Here's my rundown of the fight. I rewatched it in high def with the sound all the way up so I could hear connecting strikes when the camera angle made them difficult to see.
4:45, Shogun glances a left hook, gets clinched and eats three hard knees
4:10 Machida lands a body kick and throws a left that hits forearms
4:05 Shogun lands an inside leg kick
4:00 Machida clinches, lands a hard knee, gets bodylocked and pushed into the fence.
Shogun gets six knees to the legs and one to the body, Machida gets one arm-punch to the ribs, then Machida circles off the fence and separates at about 3:20
3:15 Machida lands a body kick, Shogun lands a leg kick counter
3:05 Machida lands a knee to the body, Shogun tries a takedown, Machida defends against the fence and brings it back up to the clinch. Shogun gets two knees to the legs, fails a trip attempt, and Machida circles off and disengages at 2:30.
2:05 Machida lands a short, jab-esque lead leg kick to the low shin
1:45 Shogun lands a body kick, Machida counters with a punch to the chest and a clean punch to the head.
1:00 Shogun lands a good leg kick which Machida counters with a kick to Shogun's supporting leg that causes him to stumble backwards.
0:55 Machida lands a body kick
0:50 Shogun throws a body kick which is blocked, but lands a right hook as his leg comes down that connects - this is the punch that's freeze-framed in
0:22 Shogun lands a body kick, Machida counters with a kick to Shogun's supporting leg that buckles his knee slightly
Shogun landed 16 clean strikes - one of them was a glancing punch, eight were knees to the legs in the clinch.
Machida landed 14 clean strikes - one an arm-punch to the ribs in the clinch, two were counter-kicks to Shogun's supporting leg, both of which caused him to stumble. Shogun did the same counter at one point but didn't move Machida or appear to affect his balance/footing.
Personally I would give this round to Machida. Shogun outlanded him very narrowly, but I feel that Machida's many hard knees to the body were a greater volume of quality strikes than Shogun's clinch knees to the thighs, and the margin of quantity was extremely small. The round could easily go either way depending on how much you weighted certain strikes, and the right hand at the end from Shogun could have stolen the round.
4:40 Machida lands a glancing front kick, Shogun counters with a glancing jab
4:36 Shogun lands an inside leg kick
4:05 Machida throws two right-left combos - in the first one, the right hits forearm but the left connects, in the second the right appears to fall slightly short but the left connects again.
3:50 Shogun lands a body kick
3:19 Machida throws a left-right-left leg kick combo; the punches hit forearm but the kick causes Shogun to stumble
3:12 Machida hits a hard knee to the body as Shogun tries to shoot in, Shogun drives him into the fence, Lyoto defends and circles off
2:41 Machida switches stances, steps forward and hits something halfway between a leg kick and a sweep attempt that I still can't quite tell if it connected or not even after rewinding five times. Shogun might just be lifting his leg out of the way.
2:35 Machida misses a right, and then does his trip where he pushes on their head with the arm he missed with and kicks their same side leg. Shogun stumbles but grabs at Lyoto and stays on his feet.
2:04 Machida lands a kick to the body
1:56 Shogun whifs a punch flurry but throws a body kick after it that seems to glance across Machida's stomach
1:36 Shogun steps to the outside for a kick but Lyoto cuts him off with a left to the face.
1:30 Shogun lands a body kick, at the same time Machida hits him in the face with a counterpunch and kicks his supporting leg (although unlike previous times there didn't appear to be much on the kick and Shogun didn't stumble) Shogun tries a takedown but gets stuffed.
1:10 Shogun lands an inside leg kick
0:51 Machida lands a knee to the body, Shogun clinches and fires one of his own which is blocked. Shogun pushes him into the fence and lands three knees to the legs. He then throws two that Lyoto blocks with his knee. Lyoto lands one of his own, Shogun five more and a knee to the body. Machida frog-kicks Shogun's leg. Shogun tries to throw a punch off the break as Machida disengages and circles off, and the round ends.
Shogun landed 15 clean strikes. 1 was a glancing jab, 8 were knees to the legs on the fence.
Machida landed 13 clean strikes. 1 was a glancing front kick, 2 were leg kicks that caused Shogun to stumble, 1 was the kick/trip that I wasn't sure if it connected, and 1 was the heel-kick from the clinch.
I initially gave this round to Machida, but on rewatching it I felt it was extremely close. Shogun may have stolen it with the multitude of clinch knees in the end, but the fact that several of Machida's leg kicks visibly buckled Shogun's leg (although I feel that this was due to them being extremely accurately placed at the back of Shogun's knee rather than being particularly powerful) could definitely sway a judge as well.
In retrospect I would judge this round a draw, after which Keith Kizer would beat me with a sack of oranges.
4:49 Shogun lands a body kick which Machida counters with a left to the face and a kick to the supporting leg
4:34 Machida lunges forward and lands a left to the face through Shogun's guard, then a body kick. He follows up with another body kick which Shogun counters with a kick to the supporting leg.
4:05 Shogun lands a body kick
3:20 Machida lands a body kick, Shogun counters with a kick to the supporting leg
2:55 Shogun lands a leg kick, Machida counters with a right hand through his guard
2:40 Machida puts a hand out, Shogun follows it back into the clinch and drives him into the fence. He lands one knee to the leg and an elbow to the face as he breaks and backs up.
2:20 Machida hits a glancing inside leg kick, Shogun responds with a good leg kick
2:00 Machida hits a body kick, Shogun counters with a kick to his supporting leg
1:52 Shogun hits a hard kick to the body, Machida counters with a left to the face and kick to the supporting leg
1:08 Machida lands a glancing body kick, Shogun chases after him with a flurry that misses, then hits him with a good leg kick as he comes forward off the fence. Machida clinches, hits a body knee, and a glancing punch as Shogun misses a knee and backs out of the clinch
0:36 Machida throws a left-right, the left hits forearm but the right connects. Shogun counters with a body kick at the same time as the right, and moves backwards. Machida follows him into the fence throwing punches, which all land on forearms, and two body knees. Lyoto steps back from Shogun and unloads with a flurry, several punches hit forearms but three hooks and an uppercut connect cleanly, along with a body kick. Shogun fires back with a right that lands and Lyoto clinches, Shogun attempts a takedown which fails, throws a knee which is blocked and they disengage and circle out.
Shogun landed 13 clean strikes, one of which was a knee to the thigh against the fence.
Machida landed 22 clean strikes, one of which was a glancing kick, one a glancing punch.
Both guys landed many of the counter-kick to the supporting leg in this round. Unlike the first two rounds, Lyoto's kicks didn't buckle Shogun's leg as much.
This is the clearest round for Lyoto; he outlanded Shogun by a fairly wide margin, the vast majority of which were quality strikes, and the flurry at the end sealed it even though it happened so fast that it was difficult to tell which strikes landed and which didn't (I had to rewind over eight times and use slo-mo).
4:08 Machida lands a lead-leg kick
3:50 Machida lands a body kick, Shogun counters with a kick to the supporting leg, Machida counters with a right-left that only hit forearms
3:40 Machida lands a glancing leg kick
3:15 Shogun lands a body kick
3:03 Shogun lands a glancing leg kick, Machida responds with a glancing leg kick and slips. Shogun rushes forward as he gets back to his feet and turns it into a double attempt. Machida locks his hands in crotch-lift position, they jockey for balance and then disengage and circle away.
2:19 Shogun lands a leg kick, Machida counters with a right through Shogun's guard. Machida rushes forward with punches, Shogun blocks them, clinches and hits a knee to the body, then circles out.
1:46 Shogun lands a leg kick, Machida's counters hit forearms
1:34 Machida lands a right to the face as Shogun lowers his guard and comes in for the clinch. Machida gets double-unders, shogun pummels and lands a glancing elbow on the break
1:05 Shogun lands a knee to the body as Machida counters with a right to the face
0:47 Shogun lands a leg kick
Shogun landed 9 clean shots, one of which was a glancing leg kick, one of which was a glancing elbow.
Machida landed 7 clean shots, two of which were glancing leg kicks.
Machida checked several leg kicks in this round, the first time in the fight he really started doing so rather than either avoiding them or eating them.
This is another extremely close round. In terms of quality strikes the two were extremely close, and most of them happened in exchanges where each guy landed, making it difficult to judge. The fact that Lyoto was visibly slowing down in this round could definitely sway judges towards giving it to Shogun.
I would score this another draw round.
4:34 Shogun lands an inside leg kick
4:31 Machida hits a knee to the body and clinches, Shogun circles out
4:15 They trade very light, almost half-feint leg kicks
4:11 Shogun lands a body kick, Lyoto lands a right to the face and scoops the leg for the kick, but can't hold on to it
4:00 Shogun lands an inside leg kick that causes Lyoto to stumble, the first time Machida's done so
3:38 Shogun lands a glancing body kick
3:31 Machida lands a body kick, Shogun counters with a kick to the supporting leg
2:47 Lyoto lands a hard knee to the body, tries to land another but misses. Shogun circles out but gets clinched against the fence by Machida. He misses a knee to the leg and Machida leans on him till Herb Dean breaks it up
2:05 Shogun throws a hard kick that Lyoto checks; the crack is audible and both guys look a little pained.
1:45 Shogun clinches and throws a knee to the body, backs Lyoto into the fence and hits an elbow and a right hand off the break.
0:42 Machida throws a knee which is blocked, Shogun fires back with a one-two that connects.
0:10 Machida throws a body kick, Shogun fires back with a left hook, Machida clinches, Shogun disengages.
Shogun lands 11 clean shots, one of which was a glancing body kick. One of his leg kicks caused Lyoto to stumble, the first time in the fight he was actually able to disrupt his balance with a kick.
Machida lands 5 clean shots.
This was the round that I clearly gave to Shogun when I first watched it, and it's pretty clear in retrospect as well. Lyoto had slowed down a lot and Shogun was starting to buckle his legs for the first time in the fight.
In summary I still would have scored this fight for Machida, but it was very, very close - even closer than I first thought it was. An easy case could be made for giving any of the first four rounds to either fighter, as I initially thought. The fight could easily be scored a draw, as well.
If you were scoring the fight as a whole rather than by round, the fact that Shogun was clearly pulling ahead as the fight came to a close would definitely favor him as the winner.
As a side note, this was really, really difficult and annoying and took me almost two hours. In almost every punching exchange I had to repeatedly rewind it just to catch all the strikes - both guys were moving really, really fast and Machida in particular was frequently throwing punches and kicks almost simultaneously which was really hard to catch without repeated review.
I thought Shogun won but after rewatching the fight and re-reading the scoring system, I can see how the judges gave the first three rounds to Machida.
Thanks for the diligent work. This is quite the resource.
I initially thought Shogun won but after rewatching the fight and reading this, I can see how the judges gave Machida the win. It's a very close fight.