Posted On:12/18/2011 11:20pm
Style: Hiatus for Gen. Fitness
Well, the ronery little dictator of North Korea is dead. It'll be interesting to see if the government survives his passing, as it was largely built as a cult of personality around him and it's hard to tell if his son has been firmly enough established to keep the whole place from collapsing house-of-cards style. I wonder whether this is the first step to stabilization of the region; honestly, I don't know enough about the North Korean situation regarding their military to know if they'd try to take advantage of the situation to control Kim Jong Un. Kid's a bit young to be a dictator.
Posted On:12/18/2011 11:50pm
Style: No primary style
I have no idea what Kim Jong Un is capable of doing. He's only in his 20's, so I can't imagine he has a great deal of political experience. I'm interested in what he thinks. Is he looking to up his father's crazy, tone it down or just maintain the staus quo? There's also the issue, as CNagy points out, of the military seizing control via using Kim Jong Un as a puppet. And how are the citizens going to take to Kim Jong Un? The citizens of North Korea had a fanatical, even slavish, devotion to Kim Jong Il. Can anyone hope to be a replacement? I worry that North Korea will now suffer only greater destabilization.
Posted On:12/19/2011 12:03am
i thought he was dead already but was being kept quiet so kim jong un could prepare.
i think it would be best if the UN gets there as fast as possible and make some form of contact
Posted On:12/19/2011 1:01am
Style: Sambo n3wb
Kim Jong Il is dead, what's next? His son.
Kim Jong Un was made general of the Korean People's Army and vice chairman of the Central Military Commission in 2010. My money is on a continuation of business as usual or worse.
As somebody pointed out, he's in his 20's. Imagine a 20-year old sitting in the most powerful seat in Korea while having the fourth largest standing military in the world at his fingertips. Now combine that with Kim Jong Il's advisers and closest commanders.
:911flag: If you are lost, I will find you. If you are wounded, I will carry you. If you are pinned, I will cover you. If you are killed, I will recover and remember you. If you trespass against me, my countrymen, or my loved ones...I will kill you.
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Posted On:12/19/2011 1:15am
Kim Jong-Il didn't really have much in the way of advisers except in name. He had a bunch of sycophants and yes-men. Bringing up the cult of personality thing, it's easy to forget that the cult was originally formed around his father and then transferred to him successfully. It's not like Kim Jong-Il made his own cult of personality; he inherited it. This puts Kim Jong-un in an unenviable position: even if he does want to tone things down. By doing so he essentially says his father was wrong, which undermines the cult following.
The two big questions are:
How far the fruit of his loins falls from the crazy tree?
What's going to happen between the four brothers and Kim Jong-Il's brother in law?
Posted On:12/19/2011 3:11am
Style: aikido, Bjj,
I just really want to find out that he died from having an argument with his son.
Posted On:12/19/2011 4:12am
Style: Limalama, Judo & BJJ
From what I've heard he is even more batshit than his father was. Think Paris Hilton with a shortman complex, nukes and a standing army completely devoted to following his orders.
Posted On:12/19/2011 4:30am
Style: BJJ, formerly Judo
Copied from Reddit:
Alright, I know I'm late to this, but I'll comment anyway. I'm using a throwaway because I work in the international security field, and I simply don't know what kind of monitoring my agency has placed on my main account and computer.
A military coup is a distinct possibility. The death of Kim Jong-Il has created a power vacuum, and many generals are looking to fill it. There are coups that have been in the works for a long time.
That said, Kim Jong-Un is not an idiot like the Western media and agencies like mine have spread as rumor. He is not particularly capable, but he is Kim Jong-Il's son -- he is ruthless and largely unwilling to relinquish power. A military coup against him would divide the country, and coup leaders cannot have that. NK is strong because it is united, and its leaders know this.
Any coup would need to be mostly bloodless and garner popular support, likely through moving Kim Jong-Un to a prominent but powerless position. The most likely culprits in this scenario are Kim Jong-Il's sister, Kim Kyong-hui, and her husband, Chang Sung-taek. Sung-taek has been a prominent figure in NK's leadership since Kim Jong-Il's stroke in 2008, and Kim Kyong-hui is a high-ranking general with considerable sway. Were they to stage a coup, the situation would likely remain rather stable with few ramifications for South Korea.
A less likely but scarier situation involves China. The Chinese are largely tired of dealing with North Korea, and Korea as a whole. They may make a move to establish power in North Korea. The Chinese already have a great deal of sway in NK due to them being North Korea's only real supporter. They may manipulate the situation there to consolidate more influence and reign in the North Korean rogue state. While this would be good for the Chinese, it would scare us here in the United States. While I doubt it would come to open conflict, posturing would be made over the issue of Taiwan. The US would likely arm Taiwan, citing a Chinese power grab in NK as grounds to prepare for one in Taiwan.
The Russians also have a vested interest in the developments in North Korea, because they are a buyer of arms and military technology (particularly of the nuclear sort). They do not want that market to collapse, so they would likely maneuver to prevent instability in NK.
The South Koreans are the most important actor here. SK wants to retake the region, but they know this would anger the Chinese, Japanese, and US (though they are SK's allies, Japan and the US care more about relations with China than they do about the reunification of Korea). Any action by South Korea to destabilize North Korea will likely result in a swift response from North Korea. NK's leaders know that the best way to consolidate power would be to head North Korea in a military conflict against South Korea. SK also knows this, and they also realize the ramifications any action would entail.
My department, though not all of my agency is in accord, does not see the situation as regionally destabilizing. Internal conflict will, as we see it, be the only outcome. All others will watch closely and carefully, and this will be used as a bargaining chip in the next few weeks -- I guarantee there will be a UN Security Council meeting over this and Russia, China, and the US will debate the issue.
I would not worry too much. If anything, the situation in North Korea is no more unpredictable than it was before Kim Jong-Il's death.
EDIT: to address what a few others have said, there will be no reunification -- at least not presently. This may be the beginning of the end, but the North Koreans will not peacefully reunify with South Korea and vice versa. Any violent reunification is highly unlikely because other (and much more powerful) actors in the international scene want to prevent that.
Just go there, it's the top post.
Last edited by 100xobm; 12/19/2011 4:33am at .
Originally Posted by Judoka_UK
Judo is the PC to Sambo's Mac.
Posted On:12/19/2011 5:13am
Style: BJJ 'n stuff
Let's hope Kim Jong Un doesn't turn out to be the Genghis to Kim Jong Il's Kublai
Posted On:12/19/2011 6:45am
Missile Launch Detected. No seriously. Check the minutes on the site.
:EDIT: Confirmed here
I was planning on going to teach English in Seoul in like three months. Frankly I'm a little put out.
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