UFC on Fox 4 - August 4, Los Angeles

[danno]

"opening up"... I initially made that error and learned--the hard way--not to make it again.

Well, I think these fighters have too. I think you'd agree that Mike Tyson had decent defense? Yet in the photo I posted above, there he is dropping the left hand. In most fights you'll see the same thing happen, even if it's only for a moment.

Which is why I was attempting to focus on something that can be identified regardless of speed. Of course, things happen so fast that it's tempting to say that **** just happens, and that is indeed true.

Well that's it, isn't it? You're making extremely technical decisions at the limit of human reflexes. If you misjudge something by a little, it's lights out. You might come out looking quite the fool in slow motion replays.

I'm not sure if that conclusion is applicable in this specific case. Question: if Bader had protected his head properly with the nonstriking arm and thrown a straighter right than the one he did, might Machida's angles of possible counter not been reduced? How might closing range this way have affected the outcome of this fight?

I think he was forced to adjust. He started throwing the punch thinking it would be for a longer range, then the conditions changed and he flared his elbow up to strike a target which was closer.

If Machida had missed the punch or Bader had blocked it, I suppose Bader would have intended to clinch and/or attempt an immediate takedown, and Machida would probably have escaped again. Or he'd try to trade strikes and Machida would escape.

Bader is smarter than to do something repeatedly against Machida, isn't he? At his level, I"m sure he is. Ah, well, another mystery.

To be fair, he was trying to mix it up. He pulled down the lead hand and threw a jab with it, also used the lead leg kick. But as soon as any combo started, Machida was on his bike. That limits your options.

Now I'm really mystified. Pawing and clearing the opponent's hand away is a staple...of Karate (except for people like me, who never bother with it). It's bread-and-butter Shotokan. Why anyone would attempt to do this against Machida, who would be far more familiar with it (and ways of responding to it effectively), I just don't get.

...

...and there's the rub. Why reach for it, before or then? Why not keep the nonstriking arm close to his own head, where he can parry if necessary. That's my question. It's not typical of anything he trains (as far as I know, Bader doesn't do Shotokan), so why try it against somebody whose style features it?

All the more reason not to reach 'n' paw. Bader's camp must have been aware that Machida changes **** up like that, seemingly on a whim. Getting caught with the hand down-and-out is never advisable...and particularly suicidal when facing someone like Machida. Machida is exactly the sort of fighter one should properly cover up against, or face dismantlement.

It often happens when fighters are using opposite lead hands. Gauging range and trying to remove that weapon by touching it.

Bader would start with hands close, Machida would start reaching toward him which threatens a jab and keeps Bader out of range. So Bader was trying to take control back of that range.

Shogun had a JKA world champion in his camp to prepare. I think Bader and his team would have been watching tapes of Shogun defeating machida, and attempting to recreate the conditions which led to it.

Does this look a little familiar?





Differece is, Shogun didn't misread Machida's movement and timing.

Is it my imagination, or did MAchida actually look a bit to his right and actually let loose some kind of "Kiai" thing when unleashing that right? Srs.

lol. Flinch from Bader's glancing blow I assume.

[danno]

If you decide not to play Machida's game, you suffer a fate as bad or even worse than getting knocked out - you get accused of being a boring fighter.

[mike321]

I was reading Machidas bio. Sumo. I need to watch some Sumo with weight classes. Thanks for taking the shot at the grappling analysis. He does look very comfortable in the clinch.

[Vieux Normand]

Well, I think these fighters have too. I think you'd agree that Mike Tyson had decent defense? Yet in the photo I posted above, there he is dropping the left hand. In most fights you'll see the same thing happen, even if it's only for a moment.

Tyson had something of a chin, and nobody claimed pro fighters never drop hands. I was merely suggesting that it's never a good idea when closing. You can get clocked, and luck may be one reason you don't. Why count on luck?

Well that's it, isn't it? You're making extremely technical decisions at the limit of human reflexes. If you misjudge something by a little, it's lights out. You might come out looking quite the fool in slow motion replays.

Is protecting the face at a vulnerable time such as closing range an extremely technical decision? When time does not allow for much thinking, you fall back on what you've trained and drilled or--once again--you're counting on luck.

I think he was forced to adjust. He started throwing the punch thinking it would be for a longer range, then the conditions changed and he flared his elbow up to strike a target which was closer. If Machida had missed the punch or Bader had blocked it, I suppose Bader would have intended to clinch and/or attempt an immediate takedown, and Machida would probably have escaped again. Or he'd try to trade strikes and Machida would escape.

...which is an outcome that would have given Bader chances that getting KOed didn't.

To be fair, he was trying to mix it up. He pulled down the lead hand and threw a jab with it, also used the lead leg kick. But as soon as any combo started, Machida was on his bike. That limits your options.

One of those options is ring generalship: cutting off routes of escape without dropping your defenses by pawing out your hands. Takes legwork, which a high-level wrestler should be familiar with.

It often happens when fighters are using opposite lead hands. Gauging range and trying to remove that weapon by touching it.

...which is why doing "touching lead hands" with Machida--accustomed as he is to this sort of thing due to his background--is the last thing one should do.

Bader would start with hands close, Machida would start reaching toward him which threatens a jab and keeps Bader out of range. So Bader was trying to take control back of that range.

Machida reaches like that due to his background. That doesn't mean anyone else should play his game. As for Bader taking back control: protect your face and use legwork.

Shogun had a JKA world champion in his camp to prepare. I think Bader and his team would have been watching tapes of Shogun defeating machida, and attempting to recreate the conditions which led to it.

An excellent idea. Did they?

Difference is, Shogun didn't misread Machida's movement and timing.

...and where was Machida's nonstriking hand? Yep...down where it shouldn't be. I use this photo when discussing a proper defense with Shotokan-types. Sometimes, relying on luck gets you KOed even at elite-fighting level. Hopefully, Machida will learn and adapt when training for any future meeting with Rua.

[danno]

An excellent idea. Did they?

They'd be crazy not to, and I'm sure they watched every bit of video they could find.

...which is why doing "touching lead hands" with Machida--accustomed as he is to this sort of thing due to his background--is the last thing one should do.

Probably. I think it really became a problem when Machida changed stances and had Bader confused for a moment.

Shogun did that too, he touched hands the same way. He also charged forward, dropped his left while throwing a long right. But it worked.

You know, I don't think it can really be put down to what we consider "right" or "wrong" technique. I think Machida could read Bader's intentions better than the other way around.

Hopefully, Machida will learn and adapt when training for any future meeting with Rua.

I reckon he already has. I think he's better than when he lost to Shogun.

[Vieux Normand]

Shogun did that too, he touched hands the same way. He also charged forward, dropped his left while throwing a long right. But it worked.

The Machida camp, given what Lyoto will likely soon face in terms of opponents, had better do their utmost to discern the difference(s) between Shogun's approach and Bader's. Unless I'm as senile as I suspect, Rua closed much faster than Bader, not allowing Machida the time and distance to play his game, and forcing Machida to trade on less-advantageous terms than he would have preferred. Rua also has a more tested chin than Bader. Still, I doubt either camp will leave anything to luck if they can avoid it.

You know, I don't think it can really be put down to what we consider "right" or "wrong" technique. I think Machida could read Bader's intentions better than the other way around.

Absolutely, and this allowed him to dictate the terms of the bout. If facing as intelligent a fighter as that, I would be especially careful of being as "armoured" as possible given how quickly ranges can change. This, of course, guarantees nothing 100%...but--like a fat goaltender in front of a small net--one can lessen the available vectors of attack.

I reckon he already has. I think he's better than when he lost to Shogun.

I hope so. That would make Machida-Rua III a very interesting bout. They're currently 1-1 officially. Of course, we'll have to wait until Machida has a go at the winner of the UFC 151 main card before any re-rematch with Rua is envisioned. LHW may yet have some interesting moments...