Agreed on that. Nog really didn't let him breathe, so I think at this point Velasquez would chew him up and spit him out. He's definitely got the chops on the ground to threaten Velasquez after he gets taken down, but he's going to get taken down. I think I've seen Werdum described as "technical, but not athletic", which seems about right. And that's unfortunately a death sentence against JDS and Velasquez.
Except he really needs to work on not letting himself get backed up so much when standing up. Against someone like Velasquez, who is great at pressuring forward and much more nimble on the feet than Big Nog or Roy Nelson, he would get backed into a corner pretty easily.