

    Climate change and extreme hurricanes have basically forced humans off the island, as well as Key West.

    1 in 4 homes in Key West destroyed...time to wake up.

    For first time in 300 years, there’s not a single living person on the island of Barbuda
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ion/665950001/
    I was doing voice to text at work and didn't correct it. I meant barbuda.

  3. #183
    BKR's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Bonners Ferry, Idaho
    Posts
    16,781
    Style
    Kodokan Judo/BJJ
    --
    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    I'm putting this here to show some of the complexity involved in near-term climate (and hence weather) prediction, and the amount of data involved.

    ENSO is El NINO southern oscillation...

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

    Discussion of same...
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...y/ensodisc.pdf


    And hurricanes...oh my...
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...urricane.shtml
    Last edited by BKR; 9/20/2017 12:54pm at .
    Falling for Judo since 1980

    "You are wrong. Why? Because you move like a pregnant yak and talk like a spazzing 'I train UFC' noob." -DCS

    "The best part of getting you worked up is your backpack full of irony and lies." -It Is Fake

    "Banning BKR is like kicking a Quokka. It's foolishness of the first order." - Raycetpfl

  4. #184
    Nutcracker, sweet's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    KAUS
    Posts
    5,018
    Style
    BJJ
    0
    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    Scientific consensus?



    tl;dw: scientific peer-reviewed journals contain about 30% bullshit; a lot of the bullshit ends up in mass media; there's no significant effort to retract the bullshit; there's no penalty for publishing bullshit; repeatability (or lack thereof) isn't generally published.

    I leave you to draw your own conclusions.

  5. #185
    Permalost's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Location
    San Diego
    Posts
    14,376
    Style
    street paddleboarding
    2
    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    Quote Originally Posted by submessenger View Post
    Scientific consensus?



    tl;dw: scientific peer-reviewed journals contain about 30% bullshit; a lot of the bullshit ends up in mass media; there's no significant effort to retract the bullshit; there's no penalty for publishing bullshit; repeatability (or lack thereof) isn't generally published.

    I leave you to draw your own conclusions.
    Is the conclusion that the 97% of scientists that agree in human accelerated climate change can take a 30% hit, but the 3% can't?

  6. #186
    BKR's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Bonners Ferry, Idaho
    Posts
    16,781
    Style
    Kodokan Judo/BJJ
    --
    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    Nice, thanks for sharing!
    Falling for Judo since 1980

    "You are wrong. Why? Because you move like a pregnant yak and talk like a spazzing 'I train UFC' noob." -DCS

    "The best part of getting you worked up is your backpack full of irony and lies." -It Is Fake

    "Banning BKR is like kicking a Quokka. It's foolishness of the first order." - Raycetpfl

  7. #187
    Ice Hole's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    Suburbia
    Posts
    11,827
    Style
    Mixed
    3
    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    Quote Originally Posted by submessenger View Post
    scientific peer-reviewed journals contain about 30% bullshit;
    Bullshit stat.

    Nothing on Youtube is trustworthy. zip.

  8. #188
    Nutcracker, sweet's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    KAUS
    Posts
    5,018
    Style
    BJJ
    --
    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    Quote Originally Posted by W. Rabbit View Post
    Bullshit stat.

    Nothing on Youtube is trustworthy. zip.
    ftfy.

  9. #189
    Ice Hole's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    Suburbia
    Posts
    11,827
    Style
    Mixed
    --
    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    Quote Originally Posted by submessenger View Post
    ftfy.
    Trust is a bridge. It can be built, destroyed, and built again.

  10. #190

    Join Date
    Sep 2015
    Location
    Italy
    Posts
    439
    Style
    Judo, Nippon Kempo
    2
    Hell yeah! Hell no!
    Quote Originally Posted by submessenger View Post
    Scientific consensus?

    tl;dw: scientific peer-reviewed journals contain about 30% bullshit; a lot of the bullshit ends up in mass media; there's no significant effort to retract the bullshit; there's no penalty for publishing bullshit; repeatability (or lack thereof) isn't generally published.

    I leave you to draw your own conclusions.
    I'm 20 seconds in the video and I'm already bored and irritated by it, so I won't look at it in deep, however:

    do you realize (or does the guy in the video realize) that just because something is published in a peer reviewed journal this doesn't mean it represents the scientific consensus?

    There are are various layers in this story:

    1) science can be wrong - something that we believe is true today can turn out to be false tomorrow. Scientific consensus just means that something looks true at best of our current, present knowledge.

    2) but there are many areas where a scientific consensus didn't develop. Most published papers are in this area, because the stuff that is certain you can find it in the textbooks, you don't need scientific journals for this. Peer reviewed scientific journals cannot represent scientific consesus, but at best scientific inquiry, that is not the same thing. Then obviously there are a lot of problems with scientific journals to boot.

    3) then some people, for some reason, get enamored with a "scientific theory" (please note, not necessariously with the consensus) for all sorts of reasons, usually political or economic, and abuse it by citing some reasearch from somewhere to justify their cause. This is the source of most bullshit. The fact that most bullshit is motivated bullshit is important.

    4) finally, there is a big difference between the level of certainity of natural sciences (quite high) and of human sciences like psychology, sociology and perhaps economics; in human sciences, even the "consensus" (that doesn't really exists anyway) is fuzzy and dubious. So researches in human sciences should be regarded as attempt to find something useful, not as "Teh Truth".

Page 19 of 36 First ... 915161718192021222329 ... Last

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Log in

Log in