UFC 158 GSP vs. Diaz

[Zerstörer90]

Georges St. Pierre vs. Nick Diaz
Carlos Condit vs. Rory MacDonald
Johny Hendricks vs. Jake Ellenberger

Underrated IMO.

Context: Talking about Nick Diaz.

This is probably true. He lost a very close and disputed decision to a guy that almost knocked Georges out in his last outing. People are already writing Diaz off. For one, it's very possible Nick Diaz is better than Carlos Condit off of his back. For two, Nick Diaz' boxing and footwork were enough to handle Condit's leg kicks for an extended time during their fight. He wasn't switching his stance overtly like Nate was against Bendo. Not to mention the fact that Condit had to out-point Nick while moving backwards, which is very hard to do. Now that I agree with you that he is underrated, this is why I don't think he will win.

George St. Pierre vs. Nick Diaz


If GSP takes the "play it safe" (as it's been often called) typical strategy of takedowns followed by pressure and Ground and Pound to exhaust and wear down his opponent to maintain dominance to a 5 round decision or a late finish if his opponent fades, he'll probably win. Let's face it. This strategy has proven to be difficult to beat. Condit came close, but was still dominated in the fight overall.


If GSP tries to "make an example" of Diaz. It could go the other way. Diaz could catch him and pressure a finish where Condit failed. However, Diaz has to constantly worry about the takedown attempts of GSP, which he throws in with his striking to great effect. GSP is excellent at mixing his skillsets. Diaz may have trouble imposing himself on GSP if he is worried about defending the takedown.


If GSP wants to punish Diaz on the feet, he needs to land the calf-level leg kicks that will prevent Nick from keeping all his weight on his front foot (like Bendo did against Nate). GSP can then set up combinations and powerful strikes (leg kicks, head kicks) by landing the jab stiff and in volume; using it (and takedowns) to disrupt the combinations of Diaz, who favors extended exhanges.


There is a possibility that Diaz, being a Cesar Gracie Black Belt, could (gasp!) submit GSP. If any part of Nick Diaz's game is underrated, IMHO, it's his ground game. He may have had it revoked, but his win over Takanori Gomi via one of the first gogoplatas in MMA history is an impressive feather in his cap. He shook BJ Penn off of his back, and he almost upsetted Carlos Condit by Armbar. Nick Diaz is not to be trifled with on the ground. Though...


On the other hand, GSP hasn't been submitted since Matt Hughes pulled off an armbar against him in 2004 (That's 8 years!). Another, more decorated and submission focused Cesar Gracie Black Belt, with wrestling credentials, couldn't take down GSP, let alone submit him. He has arguably the best mma-applied wrestling in the sport. In the event this goes to the ground, it will likely be on GSP's terms. With Greg Jackson in the corner, we can reasonably assume those terms will likely involve:


a. the end of each round,


b. when Diaz gains any forward momentum,


or


c. when Nick's wheels and/or gas tank are depleted from GSP's stand up advantage (via his wrestling


TL;DR


What he said:

GSP is gonna run Diaz over.

And yea, Diaz probably is underrated.


Carlos Condit vs. Rory MacDonald

I'm going out on a limb here, because I'm a huge Carlos Condit fan. I believe Rory has all of the tools to win this fight convincingly, and I also believe he is more motivated than their last outing. As long as Rory pours it on in the third round and doesn't step off the gas a la his loss against Condit, and his most recent fight against BJ Penn, I see this being another example of how awesomely talented this kid is.

Johny Hendricks vs. Jake Ellenberger

Knockout. Again. Johny Hendricks has dynamite in his left hand. Hendricks is my pick for the dark horse of the Welterweight title picture. A Southpaw with knockout power (understatement of the yea for me), and impressive collegiate wrestling credentials.

Forgive me if I overlook Ellenberger, but he doesn't have the resume of Kos, Kampmann, or Fitch.

Rd. 1 Knockout.

[Neo Sigma]

Nick Diaz' boxing and footwork were enough to handle Condit's leg kicks for an extended time during their fight

If by "handle" you mean "didn't take a ton of damage from them", then maybe. But according to the Fightmetric counter, Diaz ate 68 leg kicks. Here's a pretty good breakdown of why both Nick and Nate get their legs beaten up so often- http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2012/10/2...p-mma-analysis

People who watch fights and fighters themselves sometimes seem to forget that the leg kick isn't there just to cause damage. Properly used, it should be breaking your opponent's balance and keeping them from being able to throw with power. The Diaz style of fighting is too focused on pushing opponents straight back to avoid getting exploited with that. Whether you like watching him fight or not, GSP is too smart and too good at playing to an opponent's weakness to not jump all over that.

EDIT- But then, we're pretty much saying the same thing. Derp. I fully expect another Diaz whiny meltdown once GSP is done making him hobble about how he wasn't hurt and judging is rigged and he needs a new bottle and a diaper change.

[Zerstörer90]

If by "handle" you mean "didn't take a ton of damage from them", then maybe. But according to the Fightmetric counter, Diaz ate 68 leg kicks. Here's a pretty good breakdown of why both Nick and Nate get their legs beaten up so often- http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2012/10/2...p-mma-analysis

People who watch fights and fighters themselves sometimes seem to forget that the leg kick isn't

there just to cause damage. Properly used, it should be breaking your opponent's balance and keeping them from being able to throw with power. The Diaz style of fighting is too focused on pushing opponents straight back to avoid getting exploited with that. Whether you like watching him fight or not, GSP is too smart and too good at playing to an opponent's weakness to not jump all over that.

EDIT- But then, we're pretty much saying the same thing. Derp. I fully expect another Diaz whiny meltdown once GSP is done making him hobble about how he wasn't hurt and judging is rigged and he needs a new bottle and a diaper change.

Yea. I was merely pointing out his resilience to the leg kicks of a very technical and poweful kicker in Condit. 68 Leg kicks and he kept moving forward. That's the part I should have emphasized. I also expect another meltdown from Nick after GSP frustrates him thoroughly. Like Mike Winklejohn said about Diaz: "He comes back from the grave".

And I hope Diaz isn't so stupid that he thinks he can walk into that cage without making the adjustments to make this a good fight. GSP should have to threaten the takedown and the boxing in order to land those leg kicks. I don't believe Georges is the kickboxer that Condit is; ergo, I don't think he is going to outland Diaz moving backwards. [Assuming Nick Diaz makes the adjustments] GSP will have to land in the transitions between grappling, clinching, and striking; which in the past he has been very good at. And I personally would like to see a return to that dynamic fighting-style and game-planning that made his name, instead of the formula that has been so successful lately in his title reign to keep it on the top of the list.

EDIT: And the adjustments I believe Nick needs to make are to throw some leg kicks of his own, to ***check them from his opponent*** and to keep the fight in close range without getting taken down. If he does get taken down, it'll be interesting to see if all that hype behind the Cesar Gracie Black Belts' ground game (The "what if" from the shields fight that never happened) is going to hold up against the Welterweight King's tried and true Submission defense and pressure-based ground game.

[Tranquil Suit]

I'm just gonna go ahead and say it, this is the easy money fight for GSP. Ofcourse he wants it. No, not at the level of Silva/Bonnar, but still.

Diaz was almost ko'd by freaking Paul Daley, not the most fight IQ type of fighter out there.

[Zerstörer90]

I'm just gonna go ahead and say it, this is the easy money fight for GSP. Ofcourse he wants it. No, not at the level of Silva/Bonnar, but still.

I disagree completely. I think Diaz poses a threat similar to Condit, considering how close their fight was, and the similar skillsets they represent. Considering diaz to be an easy money fight would similarly be considering Condit's fight to be an easy money one, which it wasn't.

Diaz was almost ko'd by freaking Paul Daley, not the most fight IQ type of fighter out there.

Instead of what? taking him down and laying on him like koscheck? He beat Daley standing up. This exemplified his resilience, his striking skills, and his fearlessness. That fight showed he was human, because he was very close to being knocked out. But ALMOST being knocked out, then coming back and winning by KNOCKOUT isn't being a can, it's called recovering from adversity.

I respectfully think you are writing him off because of his personality and bad publicity.
Now... I still think GSP will win, but it's not going to be an easy pay check anywhere near like Silva/Bonnar.

[Tranquil Suit]

I disagree completely. I think Diaz poses a threat similar to Condit, considering how close their fight was, and the similar skillsets they represent. Considering diaz to be an easy money fight would similarly be considering Condit's fight to be an easy money one, which it wasn't.

Condit's strength is his creative combinations. Diaz' strength is plowing forward, pressuring his opponent. This worked well on Condit who needs that bit of space to set up those combos, but GSP is smart and has already come up with a strategy to use his own style against him.

Condit, thou fully dominated, could at least surpise GSP with that exotic combo in Round 3. Diaz on the other, has no such surprises.

Instead of what? taking him down and laying on him like koscheck? He beat Daley standing up. This exemplified his resilience, his striking skills, and his fearlessness. That fight showed he was human, because he was very close to being knocked out. But ALMOST being knocked out, then coming back and winning by KNOCKOUT isn't being a can, it's called recovering from adversity.

I'm not at all saying he's a can. But if he had that much adversity against Daley in the striking department, what do you think GSP's boxing is going to do to him.

I respectfully think you are writing him off because of his personality and bad publicity.
Now... I still think GSP will win, but it's not going to be an easy pay check anywhere near like Silva/Bonnar.

I never grade fighters by personality.

IMO, Diaz has been overrated since his win over BJ Penn. Yes, the BJ Penn who's been riding off his name for the past 5 fights.


All I'm saying is, it's a surefire dominant win for GSP. To me, there are no questions in this fight. Unlike say GSP/Silva.

[Zerstörer90]

All I'm saying is, it's a surefire dominant win for GSP. To me, there are no questions in this fight. Unlike say GSP/Silva

I wouldn't say surefire. But other than that I agree with you.

[Shawarma]

Sonnen gets the piss beat out of him by Silva and does not only get gifted a title shot but a whole season of a TV show for him to spout his bullshit. Diaz gets totally outstrategised by Condit, ragequits MMA mewling like a fucking bitch and then gets gifted a title shot while coming off a loss.

**** the UFC.

[Dickhead]

It is pretty odd. I thought that Sonnen had said he'd quit if Silva won?

[Neo Sigma]

Sonnen gets the piss beat out of him by Silva and does not only get gifted a title shot but a whole season of a TV show for him to spout his bullshit. Diaz gets totally outstrategised by Condit, ragequits MMA mewling like a fucking bitch and then gets gifted a title shot while coming off a loss.

**** the UFC.

And the suspension, don't forget that. Look on the bright side, maybe he'll actually stay retired this time after GSP is done with him.